Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the biggest looming question hanging over the Blue Jays as they prepare for what might be their final year of control over the All-Star first baseman. GM Ross Atkins said at season’s end that the Jays would be looking to start extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed these negotiations were taking place in a recent interview with Abriendo Sports (hat tip to Z101’s Hector Gomez and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).
Guerrero reiterated that he has interest in staying in Toronto, and is “ready to go” in signing an extension if the Jays meet his asking price. However, “what they offered me is not even close to what I’m looking for,” Guerrero said, noting that Toronto’s most recent offer was worth around $340MM. Notably, this offer came after Juan Soto signed his 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, and completely reset the market for superstar players.
Only limited time may be available to close the gap that exists between the two sides, as Guerrero said that he has let the front office know that he will cease negotiations after the first full day of the Jays’ Spring Training camp. It is a bit of an unusual self-imposed deadline date, as most players set Opening Day as their unofficial endpoint for reaching an extension. Obviously an extension can happen at any point before a player enters free agency, yet players generally prefer to keep focused only on baseball once the season begins, and thus contract talks are usually limited to the offseason.
It isn’t uncommon for some deals, of course, to be announced a few days or weeks into April, if talks are on the proverbial five-yard line by Opening Day and just a few final details needed to be confirmed. Likewise, Guerrero probably isn’t going to end all talks in late February if he and the Jays have worked out most aspects of a very lucrative (and therefore rather complex) extension. That said, reducing the remaining negotiation window to roughly two months is a pretty public way of increasing the pressure on Toronto’s front office.
This is purely speculation on my part, but the earlier “deadline” could also be Guerrero’s way of leaving the door open for a trade. If an extension can’t be worked out before Spring Training properly begins and the Blue Jays feel Guerrero won’t re-sign next winter, the Jays could pivot and try to trade Guerrero for some longer-term assets prior to Opening Day. To be clear, if Toronto spends the rest of its offseason adding talent to take another run at contention in 2025, it would seem far more likely that the Jays just keep Guerrero to keep their roster as strong as possible in what might be something of a final run for the Guerrero/Bo Bichette core.
The length of the $340MM offer wasn’t specified, but a ten-year, $340MM pact produces “only” an average annual value of $34MM per season, which ranks tied for the 15th-highest AAV in baseball history. Nine years and $340MM is a $37.77MM AAV that ranks as the seventh-highest all-time, topped only by the most recent deals signed by Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Judge. An eight-year, $340MM pact equals $42.5MM in AAV, putting Guerrero behind only Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer, and Verlander.
Guerrero doesn’t turn 26 until March, however, so an eight-year deal only runs through his age-33 season. Even a ten-year deal brings Guerrero through just his age-35 campaign, and a longer-term deal in the $340MM range only lowers the AAV to an even greater extent. It isn’t necessarily clear what Guerrero is looking for in terms of contract length, but in terms of pure dollars, it is easy to see why he would balk at an offer worth slightly more than half of what Soto (who is also entering his age-26 season) received from New York.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the gap in production between Soto and Guerrero would justify a gap in earnings, though it isn’t quite as large a divide as one might imagine. Soto’s huge 2024 campaign with the Yankees boosted his asking price through the ceiling, but looking just at his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit .284/.421/.524 with 160 home runs in 3375 plate appearances, with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 fWAR.
Through his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 in 3540 PA, with the exact same total of 160 homers, and a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR. For both players, their value is largely derived from their bat, as public defensive and baserunning metrics paint Guerrero and Soto as well below average in both departments.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently discussed what it might take to extend Guerrero, and floated the idea of a contract of somewhere between $500MM-$600MM. Assuming no deferred money would be involved, this would make Guerrero the second-highest paid player in baseball history, behind only Soto. “Excessive as it might sound to the average fan…keep in mind, the Jays would need to pay a premium for preventing Guerrero from testing the market. And if they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base might revolt,” Rosenthal writes.
The latter point is another over-arching element of the Guerrero talks, as perhaps no executives in baseball are on as much of a hot seat as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro. While the Blue Jays came out of a rebuild to reach the playoffs in 2020, 2022, 2023, the club didn’t win even a single game during those trips to the postseason, and Toronto’s nosedive to a 74-88 record in 2024 could be a sign that the Jays’ competitive window could already be closed.
Toronto’s ardent pursuits of both Ohtani last offseason and Soto this winter indicated that ownership was prepared to go the distance in bidding on top-flight talent, though it remains to be seen if the Jays view Guerrero quite in the same tier those other two superstars. It was just a year ago that Guerrero was coming off an underwhelming 118 wRC+ in 2023, and there were questions about whether Guerrero was even worth any kind of long-term investment. For comparison’s sake, Soto’s “worst” full season as calculated by wRC+ was his 2019 campaign, when he posted a 143 wRC+ in 659 PA while also catching fire in the postseason to help the Nationals win the World Series.
Viewing Guerrero in relation to Soto specifically is a comp that Guerrero’s reps at the Prime Agency would likely welcome, as it keeps Guerrero even subconsciously linked to Soto’s elite salary tier. Rafael Devers’ ten-year, $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox is also frequently mentioned as a Guerrero comp, as Devers was also entering his age-26 season. Guerrero has some statistical edge (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons prior to his extension) and thus an argument to earn more than Devers got from Boston, but perhaps the Blue Jays’ $340MM-ish number reflects the idea of Guerrero as only slightly better than Devers.
It could also be, of course, that the Jays are willing to pay well above $340MM, but offered that figure as an early gauge on Guerrero’s asking price in the wake of Soto’s contract. Plenty of time still exists for the two sides to eventually match up on an acceptable extension, and it could be that Guerrero backs off his early-spring deadline if some progress has been made, even if a new deal isn’t exactly imminent.
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