With the college baseball season just over a week away, I thought it would be a good time to roll out the second batch of “mid-major” draft prospects to follow this spring. I put this note at the start of the first installment last month, but I am not a fan of the monikers “mid-major” or “Power Four.” Like the first group of 13 players, the 11 discussed below are listed in alphabetical order and do not attend an ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC school.
As the season goes on, we’ll continue to highlight other prospects who fit this billing as there are plenty more.
Brooks Bryan, C, Troy
After logging just 60 at-bats as a freshman, Bryan enjoyed a breakout sophomore season in which he hit .279/.381/.589 with 10 doubles, 18 home runs and a Sun Belt-leading 85 RBIs. He earned an invitation to play for Team USA’s Collegiate Team this summer, where he hit a pair of home runs and logged nine RBIs across six games.
Bryan has a physical look at 6-foot-2, 222 pounds with a thick lower-half. He stands tall in the box with a low handset and a slightly-open front side. Bryan wiggles his hands pre-swing, which leads into a load in which his hands drift and he wraps his bat a substantial amount. He also has a high leg lift that leads into a lengthy stride. While there’s present bat speed, it’s a rather long swing with an inefficient path to contact.
Bryan’s best offensive tool is his power. He has shown the ability to drive the baseball with authority to all fields, but especially to the pull side. Bryan’s bat speed combined with his ability to get the ball up in the air on a regular basis enables it to play in-game. Last spring, he posted a 90th percentile exit velocity and maximum exit velocity of 106.2 MPH and 111.1 MPH, respectively. However, the biggest key going forward will be making enough contact to get to it in-game.
While Bryan’s power is above-average, his hit tool lags behind. His contact ability and bat-to-ball skills are below-average, and last spring, he posted an overall contact rate and overall in-zone contact rate of 73% and 81.6%. Bryan is particularly susceptible to spin and picking it up out of the hand, which are the roots of the majority of his whiff and chase. There are some potential tweaks to make and pieces to clean up in his operation, which could help maximize his ability to move the baseball. Bryan has above-average arm strength behind the dish, but his overall defensive skillset—particularly his receiving and actions—will need a coat or two of polish as time goes on.
Callan Fang, RHP, Harvard
Harvard has had four pitchers—Chris Clark, Jay Driver, Sean Matson and Tanner Smith—selected in the last two drafts, and Fang will look to increase that number to five this July. Following a solid freshman season, Fang was lights-out in relief for the Vermont Lake Monsters of the Futures League, to the tune of a 1.14 ERA with 45 strikeouts to just eight walks in 23.2 innings. He carried that momentum over to the spring, where he made the jump from the bullpen to the rotation and compiled a 4.64 ERA with 83 strikeouts to 20 walks en route to taking home Ivy League Pitcher of the Year honors. Fang’s success continued through the summer, as he was a Cape League all-star with the Orleans Firebirds and pitched his way to a 2.15 ERA with 39 strikeouts against nine walks across 29.1 innings.
At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Fang has an average build with some present strength. He works exclusively out of the stretch and attacks from a three-quarters slot. Fang’s arm stroke is a bit stabby and he has a drop-and-drive type operation. His fastball sits in the low 90s and has been up to 94, but it plays well in the top-half of the zone thanks to its riding life.
Fang’s money-makers are his secondary offerings. His low-to-mid-70s curveball has immense depth and takes on a true 12-to-6 shape with some sharpness. It’s a legitimate “moon ball” that’s especially effective against righthanded hitters. Across the spring and summer, it generated a 40% whiff rate and held opposing hitters to a minuscule .083 average.
From this chair, Fang’s most valuable offering is his high-70s-to-low-80s changeup. He throws it with conviction—and in any count—to both left and righthanded hitters. It gets solid separation off his heater and routinely flashes armside fade, as well as late tumbling life. It’s a true out-pitch that across this spring and summer garnered a 54% whiff rate, 42% in-zone whiff rate and a 50% chase rate. The cherry on top with Fang is his pitchability. He locates his entire arsenal, sequences his pitches well and keeps opposing hitters off balance. Simply put, he knows how to pitch which, unfortunately, has become an increasingly rare quality in today’s game.
