Some of that data holds meaningful signal, but how do we tease that out from noise? Simple: If a player I like is performing well, that’s proof I was right. If he’s struggling? Small sample size.
Okay, maybe that’s not the best way to analyze players. But leaning into information that confirms our priors and brushing aside anything that contradicts them is an easy trap for us to fall into this time of year.
What we might find, though, is a pitcher throwing his fastball harder than in previous years or a hitter showing more power by reaching a new high in exit velocity. It might be something like a hitter with a tangible swing change or a pitcher flashing improved stuff that suggests a change in his current true talent level.
The most interesting level to look at this time of year is Low-A. It’s where we’re getting our first official game looks at many 2024 high school draftees, plenty of international prospects are making their full-season debuts and where we’re typically seeing the youngest players who are in games right now before the complex leagues begin.
Today, we’re looking at 10 prospects in Low-A off to hot starts who I’m buying in on. We’re excluding any prospects already ranked in the top 50 (you already know Brewers No. 1 prospect Jesus Made is good). Instead, this group includes players who in the back half of the Top 100 Prospects list, players with the upside to jump into the Top 100 and sleeper prospects to keep an eye on.
Current Top 100 Prospects
Franklin Arias, SS, Red Sox
The No. 72 prospect in baseball, Arias could be the best prospect in the Red Sox farm system before the end of the year once their “big three” all graduate. Arias is a true shortstop who has already registered multiple highlight reel plays in the field this season. On Saturday, he fielded a ground ball to his backhand going deep in the hole between shortstop and third base on the outfield grass before firing a clean, accurate throw to first base for the out. That came after an even better play three days earlier when Arias did the same thing, only this time, with his momentum taking him toward the left field line, he made a jump throw to first base for the out.
Arias’ hand-eye coordination is evident at the field and at the plate, where he’s off to a .412/.487/.500 start in 39 plate appearances with four walks and five strikeouts. There’s some air in those numbers, however. It’s been a lot of shallow line drives and ground balls getting through the infield, with two of his three doubles sneaking down the right field line including one that was misplayed by the right fielder. But while he will probably never have Marcelo Mayer’s power, Arias has the foundation of a good righthanded swing and the bat control to make frequent contact.
Eduardo Tait, C, Phillies
No. 88 on our Top 100, Tait turns 19 at the end of August, so he’s going to play nearly the entire 2025 season as an 18-year-old. He’ll probably finish the year playing in High-A even though he’s just three months older than our top-ranked 2025 high school catcher. Tait is hitting .281/.378/.656 in 37 plate appearances and has already mashed three home runs through eight games. His latest homer came on a 96 mph fastball that was off the plate inside, with Tait able to keep his hands inside the ball and drop the barrel on it to pull it over the right field wall. There is some overaggressiveness at the plate that Tait will have to tone down, but when he’s swinging at strikes, he doesn’t miss much. With plus raw power, that combination makes him one of the best catching prospects in the lower levels.
Potential Top 100 Prospects
Brandon Clarke, LHP, Red Sox
The Red Sox drafted Clarke out of the State JC of Florida in the fifth round last year. In his first pro start, the 22-year-old looked more like a first-round pick. At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Clarke throws across his body from a low three-quarters slot with a fastball that was 95-99 mph in his debut of four perfect innings with five strikeouts. His upper-80s slider was devastating with both its power and movement, getting hitters to whiff through it on five of six swings against the pitch. Clarke has had Tommy John surgery and a history of erratic control, so there are reasons to question how everything will hold up long term, but the 75% strike rate in his first start is a welcome sign to go with his outstanding stuff.
If you’re looking for a lesser-known pitcher who could rocket up our rankings this year, Clarke is a great name to watch.
Braylon Doughty, RHP, Guardians
In a farm system that leans heavily on hitters, Doughty is one of Cleveland’s best pitching prospects and could make himself a more nationally known name by the end of the year.
The Guardians signed Doughty out of high school as a supplemental first-round pick (No. 36 overall) in 2024. The 19-year-old has recorded 10 strikeouts and walked only one of the 31 batters he’s faced through seven innings, showing starter traits with the stuff to pile up empty swings. A prolific strike-thrower, Doughty complements a low-to-mid 90s fastball with an outstanding curveball. His curve—a pitch he’s thrown more often than his fastball when facing righthanded hitters—has extremely tight rotation and sharp bite to continue as a high swing-and-miss offering as he moves up the ladder.
His changeup was behind the rest of his stuff in high school, but in his last start, he used it to get multiple whiffs, including a particularly good one with heavy tumble for an empty swing against White Sox outfielder Braden Montgomery, a 2024 first-round pick and current Top 100 prospect.
