In my last NBA awards prediction piece, I went over the close races for MVP, DPOY, and COY. Many of these categories can go either way in terms of who will win, and the margins are so small for what gives one player leverage over the other.
Today, I’m going to break down the races for ROTY (Rookie of the Year), MIP (Most Improved Player), and 6MOY (Sixth Man of the Year).
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Rookie of the Year (ROTY)
Winner: Stephon Castle
Runner Up: Zaccharie Risacher
Up until the last month or so, the Rookie of the Year race was up and down. Jared McCain of the 76ers had an impressive start in the first couple months of his rookie campaign, looking like the favorite for the award until being ruled out for the year with an injury. After that, Castle and Risacher began to form a two-way race of their own, with the occasional pressure from Grizzlies’ center Zach Edey.
Castle seemed to make a real name for himself at this year’s all-star weekend, after performing well in the Rising Stars tournament. After the break, he has averaged 19.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 5.3 APG in 22 games since February 26th.
When the Spurs made the move to trade for De’Aaron Fox from the Kings, they were insistent on keeping Castle as they believe he has a promising future in this league.
Risacher has received a lot of criticism for not fitting the skill set out of the gate that a number one overall pick typically has put on them. He has started to show some snippets of meeting that expectation, but the consistency hasn’t been there yet to give him the leverage over Castle for the ROTY award.
Most Improved Player (MIP)
Winner: Dyson Daniels
Runner Up: Cade Cunningham
After the Hawks chose to part ways with Dejounte Murray this past offseason, they acquired Daniels who turned out to be one of the best defenders at the guard position in the entire league.
Averaging 33.9 MPG, Daniels led the league with 3.0 SPG (tied for 8th all-time for SPG in a single season). Daniels has had a +8.4 PPG increase this season compared to last season, averaging 14.2 PPG with Atlanta.
Although Cunningham has had another great leap this season, it doesn’t compare to the exponential growth that we have seen from Daniels this season, which is why Daniels will take home the award.
Cunningham’s progress was recognized as he was voted an all-star this season (the first of his career), but the progress from last season to this season is marginal compared to the jump that Daniels has displayed this season.
Sixth Man of the Year (6MOY)
Winner: Payton Pritchard
Runner Up: Malik Beasley
Pritchard and Beasley are two of the premier three-point shooters in the NBA. Both play ~28 MPG and are in the top six for three-point makes this season. Although Pritchard averages 14.0 PPG compared to Beasley’s 16.2 PPG, Pritchard has proved to be the more all-around impactful guard, having an impact on all sides of the floor. Pritchard has 8.2 win shares compared to Beasley’s 4.5 (win shares- the estimated amount of wins a player contributed to their team).
Pritchard has also been a better facilitator this season, with 3.4 APG to Beasley’s 1.7 APG. Watching Pritchard, it’s evident that he has made a large impact on winning for the Celtics, especially in the role off the bench he has excelled in, as a player who is capable of starting for many other teams across the NBA. Pritchard has also been the best offensive rebounder for players under 6-4 this season, with 99 OREB.
Pritchard is tied for 14th in the league for plus-minus, with a +418 when on the court. Both players have been available for all or nearly every game this season, with Pritchard starting in just one game this season, while Beasley has started in 18 games (22.8% of games played).
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