Ohio State (11-2) may have suffered a third-consecutive, flag-planting defeat at the hands of their archrival Michigan to conclude the regular season, but they didn’t let that disappointment obfuscate the overall goal of winning the CFP National Championship.
In the first round of the CFP Playoffs, OSU snuffed out Tennessee’s passing offense (14-of-31, 104 yards, 0-to-0 ratio) rendering the Vols unable to climb out of an early 21-0 first quarter deficit enroute to a 42-17 first round victory. Against Oregon, DC Jim Knowles held them to -23 rushing yards on 28 carries as OSU opened the game with 5 consecutive explosive 30+ yard touchdowns before the Ducks even scored a point.
Last round Texas managed to accrue just 58 yards and 2.0 yards per carry on the ground, with the Buckeyes forcing the SEC’s most complete offense to play one dimensional ball. Ohio State DC Jim Knowles picks the weakest offensive link of each team they play, and he completely takes it away.
OSU’s devastating offense ranks Top 10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and marginal efficiency. The main areas of weakness on offense are the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 78th with a 9.2% blitz down sack rate, and a somewhat elevated 10.2% blown run block rate that checks in at 94th nationally.
Defensive OSU is elite, ranking first overall in FBS according to SP+. Their secondary is facing the fifth-fewest deep passes in the country, with just 9.3% of passes occurring 20+ yards downfield. OSU’s elite defensive line ranks fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a sensational 9.8%% sack rate, causing teams to rely on quick, structured throws. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat elevated 60.1% completion rate (63rd), but still rank 3rd overall in EPA/dropback, so the short yardage checkdowns and screens have not hurt them.
Notre Dame (12-1) didn’t let a disappointing Week 2 loss to 7-5 MAC program Northern Illinois derail their season, with ND ripping off 10 straight games to punch their ticket to the CFP Playoff. Their 63rd ranked schedule included signature wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and USC. To their credit, all of Notre Dame’s regular season victories were by 10+ points with the exception of a 31-24 win over Louisville where the Irish posted a 79%-win expectancy.
ND had the honor of hosting the first College Football Playoff game held on a college campus when they welcomed in-state rival Indiana in the first round. They quickly jumped out to a comfortable 27-3 lead before IU scored two late touchdowns with under 1:30 left in regulation to make it a somewhat deceptive 27-17 final. The Irish defense created two crucial fumbles while holding UGA to a 13.3% third/fourth down conversion rate in their 23-10 Round 2 victory. CB Christian Gray made the game-changing interception late in the fourth quarter to put the Irish in position for Mitch Jeter to hit the deciding field goal 27-24.
Though ND lost two NFL-caliber tackles from last year’s offensive line, they haven’t lost a step in the run game ranking second in EPA/rush while averaging 6.5 yards per non-sack carry and a sensational 3.97 YAC that leads the nation. Their secondary is certifiably elite, ranking 1st nationally in passing success rate (29.7%), EPA/dropback and completion rate (48.7%).
The Notre Dame pass attack thrives on efficiency, ranking 24th in success rate (45.6%) and 15th with a 66.2% passing completion rate, but it comes at the expense of big play ability, ranking 131st in passing explosiveness with just 11.5% of completions gaining 20+ yards. Their run defense has shown some vulnerability with star DT Riley Mills out, as the Irish rank 121st in stuff rate (14.9%) and 50th in rush success rate allowed (41.2%).
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Game Details and How to watch the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship Game – Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
· Date: Monday, January 20th, 2025
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· City: Atlanta, GA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN
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Game odds for 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final Notre Dame vs. Penn State
- Moneyline: Ohio State (-350), Notre Dame (+280)
- Spread: Ohio State -8.5
- Over/Under: 45.5 points
Last week’s lookahead line had Ohio State favored by-6.5/7 in this hypothetical matchup, however the market opened at OSU -9.5 and is still showing a wide range of -7.5 at Draft Kings to -9.5 on Bet Rivers. Bet MGM posted the best OSU moneyline at -350, while Bet Rivers is offering +310 on Notre Dame. The initial game total of 46.5 points ticked down slightly to 45.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“I was fortunate to have picked and played Ohio State vs. Notre Dame to be in the National Championship Game on NBC Sports’ Bet The Edge program before Round 1 of the Playoffs, so I’m playing with house money at this point. Though I initially selected Notre Dame to be the National Champion, the way Ohio State has elevated their play after their disappointing upset loss at the hands of Michigan has swayed me enough to back Ohio State while laying the 7.5 points.”
