As the 2025 NFL season looms closer, with June just around the corner, sportsbooks have released their NFL win total projections for all 32 teams, offering fans and bettors an early glimpse into expectations for the upcoming campaign. Among the top contenders, the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs stand out with some of the highest over/under win totals, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles at 11.5 wins according to ESPN Bet. Here’s a deep dive into the projected win totals for these powerhouse teams, along with other notable franchises, based on the latest odds, schedule analyses, and offseason developments.
Buffalo Bills: 11.5 Wins (Over -140, Under +110)
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a stellar 13-4 season in 2024, and expectations remain sky-high for 2025. With reigning MVP Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills are projected to have the NFL’s best record, with sportsbooks juicing the over at -140. Buffalo’s schedule is the fifth-easiest in the league, based on opponents’ 2024 winning percentages, providing a favorable path to another double-digit win season. Key home games against the Ravens (Week 1), Chiefs (Week 9), and Eagles (Week 17) will test their mettle, but analysts like Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton predict another 13-4 finish, citing continuity in coaching and a bolstered secondary with additions like first-round pick Maxwell Hairston.
The Bills have won 11 or more games in each of the last five seasons under head coach Sean McDermott, who holds an impeccable 8-0 record after bye weeks. Their dominance in the AFC East, where they’re projected to secure a sixth straight division crown, is supported by weaker divisional projections: Miami Dolphins (8.5 wins), New England Patriots (7.5 wins), and New York Jets (5.5 wins). However, their postseason struggles against Kansas City—having lost to the Chiefs in four of the last five playoffs—loom large, with a pivotal regular-season matchup in Orchard Park potentially foreshadowing another playoff clash.
Prediction: The Bills are favored in all 17 games, a rare feat, and their home-field advantage (42-21 with Allen at Highmark Stadium) makes the over 11.5 wins a strong bet. Expect 12-13 wins as they cruise through a manageable NFC South crossover and handle most divisional foes.
Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins (Over +100, Under -130)
The Ravens, led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, are another team pegged at 11.5 wins, reflecting their consistent excellence. After a 12-5 campaign in 2024, Baltimore faces a tougher road with the ninth-hardest schedule, including a brutal opening stretch: at Buffalo (Week 1), vs. Detroit (Week 3), and at Kansas City (Week 4). Despite this, Cynthia Frelund’s model projects the Ravens to lead the AFC with a slight edge (0.2 wins) over Buffalo, driven by their league-best yards-per-play differential (+1.6) and a potent rushing attack featuring Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Baltimore’s schedule includes four prime-time games and a Thanksgiving showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals, who they’ve beaten in four straight high-scoring affairs. The Ravens’ ability to compete for the AFC North title—potentially a historic third straight crown—will hinge on their midseason road warrior stretch (Weeks 10-12: Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland) and late-season battles against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Their playoff collapse against Buffalo last season (a snowy divisional-round loss) adds fuel to their Week 1 rematch, where linebacker Roquan Smith vows “revenge.”
Prediction: The Ravens’ tough early schedule could lead to a 2-2 start, but their talent and coaching should push them to 11-12 wins, making the over a close but achievable call.
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins (Over +110, Under -140)
The Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off a 15-2 regular season but a crushing 40-22 Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia, are projected at 11.5 wins, with the under slightly favored. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid remain the NFL’s gold standard, but an overhauled offensive line (new tackles Jaylon Moore and Josh Simmons, plus a competition to replace Joe Thuney) and a tougher schedule raise questions. Kansas City faces the NFC East and AFC South, with key tests against Philadelphia (Week 2), Baltimore (Week 4), and Buffalo (Week 9).
The Chiefs’ 2024 success relied on a record 17 straight one-score wins, a streak that may not be sustainable. Analysts note their Super Bowl performance exposed weaknesses, particularly along the offensive line, and their focus may shift from chasing the No. 1 seed to playoff readiness. Still, Kansas City is favored in 16 of 17 games and boasts a revamped receiving corps (Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson) and a fortified defensive front.
Prediction: The Chiefs may not replicate their 15-2 mark, but 10-11 wins are likely as they navigate a challenging schedule. The under 11.5 is tempting given their postseason focus and potential regression.
Other Notable Teams
- Philadelphia Eagles (11.5 Wins, Over +110, Under -140): The reigning Super Bowl champs face the fourth-toughest schedule (.561 opponent winning percentage), with five prime-time games and a rematch against Kansas City in Week 2. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and a stout offensive line keep them among the elite, with 11-12 wins expected.
- Cincinnati Bengals (10.5 Wins, Over +100, Under -130): Joe Burrow’s elite play and an improved defense could push Cincinnati to 11 wins, challenging Baltimore for the AFC North. A key Thanksgiving game against the Ravens will be pivotal.
- Detroit Lions (10.5 Wins, Over -130, Under +100): Despite the toughest schedule in Frelund’s model, the Lions’ explosive offense and battle-tested roster should yield 10-11 wins, though repeating 15-2 is unlikely.
- Los Angeles Chargers (10.5 Wins, Over +105, Under -135): Jim Harbaugh’s physical, run-heavy approach and additions like Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris should lift the Chargers to 10-11 wins, making them a dark horse in the AFC.
Teams at the Bottom
On the opposite end, the Cleveland Browns (4.5 wins), New York Giants (5.5 wins), New York Jets (5.5 wins), and Tennessee Titans (5.5 wins) are projected among the league’s worst. The Browns face a brutal early schedule and quarterback uncertainty, while the Giants and Jets struggle in tough divisions..
2025 NFL Win Totals: Final Thoughts
As June approaches, the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs remain the AFC’s cream of the crop, with win totals reflecting their star power and consistency. Buffalo’s favorable schedule and home-field edge make them the safest bet to hit 12+ wins, while Baltimore’s talent and Kansas City’s pedigree keep them in the 10-12 win range. The Eagles lead the NFC, but teams like the Lions, Vikings, and Bucs could shake up the playoff picture. With the NFL Draft in the rearview and free agency winding down, these projections set the stage for a thrilling 2025 season. Stay tuned for schedule leaks and further odds movement as the season nears
Note: All win total odds and projections are based on ESPN Bet and other sportsbook data as of late May 2025. Check for updated lines as the season approaches.
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