There’s plenty of movement in today’s mock compared to version 1.0 published back in early March. The draft order itself is even different after the Red Sox acquired the 33rd pick from the Brewers.
Ballpark chatter over the last few weeks has largely been about the lingering uncertainty at the top of the class. Scouts have lamented the lack of polished college hitters to pick from at the top, especially compared to a strong 2024 group. A deep high school shortstop group could benefit from that on draft day, and in today’s mock, that position group accounts for nearly a quarter of the first 30 picks.
There’s also a new name in the 1-1 spot for the Nationals, though cases could be made for at least a half dozen other players.
We’re still far enough away from the draft itself that we’re attempting to align players in the right regions of the board. Very few of the team/player connections feel strong at this point. Decision-makers throughout the first round have plenty of uncertainty about narrowing down targets and understanding who might actually be available for their pick.
There’s plenty of talk about deal hunting at this stage given the nature of the class. That has also been the case in each of the last four drafts, however, so it seems more par for the course for the industry in general than anything new for 2025 in particular.
Enough chit chat, let’s get to what you came for.
1. Nationals — Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS
We could have the exact circumstances in 2025 for a high school righthander to finally go first overall. You need an outlier player at the position as well as a muddled top-end field of prospects that doesn’t provide the exceptional upside and safety combo GMs are looking for. Hernandez pitched exceptionally in his heavily scouted NHSI outing last week. He threw his fastball in the 94-98 mph range and touched 99 in his final frame while showing every bit of a 70-grade changeup in the process.
Hernandez is an equivalent draft talent to both Jackson Jobe (2021) and Hunter Greene (2017), the only two high school righties who have been selected inside the first five picks in the last nine drafts. Both players had strong 1-1 arguments in hindsight. Since both Jobe and Greene were at the top of 2021 and 2017 draft classes that had similarly muddled top-end prospects around them, they could serve as useful case studies for teams weighing the pros and cons of taking a shot on a high school righty this year. If the Nationals want to chase the player with the highest upside available, Hernandez is probably the guy.
Florida State lefthander Jamie Arnold, Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette and Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday feel like the favorites at each of the other three demographics, though it’s very much still a wide open race.
2. Angels — Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
This could be a great scenario for the Angels if they want to continue taking fast-track college players. Many scouts have mentioned that Arnold could pitch in the majors as soon as next year. He has one of the safest profiles in the class while also offering solid middle-of-the-rotation upside. He scuffled a bit in his starts against Miami (4 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K) and Notre Dame (4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K) but has been rock solid in each of the last two weekends against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. In total, he owns a 2.40 ERA over eight starts and 41.1 innings with a 34.1% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate.
There are already rumblings about the Angels preferring to cut a deal at this pick. That would be unsurprising. In each of the last two years picking inside the top 10, the team has signed players to under slot deals. There are plenty of deal-seeking rumors throughout the first round at this time, though, and it’s not something exclusive to Los Angeles.
3. Mariners — Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
Holliday has been hitting plenty of homers in his senior season with Stillwater High. On Friday this week, he has a high-profile matchup with Fort Cobb-Broxton High and fellow first-round shortstop Eli Willits. Holliday has less offensive competition at the top of the draft today than he did entering the season, and his track record as a hitter and huge raw power upside should make him a relatively safe bet to go off the board quickly. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be in play with any of the first five teams in the draft with many of the teams behind that range wondering if they’ll even have a shot at him.
4. Rockies — Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
If the draft were today, Arquette would probably be the first college hitter selected. His name is mentioned frequently when teams discuss the group of players expected to go off the board early. His combination of power, position profile and spring performance are alluring to every team. Through 32 games he has hit .350/.463/.692 with 10 home runs, nine doubles, a 17.3% strikeout rate and a 12.7% walk rate.
