College Baseball

Revisiting Every No. 1 Overall Pick For 2025 MLB Draft Lottery Teams


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Tuesday’s MLB draft lottery will determine which team gets the first overall pick, and this year 16 different teams have at least a chance to find themselves picking at the top of the board. For six teams, it would be the first time they’ve ever held the first overall pick.

In preparation for that, let’s examine each of the 16 teams with draft lottery odds to see their 1-1 pick history and how they’ve fared picking at the very top of the draft.

Check here for more details on this year’s draft lottery.

Thanks to the Baseball-Reference draft database for research assistance and to Allan Simpson’s Ultimate Draft Book to help contextualize historic drafts.

D-backs (.27%)

Arizona hit on both its first overall picks, though eventually traded both those players away to the Braves—Swanson before he reached the major leagues and Upton after six seasons that included two all-star appearances and 13.7 bWAR. Swanson ranked as the No. 2 player in a shortstop-heavy 2015 draft. Upton was the top overall player in the 2005 draft. 

While Upton never reached his superstar billing, he had a 16-year career with four all-star appearances, three silver slugger awards, hit 325 home runs and finished top-five in MVP voting in 2011. His 32.3 career bWAR is sixth-best from the 2005 class, behind Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman and Alex Gordon.

Swanson, likewise has come short of superstar status, but has been a productive big leaguer through his first nine seasons while managing 4+ bWAR in each of his last three seasons in his age 28-30 years. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner, two-time all-star and has received down-ballot MVP votes in three separate seasons. 

Mariners (.54%)

Seattle nailed their most recent 1-1 picks. The back-to-back combination of Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. will be difficult to be topped by any organization. A-Rod is perhaps the best draft prospect of all time. Griffey Jr. has a top-five case in that designation as well. 

Rodriguez is the most productive 1-1 pick of all time with 117.6 bWAR. Among all drafted players, he trails only Barry Bonds (Pirates, 1985, 6th overall) with 162.8 bWAR and Roger Clemens (Red Sox, 1983, 19th overall) with 139.2 bWAR.

Griffey Jr. is the third-most productive 1-1 pick of all time, trailing only A-Rod and Chipper Jones (Braves, 1990, 85.3 bWAR) with 83.8 bWAR. 

Mike Moore was a solid pick in 1981 and trails only Kevin McReynolds (Padres, sixth overall) as the most productive first-rounder of that class. He had a 14-year career, earned Cy Young votes in 1985 and 1989 and made one all-star game with the Athletics in 1989.

Al Chambers is the lone miss here. He played in just 57 games across three seasons and was a career .208/.326/.292 hitter. Chambers headlined a relatively weak 1979 first round though the class included late-round standouts like Orel Hershiser (Dodgers, 17th round), Brett Butler (Braves, 23rd round) and Don Mattingly (Yankees, 19th round).

Cubs (.68%)

Dunston was viewed as one of the top three talents in the 1982 draft in addition to Augie Schmidt and Jimmy Jones. He proved to be the best of that trio though his career stands out more for longevity than impact. He played 18 years, made two all-star games and produced 11.6 bWAR, though never produced a single season better than his 1989 campaign where he was a 2.3-win player. His production was good for fourth-best in the 1982 draft, though in hindsight righthander Dwight Gooden (Mets, fifth overall) was the player to take.

Cardinals (.82%)

  • Have never had a No. 1 overall pick

The Cardinals have never had the first or second overall pick in the draft and in 2024 had their first pick inside the top 10 this century. The team’s highest pick was third overall in the 1996 draft when they signed righthander Braden Looper for $1.65 million. The Cardinals have drafted fourth overall once, in 1991 when they signed third baseman Dmitri Young, and the fifth overall once, in 1998 when they selected outfielder JD Drew. 

Drew (along with agent Scott Boras) was a pivotal figure in the draft when he didn’t sign with the Phillies as the second overall pick in 1997. He instead signed with the independent Northern League in an attempt to be declared a free agent. This caused MLB to rename the draft the “First-Year Player Draft” to close the would-be loophole. Drew eventually signed for a then-record $3 million the following year with the Cardinals and was the first player drafted out of an independent league.

Twins (1.09%)

  • 2017 — Royce Lewis, SS, JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.
  • 2001 — Joe Mauer, C, Cretin HS, St. Paul, Minn.
  • 1983 — Tim Belcher, RHP, Mount Vernon Nazarene (did not sign)

The Twins have had the first overall pick three times, and twice this century. It’s a mixed bag with upside moving forward. Their most recent first pick, Royce Lewis, has been somewhere between good and great when on the field in the last three seasons but has been hampered by injuries. He’ll enter his age-26 season in 2025. 