Jaden Gustafson, OF, Wichita State
Gustafson is an under-the-radar name to keep tabs on this spring. Last spring, he hit .296/.367/.403 with 15 extra-base hits. He followed suit with an outstanding summer in the Jayhawk League, posting a .391/.439/.626 line with 11 doubles, a pair of triples, four home runs, 32 RBIs and 12 walks to just two strikeouts across 115 at-bats.
Gustafson has an athletic frame at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds with particular strength in his lower-half. He stands upright in the box with a high handset and slightly-open front side. Gustafson will drop and drift his hands a bit in his load, but he has plenty of hand speed. He is a small-strider and has a compact operation in which he takes a relatively-direct path to contact.
Gustafson has double-plus bat-to-ball skills, and last season, he posted an 87% overall contact rate and a 93% overall in-zone contact rate, including 94% against fastballs. He also possesses advanced pitch recognition skills and swing decisions, and last year his overall chase rate was 24% with very few of his swings coming outside the shadow zone. Gustafson uses the entire field, he but has a particular knack for going the opposite way. His barrel skills are also advanced.
From this chair, the most intriguing part about Gustafson is his potential power upside. That might sound a little strange considering he has zero collegiate home runs, but he’s a strong kid with some present impact—last spring he posted a 90th percentile exit velocity and maximum exit velocity of 103 and 104.3, respectively—and whose AirPull% last spring was a minuscule 7.7%. The bat and hand speed are there, and I’ll be curious to see what will happen if he can get the ball up in the air more.
Gustafson is a great athlete who profiles best in a corner outfield spot. He can go and get it, and he’s got North-to-South range, as well gap-to-gap range. While his arm is fringy, the athleticism certainly plays.
Grant Jay, C, Dallas Baptist
Jay burst onto the scene as a freshman and hit .319/.445/.755 with 17 doubles, 21 home runs and 62 RBIs across 58 games en route to being named Conference USA’s Freshman of the Year and a second team freshman all-American. He followed suit with a similarly-productive sophomore season in which he posted a .301/.414/.653 with 12 doubles, 21 home runs and 57 RBIs.
At 6-feet tall and 225 pounds, Jay has an ultra-physical build with plenty of natural strength. He has a slightly-crouched stance in the box with a shoulder-high handset and his bat slightly wrapped. Jay has a slight barrel tip in his load and a leg lift leads into a small stride. He has plenty of hand speed and strength in his forearms and wrists, but his swing can get long at times.
Jay’s carrying tool is his comfortably-plus raw power. It plays to all fields, but especially from center field over to the left field foul pole. When he connects with the baseball, it flies, and last spring he posted a 90th percentile exit velocity of 110 MPH, a maximum exit velocity of 116.2 MPH and a 95+% of 60.60%. Additionally, when he makes contact, he consistently gets the ball up in the air. Jay’s tremendous natural strength combined with his hand speed and ability to lift the baseball is a recipe that’s conducive for power.
Jay’s biggest hindrance right now is his hit tool, and his contact skills are well below-average. Last spring, his overall contact rate was just 63%, including an overall in-zone contact rate of 73%. While there is some fastball chase up and out and breaking ball chase down and out, his swing decisions aren’t all that bad. Some of his miss, particularly against fastballs, can be attributed to the length of his swing. Secondaries are also an issue, and last spring he posted whiff rates over 40% against sliders, curveballs and changeups. He struggles to pick it up out of the hand, and that—combined with his long swing—has led to issues. With all of this being said, it’s rather impressive he’s been this productive through his first two college seasons. However, it will need to be a major area of improvement going forward. Jay has improved behind the plate since arriving on campus, though there are still strides to be made, particularly as it pertains to his receiving ability and corralling balls in the dirt.
JB Middleton, RHP, Southern Mississippi
Middleton is an intriguing arm to follow this season. He showed flashes of his stuff as a freshman—particularly during his summer on the Cape in which he worked a 3.24 ERA and struck out 15 across 8.1 innings—but he took a step forward last spring and posted a 4.34 ERA with 45 strikeouts to 25 walks in 37.1 innings.
Middleton is slightly undersized, but has an athletic frame at 6-feet tall and 178 pounds. He has a somewhat up-tempo delivery in which he features a relatively short arm stroke and attacks from a three-quarters slot with plus arm speed. Middleton moves well on the mound, and there is some relatively low-hanging fruit to clean up in his delivery.
