Image credit:
Roman Anthony (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Jackson Chourio was knocking on the door of the majors with the Brewers heading into the 2024 season. Then just 19 years old, he was determined to leave a lasting impression in spring training, hoping to sneak his way into an Opening Day roster spot.
So when he got a phone call from his agent in December 2023 letting him know that the Brewers were interested in signing him to an extension—without having played a single major league game—Chourio was caught off guard.
“I wasn’t expecting it,” Chourio told Baseball America in Spanish. “But this team has always allowed me to play the game in my own style. They’ve been supportive of me since day one of joining this organization, and it just excites me knowing I’m going to be part of this team for a long time.”
It’s safe to say a lot of people were shocked by the Brewers’ $82 million, eight-year contract, a record-setting deal for a player with no MLB experience. While that situation is uncommon, it had happened before: Luis Robert Jr. (2020), Evan White (2019), Eloy Jiménez (2019), Scott Kingery (2018) and Jon Singleton (2014). The Tigers would later issue an extension to Colt Keith in 2024.
For a young player, being thrown that much money early in a professional career is tempting. An average Joe would jump out of their seat over that much cash offered. But players like Chourio are far from average.
Chourio, now 21, finished third in Rookie of the Year voting last year after hitting .275/.327/.464 with 21 home runs, 79 RBIs and 22 stolen bases while helping the Brewers win the NL Central. Through his production in his first two seasons, it’s safe to say Milwaukee’s contract offer is meeting the return on investment.
When asked if there was any hesitation on signing a contract so early on in his career, Chourio’s face lit up with a smile.
“There was no doubt in signing the contract,” he said. “It was just about reaching an agreement. It was complex. Contracts like that for a young player don’t come around often. I still see being put in that position as a blessing.
“This meant the world to my family.”
We’re starting to see a trend of teams committing to players very early on in their careers. The Red Sox are one team riding that wave. In 2024, they gave Ceddanne Rafaela an eight-year extension worth $50 million after 49 days of MLB service time. This spring, they inked Kristian Campbell to an eight-year extension this valued at $60 million. With two of their other top prospects waiting in Triple-A Worcester—more on this in a moment—they might not be done.
For both the team and the player, long-term contract extensions can be a tricky balance. There can be risks for both sides.
If a prospect doesn’t pan out, the team is on the hook for millions that the player wouldn’t have earned without the guaranteed extension. For instance, the Phillies signed Scott Kingery to a six-year, $24 million extension in 2018. Kingery spent most of the final four years of that contract in the minors, where he would have earned far less without the extension.
But if a prospect turns into a star, that contract extension can also vastly limit a player’s earnings during their peak years. Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has earned $35 million in his career so far. Gleyber Torres reached the majors a year later than Albies, and has earned $18 million more despite having a less productive career. The Braves have two options left at $7 million per year for Albies. Torres earned $14.2 million last year in his final year as an arbitration-eligible player. He earned $15 million this year on a one-year free agent deal.
That being said, let’s take a look at other prospects and young, pre-arbitration MLB players who could be next in line to get an extension of their own if everything aligns.
Prospects
Roman Anthony, OF, and Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox
We already saw the Red Sox pull out the checkbook with Campbell. On a recent episode of Future Projection, Ben Badler advocated for the duo, along with Campbell, to receive extensions. Based on the production both Anthony and Mayer have put up in the minors, there are logical reasons that the Red Sox would want to lock them up long term as well.
Anthony is arguably the most polished hitter in minors. He has elite bat speed that allows him to produce lots of hard-hit balls, as evidenced by a 90th percentile exit velocity of 109 mph in 2024. At just 20 years old, he hasn’t looked out of place as one of the youngest players at Triple-A and the youngest to reach the level in Boston’s system since 1977. All signs indicate that there is no slowing down for Anthony—it’s just a matter of when a spot becomes available with the Red Sox.
Mayer, one of the most talented prospects in the 2021 draft, has seen injuries keep him from reaching 100 games in his first two pro seasons. Out of Boston’s top three prospects, he could be the last to arrive to the show because of those injuries, but when healthy, he’s up there with some of the best hitters in the minors. One flaw is his 47% groundball rate, but he makes up for it in other areas of his game, notably with fielding and base running.
It’s rare to have three position-playing prospects so young in the majors. Boston has never been afraid to spend money on established players and have kept that energy with Campbell and Rafaela. Some may well be spent when Anthony and Mayer arrive at the show.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
There isn’t a hitter hotter in the minors than Kurtz, and, at this pace, he might not be around much longer. The Athletics’ No. 4 overall pick in last year’s draft was one of the most well-rounded hitters in the class. He has seven homers and 22 RBIs in 16 games with a 1.134 OPS at Triple-A Las Vegas. While playing in the PCL will always inflate numbers, the 22-year-old would call Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento home for the next three years.
