Alex RodriguezGary Barber
So, when was the last time that a historically great hitter entered free agency at the absolute height of his power?
You could argue Bryce Harper or Manny Machado after 2018, but they were iffy on the “historically great” front and not necessarily at the height of their powers. The same equation likewise wasn’t balanced for Jason Heyward after 2015 and Adrian Beltré after 2004.
Instead, you have to go back to Alex Rodriguez after the 2000 season.
He was already a batting champion and a member of the 40-40 club when he reached free agency as a mere 25-year-old. The Texas Rangers rewarded him accordingly, doubling the biggest contract ever for a pro athlete in signing A-Rod to a 10-year, $252 million deal.
Adjusted for inflation, a modern version of that deal would net Soto about a $450 million guarantee. And this is an era where longer deals than 10 years are possible, for which Harper’s 13-year contract with the Philadelphia Phillies is a relevant model.
A 13-year contract worth $45 million per year gets Soto to $585 million. If he and his agent, Scott Boras, push to match Shohei Ohtani’s present-day average of roughly $46 million, then a 13-year deal comes to $598 million.
That’s as close to $600 million as it gets, and getting to this point merely required putting precedent-related puzzle pieces together. When the Yankees and other teams actually start bidding on Soto, they’ll be bidding against the competition and not against history.
As such, it’s more than likely that Soto’s eventual contract would make even the Rodriguez of 24 years ago blush.
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