Middleton’s fastball sits in the 93-96 mph range, but it has been up to 98 with run and ride through the zone. His command of it is inconsistent at times, but it’s most effective—and generates the most swing-and-miss—when located on the arm side. It didn’t miss a ton of bats last spring, but locating it more consistently—especially in the top half of the zone—should warrant more positive results in that regard.
Middleton’s calling cards are his secondaries. His power, upper-80s gyro slider is effective against both left and righthanded hitters. Middleton has a better feel for it than his fastball and does a nice job of varying its shape. It takes on a power gyro look at times, but at others, it will flash two-plane tilt with more sweep than depth and late gloveside life. Last spring, it generated a 49% miss rate and held opposing hitters to a minuscule .125 average.
Middleton rounds out his arsenal with a mid-to-upper-80s changeup that is a particular weapon against lefthanded hitters, but he will also throw it to righties. He does a nice job of maintaining his arm speed, and it routinely flashes plus with late tumble, as well as plenty of fade to the arm side. Like his slider, it garnered a whiff rate last spring north of 45%.
After being used almost exclusively in relief for the past two seasons, Middleton figures to make the jump to the rotation in this season. There is certainly some reliever risk, but he’s a good athlete with stuff to boot and is a fun ball of clay to mold.
Justin Mitrovich, RHP, Elon
Mitrovich was excellent as a true freshman and pitched his way to a 3.68 ERA with 66 strikeouts to 21 walks across 63.2 innings. Last spring, he worked a 5.06 ERA and collected 96 Ks against 30 BB in 80 IP, but he also showed positive flashes on the Cape this summer and notched 17 strikeouts in as many innings pitched.
Mitrovich has an athletic frame at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds with room to fill out physically. He operated exclusively out of the stretch during the spring but went back to the windup this summer. Mitrovich works on the first base side of the rubber and starts his motion with a small side step before gathering himself. That leads into a high lift and the rest of his operation is up-tempo. There is depth on his long arm stroke, and he attacks from a three-quarters slot with present arm speed and some effort in his delivery.
Mitrovich’s fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range, but it has been up to 96 with some life in the top-half of the zone. Figuring his heater out is going to be the key for him going forward. Mitrovich threw mostly four-seamers during the spring, but he went two-seam heavy during the summer and still generated a whiff rate under 20%. A handful of the latter flashed late armside life, particularly against lefthanded hitters, and both play well in the top half of the zone. Mitrovich will need to iron out its shape in order to maximize it.
Mitrovich’s bread-and-butter offerings are his secondaries. His low-80s changeup is one of the best of its kind in the college ranks. It averaged over 12 mph off his FB last spring and is a legit swing-and-miss pitch against both lefties and righties. He throws it with conviction and will use it in any count, and it consistently flashes fade to the arm side, as well as ample late tumbling life. Mitrovich’s feel for the pitch is highly advanced, and last spring it generated a 52% whiff rate, 47% chase rate and held opposing hitters to a .198 average.
Mitrovich rounds out his arsenal with a low-to-mid-80s slider that is effective mainly against righthanded hitters. It has a gyro look that’s not big in shape, but it flashes some lateral, gloveside life with late bite. The pitch flashed above-average at times last spring and garnered a 45% miss rate while generating whiffs both in and out of the zone. Mitrovich is a strike-thrower who looks the part of a starter at the next level. The biggest key with him will be developing his fastball.
Trace Phillips, RHP/1B, Middle Tennessee State
Phillips is an interesting draft-eligible sophomore on which to keep close tabs. Last spring, he hit .304/.360/.547 with eight doubles, 13 home runs and 47 RBIs, but it’s his ability on the mound that makes him intriguing. His back of the baseball card numbers last season are modest, but there is more than meets the eye.
At 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, Phillips has an athletic, high-waisted frame. In the box, he has a simple setup with an ear-high handset and the bat horizontal above his back shoulder. Phillips has a slight load in which he has a noticeable barrel tip and a small stride. He moves well in the box and has some scissor action with his back leg. Phillips’ pure hit tool is fringe-y, but he has plus raw power and has shown the ability to drive the baseball to all fields.