5. Cardinals — Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
We’ll talk about “profiles” a lot in today’s mock draft. In lieu of hitters teams are enamored with, there might be a flight to historically-safe profiles like no-doubt up-the-middle defensive players with contact skills. Houston fits that to a tee. He’s being viewed as one of the safest profiles in the class. While he might not have the typical upside associated with a first overall pick, his reliable shortstop defense and track record of making a ton of contact should get him off the board inside the first 10 picks. If he does, that’ll be three straight years for Wake Forest producing a top 10 pick. The Cardinals also seem to prize hitters who make tons of contact in the zone in recent drafts.
6. Pirates — Billy Carlson, SS/RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS
Carlson checks a lot of the boxes mentioned above with Marek Houston. He’s a dynamic shortstop defender who is essentially a lock to stick at the position in the long term. His strong contact skills give teams a lot of excitement about the hitter he will be in a few years as he layers more strength onto a frame that has plenty of room to add more. Carlson only had a pair of hits in his four games at the NHSI, but he drove the ball hard in the air to the opposite field in a few at-bats and also flashed solid pop in batting practice. I’ve talked with scouts who see him as a better prospect than Konnor Griffin, who the Pirates took at No. 9 in 2024. It sounds like there are a number of teams picking the 11-20 range who want a shot at Carlson but might not get it.
7. Marlins — Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
LaViolette slipped out of the No. 1 spot in the class because of a slow start, but he’s been quietly plugging along ever since. He’s inching up closer to a .300 batting average for the season and has produced just as well against conference competition as he did during non-conference play—something many hitters in the class cannot claim. Through 35 games, LaViolette is slashing .293/.461/.610 with 10 home runs, a career-low 20.6% strikeout rate and a career-high 23% walk rate. I see no reason why a strong finish to the season can’t vault him back up into the 1-1 discussion given his toolset and the competition he’s facing in the class.
8. Blue Jays — Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS
As noted above, Willits has a significant opportunity to make noise later this week in a matchup with Ethan Holliday and Stillwater High. He’s a model darling already given his age, performance history and defensive profile. Toronto clearly values the age component and, given their pick of Arjun Nimmala at 20th overall in 2023, this selection would make a lot of sense for them. Willits has a legitimate chance to be the first shortstop off the board, and I could see him in play as high as first overall. At this point, it feels to me that he’s more likely to go first overall than to slide out of the first 10 picks.
9. Reds — Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
I’ve been hearing Bremner’s name less frequently at the very top of the draft in recent weeks. His stuff has been better than his performance, but his performance has been just fine in the Big West (though. other starters in the SEC can boast much better single-season resumes). What keeps him this high for now is a fastball averaging 95.1 mph, a better secondary pitch in his changeup than his closest competition and excellent control that creates a safe starter profile. His grip on SP2 status in the class is weakening though.
10. White Sox — Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Doyle showed a few cracks in the armor against Florida, Alabama and South Carolina to start his SEC slate, but he then slammed the door against Texas A&M (6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K) and Ole Miss (8.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 14 K) in his last two turns. Through nine starts and 51 innings, Doyle has a 2.47 ERA with a 48.2% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He leads Division I pitchers with 85 strikeouts, and his 40.1 K-BB% is the only mark in the country north of 40%. His fastball is still running an incredible 44% miss rate and, despite some questions, his changeup and slider both have miss rates north of 40%, as well.
11. Athletics — Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS, San Antonio
Cunningham is getting less top-of-the-draft buzz than other high school shortstops like Holliday, Carlson and Willits, but it gets reiterated over and over again that he might be the best pure hitter available—period. That distinction shouldn’t last long in any draft class, and this year it should make him a top 15 pick pretty safely.
12. Rangers — Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP/1B, Sunset HS, Portland, Ore.
Schoolcraft’s control was a bit scattered in his first outing of the year, but he is still a 6-foot-8 high school lefthander who generates mid-90s velocity with ease. He has an advanced changeup and flashes of a biting slider, as well. He’s still hitting for his high school team and has huge raw power from the lefthanded batter’s box, which will lead teams to dream about what he will look like after a few years focused on pitching only.