Minnesota was criticized in 2001 for passing on righthander Mark Prior, the top-ranked player in the class, because of signability concerns. The Twins instead maintained conviction in selecting Joe Mauer at the time and stands vindicated more than two decades later. Mauer is one of the best players in Minnesota franchise history. His 55.2 bWAR tops both Prior (16.6), No. 2 ranked Mark Teixeira (50.6), as well as the entirety of the 2001 first round. 

The Twins have failed to sign their first-round picks more than any other organization, with six first-rounders failing to agree to deals. Belcher in the 1983 draft was one of those six.

Red Sox (1.22%)

  • Have never had a No. 1 overall pick

The Red Sox have never had the first or second pick in the draft. Their highest selection was third overall in the 1967 draft when they selected righthander Mike Garman who pitched as a reliever for nine seasons. They’ve had the No. 4 overall pick twice: once in 1966 when they selected lefthander Ken Brett and then in 2021 when they selected shortstop Marcelo Mayer. Their fourth top-five overall pick was in the first draft in 1965 when the Red Sox picked fifth and selected outfielder Billy Conigliaro. 

Rays (1.50%)

The Rays have a solid track record with their four No. 1 overall picks. Josh Hamilton is one of the most exciting players to ever come out of North Carolina. Despite a turbulent path to the majors he was one of the game’s most disruptive hitters at his peak. He finished his nine-year career with an MVP award, five all-star appearances, a batting title and three silver sluggers, though none of his major league time came with the Rays.

Delmon Young didn’t have that sort of peak. In hindsight at least a dozen other names might have been better selections, but he did have a 10-year major league career. 

David Price was an easy selection for the Rays and then first-time scouting director RJ Harrison in 2007. Price lived up to his potential with a 14-year career that included a CY Young Award, five all-star appearances and a pair of seasons where he led the league in ERA. He finished his career with 40.2 bWAR, third in the 2007 first round behind Josh Donaldson (46.7) and Jason Heyward (41.8).

In 2008 the Rays became the first team to pick No. 1 in back-to-back drafts. They didn’t hit on Tim Beckham in the same way they hit on Price in 2007. Beckham ranked No. 3 in the class at the time and had a seven-year career that peaked with a 22-homer 2017 season. 

Giants (1.90%)

  • Never had a No. 1 overall pick

The Giants have had the second overall pick twice, but they’ve never picked 1-1. They had the second overall pick in 1985, which is a class scouts speculated was the best ever at the time. Nearly four decades later seems to be the case in hindsight as well. In that draft the team took Mississippi State first baseman Will Clark who would ordinarily look like a great pick despite the fact that the Giants passed on outfielders Barry Bonds (Pirates, sixth) and Rafael Palmeiro (Cubs, 22nd) and lefthander Randy Johnson (Expos, 36th).

San Francisco also picked second in 2018 when it selected Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart, who ranked as the No. 5 player in the class.

Rangers (2.45%)

The Rangers have a pair of No. 1 overall picks, though both happened in the first 10 years of the draft when the system looked entirely different than it does today. California high school outfielder Jeff Burroughs was the consensus top hitting talent in 1969. He won an MVP award in his second full major league season as a 23-year-old, though he never again reached that sort of peak in a 16-year career that included a pair of all-star appearances and 17.7 bWAR. 

Clyde was a heralded Texan sensation out of high school who became the first prep pitcher to be selected with the first overall pick. He injected plenty of buzz into a new Dallas-based Rangers franchise at the time and impressed a sellout crowd in his major league debut in the same year he was drafted as an 18-year-old. He made 18 starts that season, but ultimately fell short of his massive expectations. Clyde pitched in five seasons with the Rangers and Indians.

Reds (3.67%)

  • Never had a No. 1 overall pick

The Reds have never picked first overall, but they have had the second pick in the draft on four different occasions—three of which have come since 2016. In the 1983 draft the Reds picked high school shortstop Kurt Stilwell, in 2016 the team took Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel, in 2017 the Reds selected high school righthander Hunter Greene and most recently in 2024 the team took Wake Forest righthander Chase Burns—who they handed a record bonus of $9.25 million.

Pirates (5.31%)

No team with a shot at earning the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft lottery has picked first more than the Pirates. It seemed hard for the Pirates to miss in a 2023 draft class that was loaded overall and had three names up top that each had a case for 1-1 in Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford. Skenes’ historic 2024 rookie season makes the pick look great just over a year later.

The 2021 draft was a muddled class at the top. The Pirates opted to sign No. 5-ranked catcher Henry Davis to an under-slot deal and spread their bonus pool money around to later picks. He’s a big leaguer but has yet to find his footing in parts of two seasons.