Phillips’ current prospect status is largely driven by his ability on the mound. His numbers were unimpressive last season, but he took a step forward this fall. There’s some low hanging fruit to clean up in his delivery, but he has a short, whippy arm stroke and attacks from a low-three quarters slot with plenty of arm speed. Phillips’ fastball has been up to 96 mph with riding life through the zone, though his best pitch is a high-70s-to-low-80s changeup. He does a nice job of killing spin on it, and it averaged almost 15 mph off his fastball this fall. It’s a plus pitch that flashes both fade to the arm side as well late tumble.
Phillips completes his arsenal with a mid-80s slider that flashed above-average this fall with sharp, two-plane tilt. Both his changeup and slider profile as legitimate swing-and-miss offerings. Another positive development with Phillips this fall is that his strike-throwing took a step in the right direction.
Grant Richardson, LHP, Grand Canyon
While he’ll unfortunately be out this season with an injury, Richardson is a name to know in this year’s draft. He collected 29 strikeouts across 22 innings as a freshman, but he took a sizable step forward last season and worked a 3.73 ERA with 70 strikeouts to 30 walks in 50.2 innings.
At 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, Richardson has a strong and durable build with physicality throughout his frame. He has a fairly simple operation with a degree of explosiveness. Richardson creates a positive angle with his shoulder tilt and has a deep arm stroke in which there’s a pronounced wrist coil. He attacks from a near over-the-top slot with plenty of arm speed, but will sometimes fly open and pull off. It’s a powerful look.
Richardson’s fastball sits in the 92-95 mph range, but it’s been up to 97 with ample life through the zone. It jumps out of his hand from about a 5-foot-11 release height, and last spring it averaged almost 17 inches of ride and slightly over 10 inches of run. Unsurprisingly, the pitch generates the vast majority of its whiffs in the top-two thirds of the zone and on the arm side of the plate. It consistently gets over the barrels of opposing hitters and generated a 29% miss rate, 30% chase rate and 25% in-zone miss rate last season. I mentioned it above, but most of Richardson’s “misses” will come up and/or out due to him pulling off at times.
Richardson pairs his heater with a mid-to-upper-80s gyro slider. It has a two-plane look with more depth than sweep, as well as present sharpness. He uses it against both righties and lefties—and it’s effective against both—but it’s a particularly tough look for the latter. It flashed above-average last spring and generated a 41% whiff rate and 34% chase rate. It’s at its best when in the bottom-third and down or out of the zone.
Richardson lacks a third pitch right now, which will be key for him to develop in order for him to start professionally. He threw a handful of changeups in the mid 80s last spring, and a couple flashed some fade to the arm side. However, it’s a distant third offering right now. Richardson’s command and control is fringe-average.
Michael Salina, RHP, St. Bonaventure
After throwing 10.1 innings as a freshman at George Mason, Salina entered the portal and eventually committed to St. Bonaventure, where last spring he pitched exclusively as a starter and worked a 4.78 ERA with 64 strikeouts to 23 walks in 58.1 innings. He made one start on the Cape this summer for the Brewster Whitecaps and surrendered a pair of runs with three strikeouts across five innings.
Salina has a strong, athletic build and stands at 6-foot-1, 200 pounds. He operates exclusively out of the stretch and has an explosive, high-effort delivery in which he attacks from a high-three quarters slot with big-time arm speed. It’s an up-tempo, almost intense look. Salina’s fastball sits in the 92-95 mph range, but was up to 98 last spring with carry through the zone. However, it was allegedly up to 102 this fall. While the velocity is there, it’s not a bat-misser at the moment and had a sub-20% miss rate last spring.
Salina pairs his fastball with a mid-80s slider that flashes two-plane tilt with sharpness at times. The shape of it is inconsistent, though, and he uses it predominantly against righthanded hitters. While he threw it just 3% of the time, I’ll be curious to see whether or not Salina ups his changeup usage this spring. It’s apparent he’s still gaining a feel for it, but a few last spring flashed plenty of fade to the arm side with a bit of tumble.
Salina seems destined for the bullpen in pro ball. He’s a two-pitch guy who—at the moment—lacks an out pitch against lefthanded hitters and has a high-effort delivery. Going forward, Salina will need to improve his fastball shape and location in order to get the most out of its velocity. Additionally, his command is scattered and upping his competitive pitch percentage will only benefit him.