13. Giants — Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Like Doyle, Witherspoon has pitched well all season with real swing-and-miss stuff. He began the year as a first-round talent and has only improved his profile with a more diverse pitch mix, much better control and fastball that is averaging 96.4 mph. His last three outings haven’t been high-strikeout games, but he has also lowered his ERA to 2.08 in that stretch and limited Alabama, LSU and Vanderbilt to a combined five earned runs in 17 innings. If teams inside the top 10 picks aren’t inspired with their hitting options, I could easily Witherspoon in that range.
14. Rays — Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS
Hall has been on a rocket ship all spring, and now I’m getting some feedback from teams picking in the 20s who aren’t sure whether he’ll be available for their first pick. His overall profile isn’t too different from Billy Carlson’s, and Hall is a better athlete with a run tool that’s multiple full grades better. The Rays are the first team on the board with multiple picks before the second round kicks off—though their second and third picks don’t come until 37 and 42—with teams like the Red Sox, Orioles, Brewers and Royals picking twice between them.
With what should be the second-biggest bonus pool in the class, the Rays will have plenty of options in front of them. If teams picking before them get aggressive hunting for deals, Tampa will be right there waiting with the ability to offer an aggressive overslot deal if a player they really like begins to slide.
15. Red Sox — Dean Curley, SS, Tennessee
Of the college shortstop trio, Curley’s name tends to come up after both Arquette and Houston in recent conversations. The Tennessee shortstop is expected to move to either base or second base at the next level, and there’s enough concern about his defensive profile that he could slip further into the middle of the first round or a bit later. The talent gap between Curley and his middle infield teammate Gavin Kilen might be closer than their placement in today’s mock indicates.
16. Twins — Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Anderson’s most recent start against Auburn wasn’t much to write home about (4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), but a week before that, he was lights out against Oklahoma (9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 14 K). In total, he owns a 3.48 ERA over nine starts and 51.2 innings with a 38.6% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. He trails only Liam Doyle among SEC pitchers in both strikeouts (81) and strikeout-minus-walk rate (32.4%). Anderson’s new four-pitch mix, strong control, clean delivery and 2025 performance as LSU’s Friday night arm gives him a well-rounded starter profile.
17. Cubs — Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
We mentioned profiles that teams like, and Stevenson’s is one of the best as perhaps the safest all-around catching prospect in the class. He’s got a well-rounded toolset built on strong defensive ability behind the plate, a good batting eye and solid raw power. It might be nice to see Stevenson swing the bat a bit more because there are some pure contact questions he might need to answer, but he’s been happy to take the walks pitchers are giving him in a quarter of his plate appearances. Stevenson has hit .264/.457/.562 through 35 games with 10 home runs and is swinging the bat about a third of the time.
18. Diamondbacks — Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS, Hoschton, Ga.
Pierce is drawing huge scout crowds this spring. The Georgia shortstop flashed the leather at a high level last summer, and since then, he has added more strength and given scouts much more confidence in his offensive upside. He’s earning five-tool feedback and has enough buzz that it would be surprising to see him slip out of the first round. Pierce has a chance for plus defense at shortstop with a plus run tool to go along with it. After getting shut out in the last two drafts, the state of Georgia should get a top 30 high school prospect this year in Pierce.
19. Orioles — Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS
Neyens has impressed scouts with his work defensively and is seemingly off to a strong start with the bat, as well. He could easily go 10 spots higher than this, but for whatever reason, he’s had less chatter than some of his high school hitting peers. His raw power and batting eye are among the best in the high school class.
20. Brewers — Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln-Way East HS, Frankfort, Ill.
It feels unlikely for the hardest-throwing high school lefthander we’ve ever seen to not be a first-round pick. That’s what Bauer is, and he also has the ability to rip off 3,000 rpm breaking balls. His track record as a strike-thrower isn’t strong, and concerns about his starter profile moving forward could make him more of a fit in the back of the first round. A team with multiple picks and an ability to balance out the volatility he provides might be the best fit. The Brewers qualify for that this year and have also historically coveted high-spin arms.