The A’s have played Brent Rooker in the outfield recently, potentially paving the way for Kurtz to crack the roster, especially with first baseman Tyler Soderstrom being the team’s best hitter early in 2025. If Kurtz’s production translates into the pros, the A’s will have special talent on their hands in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals
At this moment, even the casual baseball fan has heard of what Caglianone brings to the table, dating to when he set Florida’s career home run record during the 2024 College World Series. He hasn’t missed a step since the Royals drafted him sixth overall in 2024, flashing his heralded 70-grade power in his assignments in High-A and the Arizona Fall League last year and getting off to a hot start this year in Double-A. Recently, he smashed an opposite field single with a 120.9 mph exit velocity, which would have ranked the 12th-hardest hit ball in the Statcast era.
Caglianone made it clear in spring training that his goal was to reach the majors this season, and with his level of production, that way well happen. After enduring losing seasons from 2017-2023, the Royals have shown a commitment to remain competitive, giving Bobby Witt Jr. an 11-year, $288 million extension. If Caglianone can show his production early on in the majors, it would be wise to lock him up.
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates; Chase Burns, RHP, Reds and Chase Dollander, RHP, Rockies
We’re putting these three pitchers together because they all have similar profiles. While they each play for small market teams, they are deserving of a mention.
The Pirates may ultimately not be able to afford Paul Skenes or Oneil Cruz, but they could get a steal with Chandler. Pittsburgh is in line to have one of the best front three rotations in baseball with Skenes, a healthy Jared Jones and a rising Chandler. Chandler’s fastball, already one of the best in the minors, has taken a step forward this season, and he’s made improvements with his command.
The Reds gave Burns a $9.25 million signing bonus—surpassing the previous record of $9.2 million set by Skenes—after drafting him No. 2 overall last year. That already speaks volumes about how the Reds feel about the flame throwing righthander, and his limited outings in the spring have only further illustrated his potential. It’ll become more clear just how dominant Burns can be with his fastball and slider (both 70-grade) as he pitches more in 2025 and, similar to 2023 Reds first-rounder Rhett Lowder, he could see a late-season callup.
As far as Dollander, he is a strikeout machine— he logged 169 punch outs across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A in 2024—and has some of the best stuff around. The 23-year-old’s 70-grade fastball resulted a 20.4% swinging-strike rate against opposing hitters. Unlike Burns and Chandler, Dollander has already been called up to the majors where he’s struck out 13 batters in 10.2 innings. The righthander has one flaw that isn’t in his control: he pitches at Coors Field. The last time Colorado made a hefty financial commitment to a pitcher was in 2000 when they gave Mike Hampton eight years, $121 million dollars. Hampton was traded in 2002 after struggling in Denver.
Pre-Arbitration Players
With all of these players, the window to get both sides to agree to an extension may have already passed. As players have significant MLB success, the balance between receiving the security of a long-term extension and the risk of reducing potential future earnings shifts.
Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
Skenes started the All-Star Game as a rookie. At this point, it may be nearly impossible for the Pirates to offer an extension that they are willing to commit to that makes sense for Skenes. The largest contract in Pirates’ history is the eight-year, $106.75 million contract signed by Bryan Reynolds. Skenes would be in line to make much more than that.
Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
De La Cruz signed with the Reds for $65,000 in 2018. That was perhaps the best bargain Cincinnati could have asked for with the super-talented Dominican shortstop. Since then, De La Cruz’s stardom has risen dramatically—and so has his price. The 23-year-old is a true five-tool talent and part of the next wave of dominant MLB shortstops. De La Cruz is set to reach free agency as a 27-year-old. Reaching free agency at that age is what leads to mammoth contracts, so De La Cruz’s bargaining power in any extension talks would be quite significant.
Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics
If this was anytime before 2024, the idea of the A’s giving a player an extension would be unfathomable. Yet, they’ve given a pair of new contracts to Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler, and committed $67 million to Luis Severino. Wilson’s track record and early play in the majors warrants consideration to be next in line. All he does is hit. During his senior year at Grand Canyon, he batted .411 and struck out just five times. He finished his MiLB career with a .401 batting average, and he opened 2025 with a 15-game hitting streak. It’s still a month into the season, but the 23-year-old is looking like a Rookie of the Year candidate. The A’s might want to pull the trigger early on.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
The Rays have a proven track record of developing homegrown players, and specifically in the international market, the team keeps striking gold. Caminero is their latest foreign talent to blossomed. The Rays aren’t known for spending a lot on players, but they extended Wander Franco with an 11-year, $182 million contract before off-the-field issues derailed his once-promising career. Caminero, 21, should show his full potential in his first full season in the majors.
Riley Greene, OF, Tigers
Greene has flat out dominated over the past two years for the Tigers. Drafted with the No. 5 pick in 2019, he lived up to that potential by breaking out with 24 home runs and 74 RBIs last season and playing in his first All-Star Game. As we saw with Colt Keith, the Tigers aren’t afraid of locking up pre-arbitration players. But they also have to consider reigning AL Cy Young Award-winner Tarik Skubal, who is a free agent after the 2026 season and will come with a hefty price tag. Greene would come at a cheaper price, and despite his slow start to the 2025 season, has shown he can be an impact player.
This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.