Dixon Williams, IF, East Carolina
Williams is a Carolinas player to watch closely this spring. After logging just 12 at-bats as a freshman, Williams enjoyed a breakout sophomore year to the tune of a .308/.406/.490 slash line with 11 doubles, nine home runs and 43 RBIs. He carried that momentum into the summer where he tore up the New England Collegiate League and hit .390/.500/.580 with seven doubles, four home runs, 33 RBIs, 17 stolen bases and more walks (22) than strikeouts (15). He was named the league’s Most Valuable Player and Top Pro Prospect.
Williams has an athletic frame with present strength at 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds. He made an adjustment to his stance between this spring and summer in which he lowered his hands, has a more crouched stance, sits deeper in his base and has a slightly more open front side. It’s a very simple and under control operation with minimal moving parts. Williams has a small load which features his hands drifting slightly and an ultra-small stride. I’m a particular fan of his lower-half. His head stays still, and he’s able to generate easy bat speed. Williams’ swing path is now geared more towards getting the ball up in the air and doing damage.
Williams has plus bat-to-ball skills, and last spring worked an 88% overall in-zone contact rate, including 93% against fastballs. This summer, he boasted a 91% overall in-zone contact rate (93% against fastballs, 96% against sliders). Williams has present barrel skills, and while his swing decisions and approach are both sound, there’s some miss and chase against secondaries down. Changeups, in particular, are his biggest Achilles’ heel, but he does a nice job of staying within the zone for the most part. Williams uses the whole field, though his highest quality of contact comes to the pull side.
He tallied nine home runs and posted a maximum exit velocity of 107.8 MPH last spring, though I’m excited to see what Williams’ power output looks like this season with his refined operation. He didn’t get the ball up in the air a ton during the spring, and his AirPull% was just 23.3%, but this summer his flyball+line drive% increased from 48% to 54%. His flyball% alone increased from 26% to 34%. Williams’ power as a whole grades out as average, though you could make the argument that it’s above-average to the pull side.
The biggest question mark in Williams’ profile is his defense and where he profiles best long-term. He’s an excellent athlete and is in line to man shortstop this spring for ECU, but I think right now the actions—and especially his arm—profile best on the right side of the infield at second base. To round out his profile, Williams runs well once underway and is an effective base stealer.
Zach Yorke, 1B/DH, Grand Canyon
Unlike his teammate in Richardson, Yorke will not miss this season and is a West Coast bat to follow. He burst onto the scene as a freshman and hit .368/.471/.549 with 13 doubles, eight home runs, 61 RBIs and a ridiculous 46 walks to 25 strikeouts. That summer, he enjoyed an excellent 20-game stint on the Cape in which he posted a .338/.425/.487 slash line with two doubles, three home runs, 19 RBIs and 12 walks to six strikeouts. Yorke took a little bit of a step back last spring, but still managed to hit .285/.390/.478 with nine doubles, 11 home runs, 50 RBIs and more walks (41) than strikeouts (38).
Yorke has an extra-large frame at 6-foot-2 and 295 lbs. He has a simple setup in the box in which he has a slightly-open front side and medium-high handset. There is a noticeable barrel tip in his load that’s accompanied by a dropping of his hands, but they don’t drift at all. Yorke is a small-strider and his head stays still throughout his operation. He takes a direct path to contact and has quickness in his hands.
Yorke’s best tool is his hit ability. He has plus bat-to-ball skills, and last spring, he worked an 89% overall in-zone contact rate, including 93% against fastballs. Both his approach and swing decisions are incredibly polished, and last season, his overall chase rate was just 18%. Yorke has an advanced feel for the barrel and uses the entire field, but his highest quality of contact comes to the pull side.
Yorke also has present impact that he doesn’t at all sell out to get to. Last season, he posted a 90th percentile exit velocity and a maximum exit velocity of 105.8 MPH and 110.7 MPH, respectively. The raw power is there with Yorke, especially to the pull side, but he could tap into more game power if he’s able to get the ball up in the air more. His flyball+line drive% last spring was 41.5%. Defensively, Yorke is exclusively a first baseman if anything. He will almost certainly end up as a DH-only, but that really isn’t a knock on his profile since you’re buying the hit-power combination.
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