Most NFL handicapping analysts, ranging from recreational to professional, use some combination of advanced analytical data and eye tests to form their opinions or power ratings for each team. Seeing as we’re still months away from any glimpse of the latter, analytical data reigns king this time of year for structuring first impressions of NFL clubs for the 2025 NFL season.
New analytical data and formulas are popping up on a regular basis. Almost all of them are open to some level of subjective interpretation and most analysts work behind a backdrop of their built-in biases and preferences as to what information is worth consideration and what is superfluous or irrelevant.
Sportsbooks have offered live NFL future odds for weeks now, with odds available on everything from season win totals on every team to odds for the Super Bowl winner. DraftKings Sportsbook has released NFL point spreads for every regular-season game, and a new analytical viewpoint has emerged using this information.
SportsLine NFL expert R.J. White, who has two top-40 finishes in the famed Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest to his credit, recently developed a data set called season-long aggregate point spreads. What does this mean? In short, it’s a snapshot view of each team’s projections through the eyes of oddsmakers. The data involved reflects each team’s collective, or aggregate point spread for the season versus the combined spread of its opponents. Projected individual season win totals for all teams were also generated using this data.
In short, the aggregate 2025 NFL point spreads (see chart below) are tantamount to a projected season-long spread differential between all 32 teams.
What can we learn from it? The data charted below seems to give observers a snapshot insight into the oddsmakers’ perspectives of which NFL teams will boom or bust, along with those projected to have little significant trajectory change.
For example, the Buffalo Bills, who are projected to be favored in every 2025 regular-season game, predictably lead the way with an aggregate point spread of -103. Conversely, the downtrodden Browns are projected to have an aggregate point spread differential of +100. The informational value appears to lie with the projected data for numerous clubs that exist in the long bookend between the two extremes.
A couple of significant outliers stand out at first blush. The New England Patriots, fresh off a four-win season, are pretty clearly the early front-runner for a dramatic turnaround in the eyes of oddsmakers. In the offseason, they added a new coach in popular on-field alum Mike Vrabel and were generally given high grades for their draft choices and free-agent acquisitions. As such, their aggregate point spread (-1) suggest they are essentially a pick’em collectively against their 17 opponents, and their projected win total of 8.59 is more than double what they managed last season.
On the flipside, the season-long aggregate data suggests a clear fall from grace for the Vikings, who were among last season’s unexpected breakout clubs with 14 wins. The Vikings are expected to start JJ McCarthy at quarterback after the Michigan product spent his rookie season sidelined by an injury. Along with uncertainty surrounding the first-round pick’s performance ceiling, the club was also given generally lukewarm grades for its draft performance and free-agent signings. Accordingly, its season-long spread of +5 and projected win total of 8.31 suggest a considerable drop-off.
Check out the season-long aggregate point spreads below for all 32 NFL teams to see whether the information provides a viable tool for your analyzing purposes.
2025 NFL season aggregate point spreads (DraftKings/SportsLine)
Note: R.J. White originally shared he aggregate point-spread information in the SportsLine Discord server, a free resource available to SportsLine members.
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