UCLA played ten Q1 games and went 3-7. They rank 118th in xFIP and 91st in SIERA as a pitching staff, and if you’ve read my other writeups, I put a lot of emphasis on pitching. The lineup is led by Roch Chowlosky, who has been incredible this year; however, the offense is often too reliant on him, and in a short series, that could come back to bite them.
Irvine rakes, but their pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired as well. They rank inside the top 60 in most metrics, but barely. They rank 53rd in ERA, 56th in WHIP, 47th in xFIP, 38th in SIERA, 46th in K-BB, and 55th in FIP. Irvine also didn’t have a tough schedule, ranking 61st in SOS.
The Sun Devils can pitch. They have the seventh highest strikeout rate and the tenth highest K-BB ratio in the nation. While the ERA and WHIP don’t scream “elite,” the underlying metrics love this staff. They rank 10th in xFIP and 12th in SIERA.
Now, college baseball fans likely cringe as I gush about their pitching, because ASU has been highly inconsistent on the mound. It’s either incredible or horrible, and a little in between.
That’s why I like leaping with them. It’s an upside play on their pitching being able to string together a few good starts, and their offense coming to play. They put the ball in play constantly, posting the 11th-best batting average (.316) in the nation with one of the lowest strikeout rates (15.2%). It’s consistent, and it’s powerful, as they have posted a .520 SLG as a team with 84 home runs.
With Arizona State, I get an offense that’s always putting the ball in play, and a pitching staff whose best attribute is limiting the number of balls in play. Arizona State is volatile, but in a wide-open region, +400 is worth the price, and I would play them down to +325. I am risking 0.25 Units on Arizona State to advance.
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