Dasan Hill, LHP, Twins
The arrows continue to point up on Hill. They were pointing that way at this time last year when Hill was a high school senior in Texas with a long, lanky frame and a fastball that had improved to reach 96 mph. Now in pro ball after the Twins drafted him as a supplemental second-round pick, Hill has taken another leap forward. Through two starts, he has a 2.45 ERA, 13 strikeouts and just two walks in 7.1 innings. His fastball has sat in the mid 90s and reached the upper 90s. That’s already excellent velocity for a 19-year-old lefty, and there’s more strength projection remaining in his lean 6-foot-5 build. His low-80s slider is a high-spin pitch that batters have missed on in six of their eight swings against it this year. He hasn’t thrown his changeup much yet, but it has been an effective pitch with good separation off his fastball in limited use.
Luis Peña, SS, Brewers
Peña signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2024 and one year later is already in Low-A Carolina as an 18-year-old ranked as the Brewers’ No. 9 prospect. After hitting .393/.457/.583 with just 15 strikeouts (8.1%) in 184 plate appearances last year, Peña is hitting .343/.442/.400 in 43 plate appearances with six walks and four strikeouts. Peña’s barrel accuracy stands out, as he rarely swings and misses—in or out of the zone—though one of the big questions with him was whether he would be able to develop a more disciplined approach. It’s early, but so far he is swinging less and chasing less, an encouraging development, especially for a player skipping a level. He has a strong 5-foot-11 frame, though his swing is geared more for lower line drives than loft, so it’s a hit-over-power profile for now.
As a teammate of Jesus Made, Peña is splitting time between shortstop and third base. He’s a good athlete, but early on, he has shown he will have to clean some things up defensively—both with both his fielding and throwing—to stick in the infield, though his plus-plus speed could fit in center field, too.
Eric Bitonti, 1B/3B, Brewers
If there’s a hitter with long levers, a big strike zone he has to cover and elevated swing-and-miss risk, I’m usually going to be the low man on that player. With Bitonti, however, I’m in. It’s an unusual profile. He’s a 2023 high school draft pick who was one of the most physical players in his class despite being extremely young for his grade; he’s still going to play the entire season at 19. And for a player his size—listed 6-foot-4, 218 pounds—he moves around well in the infield with good body control. However, with Peña, Made and Filippo Di Turi splitting reps at third base for Carolina, Bitonti has so far played only first base this year instead of third.
Even if the Brewers do keep Bitonti at first base, the offensive upside is there for him to handle that position. He’s hitting .286/.390/.429 through 41 plate appearances and has yet to get into his best tool—his plus-plus raw power. He will step in the bucket and get big with his lefthanded swing, so that power comes with strikeouts, but he’s able to help offset that some with his ability to draw walks. It’s a risky profile, but there’s potential for big payoff if everything clicks.
Slade Caldwell, OF, Diamondbacks
The D-backs drafted Caldwell out of high school in the first round last year (No. 29 overall), and the early returns have been positive: .273/.556/.636 with more walks (13) than strikeouts (10) through 36 plate appearances. Caldwell is small, and he uses that small strike zone to his advantage with an extremely patient approach. He doesn’t chase or even swing much, so he has piled up walks while using a quick, compact swing from the left side to make frequent contact. Caldwell is already strong without much physical projection, so he doesn’t look like he will ever have huge power, but his on-base skills, high overall baseball acumen and plus-plus speed at a premium position in center field could make for a valuable player.
Sleeper Prospects To Watch
Josh Adamczewski, 2B, Brewers
Adamczewski is more of a sleeper than a future Top 100 prospect candidate relative to the other players listed here, but he’s starting to make more of a name for himself this season. He had a lower profile coming out of an Indiana high school as a Ball State commit who the Brewers drafted as a 15th-round pick in 2023. Milwaukee kept him in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League last season, where he hit .336/.472/.478 with 26 walks and 26 strikeouts in 142 plate appearances, and he’s off to a .382/.500/.647 start through 42 plate appearances this year with Low-A Carolina.
Adamczewski has a lefthanded stroke that’s calm, balanced and adjustable, bringing a hit-over-power profile with enough juice to give him a chance for 15-20 home runs. He looks much more natural in the batter’s box than he does in the infield, but if he proves he can stick in the dirt, he could develop into an offensive-oriented second baseman.
A.J. Ewing, OF, Mets
A 2023 high school draft pick, Ewing is repeating the Low-A Florida State League after hitting .228/.345/.344 in 71 games in the league last year. The Mets’ No. 24 prospect, Ewing is hitting .448/.514/.690 with five walks and five strikeouts in 35 plate appearances this year. He’s a lefthanded hitter with a smooth, compact swing who lets the ball travel deep into the hitting zone, and he has been barreling line drives to all fields this season. He smoked a left-on-left slider for a home run at 109 mph on Saturday—up a tick from his highest exit velocity a year ago—and has produced frequent hard contact all year.
A plus runner in center field, Ewing was somewhat of a late bloomer in high school. If these early results continue he rest of the season, he could be in the midst of another jump forward.
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