Normally, I focus on veteran running backs in this series. I don’t include rookies I think will have great NFL debuts because they aren’t really “breaking out” from anything. Given all the rookie coverage I offer each year, it’s also fun to highlight the veterans who are being overlooked. That said, this draft class essentially told me, “Too bad, tough cookies.” (Mmm, cookies!)
If I eliminated running backs with a previous RB1 finish and didn’t include rookies, I’d struggle to find one breakout this year. So, in an unprecedented event, this year’s breakout running backs piece will include rookies only.
2025 Breakout Running Backs — Rookies Only
Ashton Jeanty, LV
Case For: Even if Jeanty “only” has a Bijan Robinson-like rookie season, he’d still be a Top 10 RB. Next!
Case Against: He gets hurt?
RB1 Likelihood: 9.5/10 (-0.5, only for injury risk)
TreVeyon Henderson, NE
Case For: All the “E”s in his name stand for “explosive.” Henderson has Top 20 upside, even in a timeshare. And he doesn’t have to be limited to a timeshare, as Henderson has three-down ability. For a fantasy comparison, touch-wise, think of James Cook. Rhamondre Stevenson has struggled with performance and injury since his strong 2022 season.
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Case Against: The Patriots offense could limit Henderson’s ceiling, including touchdowns. Head coach Mike Vrabel might purposefully limit the workload due to Henderson’s injury history. The average fantasy points needed to finish RB12 the past 10 years has been 221.6, and there has been just one instance of a running back having fewer than 200 touches and reaching the Top 12: James White in 2018, thanks in part to 87 receptions and 12 total touchdowns. Also, for Top 12 running backs without double-digit touchdowns, the minimum workload over the past 10 seasons was 272 touches.
RB1 Likelihood: 6.5/10
Omarion Hampton, LAC
Case For: Similar to 2023 draftees Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, the gap from Jeanty to Hampton is not as wide as some make it out to be. Hampton possesses workhorse ability, including significant receiving upside. In fact, you could use Robinson’s 2024 campaign (RB4) as the statistical ceiling for Hampton. The Chargers, under Jim Harbaugh, have a high-quality rushing offense, which included a combined 296 carries for 1,270 yards and 13 touchdowns for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, neither of whom played a full season. It helps that the Chargers have a really good offensive line.
Case Against: Najee Harris has been rather volume-reliant, but he’s still a productive running back with four-straight 1,000+ rushing yards seasons. Weeks 3-4 were the only games Dobbins had over 60.0% of the RB touches with Gus Edwards active. The Chargers have one of the toughest schedules for running backs … on paper.
RB1 Likelihood: 6.5/10
RJ Harvey, DEN
Case For: Harvey is similar in style to Alvin Kamara, who not only was an RB1 under Sean Payton but the No. 1 RB1 in 2020. In fact, Kamara put up 274.4 fantasy points during his rookie season, finishing third in fantasy behind Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell. Audric Estime is a thumper, and Jaleel McLaughlin is a nice complementary piece, but neither has the upside of Harvey with his burst, elusiveness and receiving. Clearly, Payton believes the same, as during this write-up, the Broncos signed J.K Dobbins. Even so, Harvey doesn’t move much in my ranks, as quick mathing of my early projections (coming soon!) spit him out as a mid-low RB2. Oh, and the Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
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Case Against: There are workload questions and snap-share risks, given Harvey’s struggles with pass blocking. Payton uses multiple running backs, including four active ones on game day, at times. Somewhat a chicken-and-egg situation, but the Broncos’ rushing offense finished mid-pack with just 12 touchdowns. Dobbins was recently signed, raising serious concerns that this backfield could become a full-blown committee and that anyone but Harvey sees the goal-line work.
RB1 Likelihood: 5.0/10
Quinshon Judkins, CLE
Case For: Immediate lead option. Judkins has some overlap with Brian Robinson and Jordan Mason as an appealing RB2 … if given 65% or more of the work in Cleveland (more on that shortly). When drafted, Judkins had little preventing him from assuming a workhorse role (or one close to it).
Case Against: The Browns followed up their early second-round Judkins pick by taking Dylan Sampson in Round 4. Sampson is a speedy weapon with some similarities to Justice Hill. Also, Jerome Ford is no slouch despite likely falling behind Judkins. The offensive line isn’t what it was years ago, which, coupled with a likely low-scoring offense, will hamper any running back, even before factoring in a shared workload.
RB1 Likelihood: 4.5/10
Kaleb Johnson, PIT
Case For: Johnson is a power back who fights for yards and rarely goes down easy — in other words, a tailor-made replacement for Najee Harris. For all the fantasy managers screaming the past two years, the Steelers haven’t shown the willingness to let Jaylen Warren be a true lead/workhorse. And, we know how reliant they have been on the running game since Ben Roethlisberger retired. They are second only to the Eagles in Rush% in goal-to-go situations (62.6%) since Big Ben’s exit, and Harris had 58 of those rushes over the past three seasons. That’s the fourth-most attempts among running backs in that span, and that’s with Warren in the mix.
Case Against: Power backs carry more risk in fantasy due to limited passing game upside, especially when the second option is good in that area. The backfield split adds risk already. Warren could look and perform better, as he did in comparison to Harris, and get the lead. If Warren leads, Johnson’s floor is more worrisome, as a power complementary piece could see a 30% share, whereas a nice receiving option would normally see more, around 40%, or even 45-50%. The offensive line is still worrisome.
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RB1 Likelihood: 4.0/10
Cam Skattebo, NYG
Case For: Tough as nails. Grittier than this … guy?
A good receiver with three-down ability, Skattebo brings something the Giants have lacked for some time — unrelenting power. And they could lean into the run more often, given the quarterback situation. Even if Skattebo is in a timeshare, there’s a great chance he’s the goal-line option.
Case Against: Not overly elusive. Tyrone Tracy is no slouch and is still in the mix to lead in touches, similar to Warren in Pittsburgh. The offense could easily limit any running back for the Giants, given the potential lack of scoring and offensive line concerns. The schedule — albeit, again, on paper — is brutal for any position.
RB1 Likelihood: 3.0/10
Bhayshul Tuten, JAX
Case For: Tuten is not only speedy, but he’s also shown great ability at getting outside and to the edge with nice moves in space, making defenders miss. Head coach Liam Coen has no ties to Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, drafting Tuten in Round 4, LeQuint Allen in Round 7 and adding Ja’Quinden Jackson as an undrafted free agent. Hopefully, Coen can maximize Trevor Lawrence and this offense, which produced a Top 5 fantasy RB finish for Etienne in 2023.
Case Against: Etienne has been sorely inefficient, but his career isn’t dead … yet. Coen helping Etienne rebound isn’t out of the question. Tuten isn’t overly powerful, has fumbling concerns and won’t shed many tackles. That means whether it’s Etienne, Bigsby or even Allen, someone is likely sharing the touches. While Coen has been known to lean on his lead, there is still the potential for a full-blown committee, and the offensive line appears questionable at best.
RB1 Likelihood: 3.0/10
Veteran honorable mention
Jordan Mason, MIN — Mason has been extremely efficient in his opportunities with 5.3 YPC and 8.7 YPR. Granted, that came in Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers’ offense, but Kevin O’Connell has proven to be one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. You could argue there isn’t much, if any, of a downgrade for Mason. Aaron Jones had over 300 touches for the first time in his career, partly due to the lackluster backup options, and he’s now 30 years old. Mason would need a Jones injury to break out, but if you’re looking for a high-end backup to target in drafts, Mason could push into the RB1 tier if Jones gets hurt.
(Top photo of Ashton Jeanty: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
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