Changes to the 2025 College Football Playoff are underway with a new seeding model set to debut this fall. First-round byes remain, but they will now go to the selection committee’s top-four seeds independent of conference championships.
“After evaluating the first year of the 12-team Playoff, the CFP Management Committee felt it was in the best interest of the game to make this adjustment,” CFP executive director Rich Clark said in a released statement. “This change will continue to allow guaranteed access to the Playoff by rewarding teams for winning their conference championship, but it will also allow us to construct a postseason bracket that recognizes the best performance on the field during the entire regular season.”
In essence, we’re getting a true power rating of the nation’s best teams for the postseason while retaining the auto-bid designations for winners within the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Group of Five ranks.
Projecting how next season’s playoff bracket may look seven months in advance is an exercise on roster talent, expectations, game-by-game predictions and where each of these programs will be at the end of the year.
So, let’s look ahead at how things may shake out as straight seeding will now be implemented when constructing the College Football Playoff bracket this fall.
College Football Playoff
Quarterfinals
| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 1 |
Rose Bowl |
(1) Ohio State vs. (8/9) Winner |
|
Jan. 1 |
Sugar Bowl |
(2) Texas vs. (7/10) Winner |
|
Jan. 1 |
Orange Bowl |
(3) Penn State vs. (6/11) Winner |
|
Dec. 31 |
Cotton Bowl |
(4) Clemson vs. (5/12) Winner |
First round
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Notre Dame Stadium |
(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) Navy | (4) Iowa State |
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Tiger Stadium |
(8) LSU vs. (9) Miami | (1) Ohio State |
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Bryant-Denny Stadium |
(6) Alabama vs. (11) Iowa State | (3) Clemson |
|
Dec. 19 or 20 |
Autzen Stadium |
(7) Oregon vs. (10) Georgia | (2) Texas |
Breaking down projected CFP field with straight seeding
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion): The defending national champions have a new-look team after heavy NFL Draft losses, but it should be smooth-sailing for the Buckeyes once the season opener against fellow elite Texas is out of the way.
No. 2 Texas (SEC champion): After finishing behind Georgia in the SEC last fall and ultimately succumbing in the playoff semifinals for the second straight year, the Longhorns have unfinished business at the top of the rankings. Arch Manning takes center stage for a team that’s as talented as any other nationally.
No. 3 Penn State: Will the selection committee dock the Nittany Lions for potentially playing in the Big Ten Championship Game? That’s something playoff administrators are looking at moving forward. Penn State should be favored in every regular-season game this fall except Ohio State.
No. 4 Clemson (ACC champion): Even if Dabo Swinney’s Tigers dropped both of their games this season against SEC competition like they did last fall, an 11-2 finish as the ACC champion should be enough to warrant a top-four seed with the selection committee if they wreck shop against league opponents. The upcoming opener against fellow projected playoff team LSU is one of Week 1’s most appetizing matchups.
No. 5 Notre Dame: The anticipation of an encore playoff appearance is the goal for Marcus Freeman and Co. after nearly bringing the program a national championship last season. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price lead a rushing attack that should be one of college football’s most potent.
No. 6 Alabama: Guess who’s back? This is a pressure-packed year for Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide after failing to impress a season ago as one of several SEC teams left out of the playoff with nine wins. Anchored by the league’s top secondary and rising superstar Ryan Williams, Alabama will be a national threat.
No. 7 Oregon: Given the lofty expectations in Eugene, this would be a small step back for the Ducks after dismantling the rest of the Big Ten as a conference newcomer. Dan Lanning retooled his roster in the transfer portal, and the addition of five-star freshman wideout Dakorien Moore gives Oregon another elite option in the passing game.
No. 8 LSU: This program exhausted resources during the offseason to ensure the 2025 season is Brian Kelly’s best in Baton Rouge. The top-ranked portal haul and the return of Garrett Nussmeier under the center gives the Tigers a fighting chance to not only compete for a league championship, but perhaps they can win it.
No. 9 Miami: Mario Cristobal’s handing the keys to the offense over to Carson Beck following Cam Ward’s Heisman finalist campaign with the Hurricanes. Miami’s schedule is challenging, but there’s enough big-time opportunities to impress the committee and get to double-digit wins with an at-large invite.
No. 10 Georgia: Don’t shovel dirt on the Bulldogs just yet after a stunning loss to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl and mass loss of talent to the NFL. Kirby Smart has been here before and is one of only two active head coaches with multiple national titles.
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champion): Assuming the Big 12 champion this season has multiple losses, this is where they would likely end up. Iowa State reached the league title game in 2024 before a complete failure of sorts against Arizona State.
No. 12 Navy (AAC champion): A surprise pick to win the AAC as the Group of Five’s playoff representative, the Midshipmen welcome back quarterback Blake Horvath and a host of starters. The only way the Group of Five’s auto-bid climbs into the top-10 seeds in 2025 is if there’s an unbeaten. Navy does play Notre Dame in a spotlight matchup this season, and the selection committee may decide to avoid a rematch by altering the final seeding, here.
Don’t see your team? Check out Brad Crawford’s complete post-spring bowl projections.
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