The chances of having a perfect men’s NCAA tournament bracket are so small that we’re talking a 1 in 120.2 billion chance. That’s “b” for a billion. Well, unless you’re flipping a coin for all 63 games. Then it’s 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
But winning bragging rights in your Men’s Bracket Challenge Game group against friends? Those odds are more in your favor. So, what does it take for that to happen? Looking at recent winners in our Men’s Bracket Challenge Game, we have some answers for you. We went through the nine MBCG game winners since 2015 to see the picks they made and how they moved to the top of the leaderboard ahead of millions of fans, friends, experts and many others.
2024 WINNER: Click or tap here for the winning 2024 MBCG bracket, named “Mr.Rene2299194”
Here are five tips we learned from looking at the nine MBCG winners.
Here’s the winning 2023 bracket for the Men’s Bracket Challenge Game, named “Ncaa20239628267”
And here’s a look at “Mine 1,” the winning 2022 bracket:
1. It’s important to win around 50 games
When filling out your MBCG bracket, you have to pick winners in 63 games. The nine MBCG victors picked the correct winner in 54, 50, 54, 51, 53, 47, 53, 49 and 51 games in their respective winning years. That’s an average of 51.3 correct picks for the entire tournament. In other words, MBCG winners get more than 11 games wrong each year, on average.
Correct picks are worth more the later you go, so a big percentage of the incorrect games happened early for our champs, including “mjbrewer” in 2015, “Che 3” in 2016, “KELSEY 2017” in 2017, “Tenny schmidt” in 2018, “bradmmsmith744” in 2019 and “Lawdog V2” in 2021.
The nine winners “lost” a combined 105 games in their brackets. Of those, 58 (55.2 percent) came in the first round — not surprising since 32 of the 63 games (50.8 percent) you have to pick are in that first round.
About those remaining losses? Thirty-one of those showed up in the second round. In other words, you’re going to need to be close to perfect from the Sweet 16 on to win, particularly in the later rounds.
2. It’s all about the National Championship Game
It’s obvious but clear.
If you rightly predict the title game teams, chances are you’re looking down on almost everyone else on the leaderboard. As others come up empty on those big points late, the nine winners picked up clutch points for predicting finals like Virginia-Texas Tech in 2019, North Carolina-Gonzaga in 2017, Baylor-Gonzaga in 2021, Kansas-North Carolina in 2022 and UConn-Purdue in 2024.
That all sounds simple enough. But getting there is the challenge.
3 and 4. Watch your Elite Eight and then your Final Four picks
Don’t worry if you miss one of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 games (or two, or three…). If your Final Four and Elite Eight picks remain in the bracket, you’re looking good.
Eight of the last nine BCG champs missed between zero and two Elite Eight teams — with just one going a perfect 8/8: 2019 winner “mjbrewer.”
Moving onto the Final Four, the last nine BCG winners correctly picked 34 of the 36 Final Four teams: 2018 Cinderella Loyola Chicago and 2023 Miami (Fla.) the only misses. That’s where the separation happens. It’s one thing to have all eight Elite Eight teams. It’s another to correctly pick the winners of those Elite Eight games.
5. Don’t stress about the early rounds and picking those first-round upsets — for the most part
You’re not going to get every game right (probably!). Four of the nine BCG winners even got more than seven games wrong in the first round.
You don’t have to pick every big upset, either. In fact, six of the nine BCG winners have had at least one “wrong” double-digit upset pick — incorrectly picking a double-digit team to advance to the second round.
Want more evidence of avoiding early-round worry? “Che 3” won the 2018 title despite picking Virginia to advance to the Elite Eight. What helped “Che 3” out is many picked the Cavaliers to go even further than that.
It’s all about timing. Later games are worth more points, so dropping a game or two or seven (or more!) in the first round won’t necessarily eliminate you. Hopefully, all your losses come from teams that bow out before reaching the Sweet 16.
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