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BetMGM College Football Highlights: National Championship Game
“Betting on the spread is coming in very balanced, which we expect to continue throughout the week. We anticipate the book to need an outright Buckeyes win, which is also favorable from a futures perspective.” – Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM
Quarterback matchup for the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship Game – Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
- Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard spent his first three seasons at Duke, breaking out in 2022 but regressing in 2023 due to a nagging ankle injury that hampered his productivity, completing just 57% of his throws with a 3-to-3 ratio. Now completely healthy, Leonard is completing 66% of his throws with a 19-to-8 ratio and an 82nd percentile offensive grade that ranks 20th among Power Four signal callers. Leonard’ dual-threat ability allows him to evade the rush effectively with a 12% pressure-to-sack rate (6th in P4), while posting three consecutive seasons with a rushing grade of 80%+.
- Ohio State: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons running the Kansas State offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s dominant offense that is defeating their opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game, which is the highest win differential in the nation. He’s completing a surgical 72.4% of his throws (2nd in FBS) and is working with future first-round NFL Draft wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient pass attack ranks 2nd in success rate (55.1%) and 3rd in yards per dropback (8.6) despite throwing just 10.2% of their passes 20+ yards downfield (121st). Howard’s 84th percentile passing grade ranks 11th among power four signal callers and is the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous high being 72.7.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Trends & recent stats
- Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% this season, best in FBS. Notre Dame DB Xavier Watts has intercepted 12 passes since the 2023 season, tops among all FBS Defensive Players.
- Notre Dame is 9-1 (.900) against the spread when intercepting at least 1 pass this season, best among power conference teams. (Average: .585)
- Riley Leonard has averaged just 10.6 yards per completion this season, 5th-lowest among P4 quarterbacks.
- Notre Dame RBs have averaged 20.4 yards per reception in the 4th quarter this season, best among FBS programs.
- Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 2,915 passing yards in 15 games this season (194 YPG), 102nd among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 161.1 passing yards per game this season, best among FBS defenses.
- Notre Dame has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 49 of 472 carries this season, 18th-best in FBS
- Notre Dame is 20-4 (.800) against the spread when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season, 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .539)
- Jeremiyah Love has averaged 7.4 Yards per Carry this season, best among power conference rushers. Jadarian Price has rushed for 10 or more yards on 21 of his 100 carries this season, 4th-best among P4 rushers.
- Ohio State’s WRs have averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season, 23rd-best among FBS WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season, 21st-best among FBS defenses.
- Ohio State opponents have averaged 10.3 Passing Attempts per TD in the Red Zone this season, number one among Power Conference Teams. Ohio State has allowed a completion rate of just 39% in the Red Zone this season, best in the Big Ten.
- TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 10 or more yards on 29 of his 118 carries this season, best among Power Conference Running Backs.
- Will Howard has rushed for 7 TDs in the Red Zone this season, most among Big Ten Quarterbacks
- Quinshon Judkins has picked up first downs on 48% of his rush attempts in short yardage situations this season, 4th-worst among Big Ten Running Backs.
- Ohio State is 2-6 (.222) against the spread when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2023 season, 6th-worst among Power Conference programs. (Average: .425)
- Ohio State is 3-6 (.273) against the spread when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, 14th-worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .399)
- Games involving the Buckeyes have gone Under in 73% of their games when giving 4 or more points since the 2023 season, 8th-among Power Conference Teams. (Average: 52%)
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