The Pirates signed Gerrit Cole to an $8 million deal that was a draft record for eight years until Adley Rutschman topped it in 2019. While Cole leveled up as a pitcher immediately after leaving Pittsburgh, even in hindsight the only player that might have served them better in the 2011 first round was eighth overall pick Francisco Lindor.

The 2002 draft was the Moneyball draft where the A’s severely underperformed despite having seven picks in the first 39 picks. The Pirates, meanwhile, also swung-and-missed at No. 1 by taking righthander Bryan Bullington out of Ball State. He pitched sparingly in parts of five seasons and was never more than a below-average big leaguer. 

Righthander Kris Benson in 1996 faired better. He was a more productive big leaguer than the seven players taken after him. He finished fourth in the 1999 rookie of the year voting and made 200 starts over a nine-year career, with 13.1 bWAR in total.

The Pirates’ first No. 1 pick was Arkansas shortstop Jeff King, who had a fine 11-year career and managed 16.9 bWAR, but the Pirates passed on players like Greg Swindell, Matt Williams, Kevin Brown and Gary Sheffield to take him. The 1986 draft is now most notable for being the draft the Royals signed Bo Jackson in the fourth round.

Blue Jays (7.48%)

  • Never had a No. 1 overall pick

The Blue Jays haven’t picked first, but they have picked second on three different occasions in the late 1970s and early 1980s. High school first baseman Lloyd Moseby in 1978 is the one success story of this trio of picks. Both high school shortstop Garry Harris (1980) and New Orleans shortstop Augie Schmidt (1982) never made the majors. Moseby had a 12-year career, made one all-star team and earned one silver slugger award and produced 27.6 bWAR.

Nationals (10.20%)

Perhaps no team has been more fortunate with the timing of their No. 1 overall picks than the Nationals. They had back-to-back first overall picks in 2009 and 2010 when there happened to be back-to-back generational draft prospects waiting to be picked. 

Harper was a teenage prodigy who enrolled in junior college a year early and was the clearcut choice with the first pick as one of the most talented, hyped and criticized amateur prospects ever. He’s now in the midst of a Hall of Fame career, has two MVP awards, eight all-star appearances, a rookie of the year award and has amassed 51.1 bWAR in 13 years through his age-31 season. 

Strasburg’s fame came as a college pitcher with San Diego State, but he has a case as the best amateur pitching prospect of all time. In Baseball America’s 2009 report we wrote that he “projects as a true No. 1 starter and a Cy Young Award winner, and anything less will be a disappointment.” While injuries cut into Strasburg’s career, he did pitch at an ace-caliber level when healthy and finished top-five in Cy Young voting in multiple years. He helped lead the Nationals to a 2019 World Series when he posted a 1.98 ERA over 36.1 innings and five starts in the postseason and won the World Series MVP Award.

Angels (17.96%)

The 1975 draft is arguably the weakest draft of all time. Unfortunately Angels No. 1 overall pick Danny Goodwin wasn’t an outlier success story from that crop. He hit well in 1978 and 1979 but played just seven major league seasons and amassed -1.7 bWAR. The 24 players selected in the 1975 first round compiled just 10.6 bWAR. Indians catcher and No. 7 overall pick Rick Cerone (8.1 bWAR) stands as the best of the field.

The 1995 draft treated the industry, and the Angels, a bit better. Outfielder Darin Erstad gave the Angels above-average production for a 1-1 pick. He played 14 years in the majors and totaled 32.3 bWAR with two all-star appearances, three Gold Glove awards, one Silver Slugger award and a World Series championship in 2002.

Marlins (22.45%)

Scouts called the 2000 draft an unpredictable group of players at the time, but the Marlins nailed their one and only No. 1 overall pick with high school first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is clearly the best player in the first 14 picks of that draft. He was a well above-average major league hitter who made five all-star teams and earned four Gold Glove awards and three Silver Slugger awards. He finished his 15-year career as a .287/.358/.485 hitter with a 129 OPS+, 317 home runs and 43.5 bWAR. That WAR total is good for third-best in the 2000 draft behind Chase Utley (Phillies, 15th, 64.5) and Adam Wainwright (Braves, 29th, 45.2).

Rockies (22.45%)

  • Never had a No. 1 overall pick

The Rockies have picked inside the first 10 selections on 16 different occasions. They’ve never had the first overall pick and they’ve picked second just once: in 2006 when the team took Stanford righthander Greg Reynolds. Reynolds pitched in parts of three seasons but struggled to a 7.01 ERA with the Rockies and Reds.

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