21. Astros — Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Those lowest on Bodine view his lack of impact as a reason to take him after the first round. However, there’s a stark dropoff after the first three college catchers in the class, and Bodine might be the best pure receiver of the group. He’s also a switch-hitter who makes as much contact as any college hitter in the class. That should be enough for him to stick in the first round.
22. Braves — Joseph Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS
Parker should battle it out with Daniel Pierce and Steele Hall to be the first Southeastern high school shortstop off the board. Like Pierce and Hall, Parker has gotten excellent feedback this spring and has had huge scout crowds seemingly at every game. The personnel at his games makes it seem unlikely he slips out of the first round. Teams have plenty of fear about high school hitters from Mississippi and often point to Austin Riley as being the lone successful standout from that demographic. Perhaps the Braves can strike twice and add some much-needed offense to a pitching-heavy system.
23. Royals — Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
Like LaViolette, Cannarella started the season slow and slipped down draft boards. Also like LaViolette, Cannarella has quietly been performing well in recent weeks. He’s pushed his line to .320/.488/.440 with a 14.9% strikeout rate and a career-high 22.6% walk rate. Cannarella is also one of the safest bets in the class to stick at a premium, up-the-middle defensive position and be an impact value there thanks to his speed, athleticism and defensive instincts in center field.
24. Tigers — Slater de Brun, OF, Summit HS, Bend, Ore.
Detroit has emphasized high school players in each of their last two drafts. De Brun is one of the best preps available and offers an exciting blend of speed, center field defense and pure hitting ability. He doesn’t have the same physicality the Tigers secured with recent prep bats like Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle and Bryce Rainer, but he might be the most well-rounded player on the board.
25. Padres — Gavin Fien, 3B/OF, Great Oak HS, Temecula, Calif.
Fien is playing shortstop for his Great Oak high team this spring and has a case as one of the best pure hitters in the class after hitting everywhere he played last summer. Even if most scouts don’t expect him to stick at shortstop, Fien has the sort of hit/power combination that will allow him to profile nearly anywhere on the diamond. He’s getting plenty of first-round buzz and could easily fit higher than this spot.
26. Phillies — Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Aloy is en route to the best single season of his career this spring with Arkansas. Through 37 games, he’s slashing .361/.453/.690 with 12 home runs and 13 doubles. If a team views him as a shortstop at the next level, he could fit higher than this, but concerns that he fits best at second and some whiff tendencies might push him into the back of the second round.
27. Guardians — Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee
Kilen has the pure hitting track record that Cleveland has always prized and coveted. If he’s available here, he could make plenty of sense for the organization. He missed some time with a hamstring injury but was back on the field last weekend against Ole Miss. In 25 games, he owns a .425/.536/.931 line with a career-best 11 home runs and just a 5.4% strikeout rate. As mentioned previously, Kilen’s overall profile could easily fit in the middle of the first round.
28. Royals — Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS, Wendell, N.C.
McKenzie has impressed throughout the spring with a fastball in the low 90s, a plus curveball with huge spin rates and big depth and an improved changeup with solid command. Some North Carolina scouts liken him to 2019 first-rounder Blake Walston, who the D-backs took with the 26th overall pick.
29. D-backs — Josh Hammond, SS/RHP, Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C.
Hammond is the second up-arrow North Carolina prepster this spring and had plenty of eyes on him throughout the week as his Wesleyan Christian Academy team participated in the NHSI. A righty turned shortstop, Hammond is tremendously physical and flashes big-time raw power in batting practice and in games, and he should have the defensive chops to play either third base or second if/when he has to move from shortstop.
30. Orioles — Brandon Compton, OF, Arizona State
Compton had a hot start to the season and was looking like a 10-20 pick thanks to his power upside, but he’s cooled off a bit of late. His lack of on-base ability and corner outfield profile could cause him to slide a bit, and perhaps Baltimore has the bonus pool space to get him if that starts to happen. The Orioles have also prioritized lefthanded power as much as any team.
