13 MLB Free Agents Receive Qualifying Offers

Today was the deadline to extend Qualifying Offers to outgoing free agents, and the following 13 free agents got the offer from their respective teams:

SS Willy Adames, Brewers
1B Pete Alonso, Mets
3B Alex Bregman, Astros
RHP Corbin Burnes, Orioles
LHP Max Fried, Braves
OF Teoscar Hernández, Dodgers
LHP Sean Manaea, Mets
RHP Nick Martinez, Reds
RHP Nick Pivetta, Red Sox
OF Anthony Santander, Orioles
RHP Luis Severino, Mets
OF Juan Soto, Yankees
1B Christian Walker, Diamondbacks

The offer is a one-year deal for 2025 worth $21.05 million, and can be accepted any time until November 19.

Although I wouldn’t say there were any enormous shocks today among the offers, I will say that a trio of pitchers – Nick Martinez, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino – would seemingly have their markets hampered significantly if they were attached to draft pick compensation. I think there’s a pretty good chance one or two or all three of those guys take the offer. It would, on the one hand, thin out the free agent starter market, but it would also fill three rotation-needed holes. So net zero impact, I suppose. (You could maybe squint and include Sean Manaea in this group, but I think he’ll pretty clearly reject. If I had to rank them in order of likelihood to accept, I’d probably go Martinez, Severino, Pivetta, Manaea.)

The other arguable surprise is Christian Walker, who is absolutely worth $21 million as the level of performance he’s provided the last few years, but will play next season at age 34. Is he a guarantee to give you another 2-3 win season? The Diamondbacks are betting yes, because there’s a decent chance he accepts, too.

From here, the players who decline the offer will then be attached to draft pick compensation for the rest of the offseason. Teams signing them will have to give up a draft pick (or two, plus IFA funds, depending on their market size and luxury tax status). Teams losing the Qualified Free Agent will add a draft pick (the location of which depends, again, on market size and luxury tax status). The full particulars of the Qualifying Offer and Draft Pick Compensation can be found here.

In signing one of these players, the Cubs, as a team expected to be over the luxury tax, would give up their second rounder and fifth rounder in 2025 (and associated bonus pool slot values), and $1 million in international free agent bonus pool funds.

We do think they are at least going to be considering a guy like Max Fried, and maybe Corbin Burnes or Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso (though I’m skeptical about a serious pursuit of each of those three for various reasons), so they may very well have to give up the extra cost to get their guy. Historically, the Cubs have avoided qualified free agents wherever possible, but they did sign Fried’s former teammate, Dansby Swanson, a couple years ago even though he was a qualified free agent. Will history repeat itself?

I tend to think the Cubs will avoid the lower-tier players who received offers, though, as they’re not going to want to give up multiple draft picks and IFA money to sign, for example, Nick Pivetta.

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