Detroit’s Tarik SkubalJason Miller/Getty Images
Kansas City out-spent the rest of the division last offseason, but not by a 3x multiplier. In the Royals’ case, they invested $110.475M into Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and a half-dozen other free agents, while Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Minnesota checked enough couch cushions and winter coat pockets to scrounge together $91.5M in contracts for free agents.
(If you include signing Bobby Witt Jr. to a $288.8M extension, though, the Royals laughably outspent the rest of the division en route to their surprising postseason appearance.)
Well, this winter, it’ll be the Tigers leaving the other four AL Central teams in the dust as far as free-agent spending goes.
Looking to build on what was an incredible final two months of the season and knowing it needs at least one more quality pitcher to pair with Tarik Skubal, Detroit figures to make a huge offer to one of the ace-level pitchers on the market.
Whether that’s something close to $200M for Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Gerrit Cole or a more modest $100M offer to bring Jack Flaherty back to where he started the 2024 campaign remains to be seen. But they should be pretty aggressive in pursuit of what could be the best 1-2 SP punch in baseball.
Detroit will presumably also be on the prowl for a slugger after only having one player (Riley Greene) hit 20 home runs this season.
Meanwhile, do we think the White Sox, Guardians and Twins will even spend $20M combined this winter?
There’s absolutely no reason for Chicago to spend anything right now. Cleveland spent $4.75M on free agents last winter and has never been an offseason spender. Minnesota barely eclipsed Cleveland at $6.2M and might be even more reluctant than usual amid more Regional Sports Network uncertainty and talks of selling the team.
The wild card is Kansas City, and to some extent whether Michael Wacha exercises his $16M player option.
If he does, they might just more or less let it ride with what is already looking like a $105M-$110M Opening Day payroll, probably adding a relatively inexpensive reliever or two and not much else. But if they decide to invest in upgrading what was a woeful outfield situation by taking a sizable flyer on Tyler O’Neill, that could sink this prediction in a hurry.
The other potential fly in the ointment here is Detroit simply re-investing in what it already has. Skubal only has two years remaining before hitting free agency, while Greene has four years left. Locking up that duo long-term while making more modest moves in free agency could be the play for the Tigers.
We think they spend big on a couple of new toys, though.
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