31. Orioles — Ike Irish, C, Auburn
Irish has dealt with some injuries this spring and is also less likely to stick behind the plate as a catcher long term when compared to both Luke Stevenson and Caden Bodine. There are some shades here of Malcolm Moore, who went 30th to the Rangers a year ago. Irish has a similar hit/power lefty combination but is a better athlete compared to Moore.
32. Brewers — Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest
Conrad’s season-ending shoulder surgery put an end to what was looking like an excellent 2025 season and makes him difficult to slot. If healthy, Conrad’s combination of physicality, tools and collegiate track record should have made him a top 20 pick with a chance to force his way into the top 10. The uncertainty about his health could cause him to slide, though teams seem starved for college hitters with both impact and contact skills. Conrad has proven to have both.
33. Red Sox — Cameron Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS, Chatham, Ill.
Appenzeller has yet to ramp up on the mound after playing basketball into the playoffs for his Glenwood High team in Illinois. His status here is mostly on talent and from what he showed last summer as one of the better arms in the class. He’s shown a three-pitch mix with a plus breaking ball and has great combination of projection, athleticism and control. Teams should have a better understanding of where he’s at in the next few weeks.
34. Tigers — Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
Riley Quick? More like really quick. Between a fastball routinely in the upper 90s (and into the triple digits) and a plus slider, Quick’s pure stuff is among the best in the class. He has performed well through eight starts with a 3.13 ERA but has only thrown five complete innings in two of those games with a 23.5% strikeout rate that’s not quite as gaudy as his pitch grades.
35. Mariners — Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona
The college outfield class is being decimated by injuries in recent weeks between Conrad, Texas outfielder Max Belyeu and Summerhill, whose fractured right wrist is expected to keep him out for another few weeks. Summerhill has great plate skills and hit .409/.500/.656 through his first 23 games. He has first-round hitting ability, but his health is now a question mark in addition to his power upside and corner outfield profile.
36. Twins — Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
Forbes was on the board about 10 spots higher than this before he threw his worst game of the season last weekend in front of a massive crowd of scouts who were in town for USA Baseball’s NHSI. Forbes lasted just three innings against NC State and walked seven batters without getting a strikeout. He has the pure stuff to fit with the likes of Kyson Witherspoon, Liam Doyle and Kade Anderson, but he chose the wrong day to have his worst outing of the season.
37. Rays — Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
Root’s been a steady performer in his first stint with Arkansas. He owns a 3.62 ERA over nine starts and 49.2 innings with a 32.1% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate, though his strikeout rate against SEC competition is closer to 25%. He has good feel for a deep mix of quality secondaries and should be one of the next college lefties off the board once the Arnold/Doyle/Anderson trio is gone.
38. Mets — Ethan Petry, OF, South Carolina
If teams had more confidence in Petry’s athleticism and defensive profile, he’d be a first rounder with ease. He’s hit at a high level with both average and power for three years. In his first 37 games this spring, Petry owns a .351/.469/.664 line with 10 home runs and a 14.8% strikeout rate that’s significantly better than what he managed as a freshman and sophomore. Going somewhere in the Tommy White range (40th overall in 2024) makes sense given his profile, though Petry’s bat could stand out more in this 2025 draft class.
39. Yankees — Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
Lodise has been surging all season, and it wouldn’t be a shocker for him to join the top four college shortstops in the class inside the first round—if he’s not there already. An ACC shortstop who has been one of the most impressive offensive performers in the country, Lodise is hitting .432/.485/.797 through 37 games with 13 home runs, 11 doubles and a perfect 6-for-6 on the bases. He is an extremely aggressive hitter which could taper his upside, but he feels like a top-50 player currently.
40. Dodgers — Brady Ebel, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS
Ebel might not have the defensive profile to be a slam dunk first-rounder, but there are scouts who view him as the best pure hitter on a loaded Corona High squad. He has an advanced understanding of the strike zone, great size for his age—he turns 18 a few days after the draft—at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds and a strong track record of hitting. The Dodgers would know him off the field as well as any team given that his father, Dino, is the team’s third base coach.
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