Ashton Jeanty should probably thank Saquon Barkley. And Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon as well.
The 2024 NFL season was largely about the rebirth of the running back. Multiple veteran free agents signed with new teams and had huge impacts. Barkley helped his team all the way to a Super Bowl win. And Jeanty’s timing couldn’t be better.
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With The Year of the Running Back fresh in the minds of NFL teams, Jeanty enters the NFL Draft. He’s on a rare plane of running back prospects, perhaps the best since Barkley in the 2018 draft. He’s No. 2 overall on the final big board from Yahoo Sports’ Charles McDonald.
However, even though running backs had a surge last season it’s still behind many other positions in terms of how NFL teams value it. That means the No. 2 prospect in the NFL Draft has virtually no chance of going second overall. But is he worth the sixth overall pick to a rebuilding team?
Ashton Jeanty favored to go 6th overall
The NFL Draft odds on Jeanty at BetMGM mirror plenty of mock drafts. Jeanty is the favorite to go No. 6 overall, a pick the Las Vegas Raiders currently own, and there’s a pretty big gap to the second favorite on the list:
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Jeanty -145
Jalon Walker +700
Will Johnson +750
Mason Graham +1000
All other players are +1500 (15-to-1) or longer to be taken with the sixth pick.
NFL odds aren’t always predictive, but the Jeanty odds reflect what the market believes the Raiders will do (though BetMGM’s odds are for which pick Jeanty will be selected, and theoretically the Raiders could trade No. 6 to a team that takes Jeanty).
It’s an interesting situation. Even the most optimistic Raiders fan would probably admit the team is still in a rebuilding phase. They have a new coach in Pete Carroll, a new quarterback in Geno Smith, are turning over plenty of the defense after losing multiple starters in free agency and play in a division with three other playoff teams from last season. The Raiders were 4-13 last season and while they could be better with the quarterback upgrade, there’s a long way to go to be competitive in the AFC West.
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Does a running back, even one as dominant as Jeanty was, change that?
Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty runs a drill during the school’s NFL pro day. (AP Photo/Kyle Green)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Will the Raiders take Jeanty?
Jeanty was a force at Boise State, a worthy Heisman Trophy candidate who would have won in most years but had the misfortune of being against Travis Hunter’s historic two-way season. Jeanty rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns last season and Boise State made the College Football Playoff. It was one of the all-time great college running back seasons.
It wasn’t just the production for Jeanty. He is explosive with great balance, and has a special ability to break tackles. There’s a good reason he’s in the Barkley class of prospects.
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Presumably, when the Raiders go on the clock in the draft, Jeanty will be the best player available. And it’s hard to fault them for taking Jeanty based on that. But it’s also hard to see the Raiders as being a running back away from contention. The common thread between Barkley, Henry, Jacobs and Mixon is they all went to 2023 playoff teams and made them better. They didn’t go to a 4-13 team and elevate it to the postseason. That’s a lot to ask for any running back. Barkley was the second pick to the Giants, had more than 2,000 scrimmage yards as a rookie and won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the Giants still went just 5-11 that season.
But the Raiders have to start somewhere. They nailed the pick of tight end Brock Bowers last season. They upgraded at quarterback with Smith, though he’s in the middle class of NFL quarterbacks and is unlikely to ascend to the next tier. If the Raiders can get the next few drafts right, maybe Jeanty will still be at his peak — and still on his rookie deal — by the time the team can compete with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos in the division. That would be the dream anyway.
Carroll had his greatest NFL success with an offense led by Marshawn Lynch. Before that, his best teams at USC had Reggie Bush and LenDale White forming a dominant backfield. That could matter in the Raiders’ mindset when it comes to Jeanty. And there’s no doubt Jeanty would help a Raiders offense that was absolutely inept at running the ball last season. It’s just a question of how much he’ll help.
The Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill. A running back probably won’t get them to the playoffs this season. But Jeanty isn’t your normal running back prospect.
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