One of the difficulties of evaluating teams during the nonconference portion of the season is that many top programs load their schedules with home games. Sure, multi-team events like the Thanksgiving Feast Week tournaments feature games on neutral sites, but the ratio of home games to true road contests is heavily tilted toward the former. And road games truly reveal the mettle of the best teams in the country.
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USC proved itself in a boisterous environment in Hartford, Conn., staving off a late rally from UConn to extend its seven-game winning streak. TCU continues to rebound from its blowout loss to South Carolina, starting Big 12 play with a bang at UCF. LSU had a pseudo road game, traveling to Aneesah Morrow’s hometown of Chicago and winning convincingly at UIC to remain one of Division I’s eight undefeated teams.
💦💦💦💦 pic.twitter.com/yVgZjfffVJ
— USC Women’s Basketball (@USCWBB) December 22, 2024
Other squads fell short in their away tests, even against unranked opponents, and will have to sit with those results for a long time, as every team takes the week off for the holidays before conference play resumes over the weekend. Until then, let’s take stock of which teams are worth celebrating and which have been inflating their success by padding their resumes at home.
Dropped out: Michigan (24)
Almost famous: Iowa, Utah, Vanderbilt
Three rising teams
UCLA’s defensive gains
Technically, the Bruins can’t rise any higher in the ranking from the top spot, but kudos to UCLA for maintaining a strong run of play despite missing Lauren Betts, the team’s fulcrum on both ends of the floor. The Bruins are a massive, athletic team that suffocates opponents regardless of who is available. Against Creighton, which gave UCLA difficulty in the second round of last season’s NCAA Tournament, the Bruins were quicker to the spot every time the Bluejays moved the ball, vaporizing openings before they appeared.
With two big guards in the starting lineup in Kiki Rice and Elina Aarnisalo, and three mobile frontcourt players, there are no mismatches to be found. Even 5-foot-4 Londynn Jones fills her role by using her speed to stay attached defensively. Creighton thought it could attack Angela Dugalić, but the fifth-year forward caused havoc on the perimeter and in the paint against the Bluejays, who rank 16th nationally in offensive rating.
The Bruins historically have been a strong defensive unit under Cori Close, but the major improvement thus far has been their ability to defend without fouling. UCLA committed fouls on 24.1 percent of its possessions in 2022-23 (sixth percentile) and 22 percent in 2023-24 (22nd percentile). That figure is down to 18.2 percent this season (84th percentile), as the Bruins have productively harnessed their defensive aggression. By limiting fouls and being an elite defensive rebounding team, UCLA can close out possessions more effectively.
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Oklahoma’s 3-point difference
A year ago at the Jumpman Invitational, the Sooners had a truly abominable offensive showing. They made their first 3-pointer of the game, and then proceeded to miss the next 26 in a 61-52 loss to North Carolina. It was hard to keep that performance out of mind when Oklahoma faced Michigan in Charlotte in this season’s event, even as the Wolverines limit opponents to 22.9 percent shooting from 3-point range, the eighth-best mark nationally.
The Sooners are shooting about 3 percentage points better from long distance than last season (31.3 percent to 34.2), though the players attempting those shots — Payton Verhulst, Lexy Keys, Skylar Vann and Nevaeh Tot — haven’t changed. The main change in Oklahoma is the addition of Raegan Beers, who doesn’t really shoot from long range, but her presence has made those shots easier.
First and foremost, Beers clears space with her screens up high. When Oklahoma enters the ball into the post, she often draws a second defender and is quick to whip the ball back out to an open shooter. Sometimes, Beers merely sealing or rolling into the lane is enough to command help, and the moment an additional defender even sinks toward the paint, that creates an opening behind the 3-point line.
With Beers on the floor, the Sooners shoot 12.5 percentage points better on 3s, and the matchup against the Wolverines clearly indicates how.
Alabama shouldn’t be off the radar
You’d be forgiven for missing Alabama’s victories over Michigan State and Richmond last week, both of which aired on BallerTV (yes, that’s a real thing) with the camera angle of someone in the stands using their cell phone to stream the game.
But the production quality doesn’t diminish the quality of the wins. The Crimson Tide have had rare continuity and balance in 2024-25, with the same five starters through all 13 games and four averaging double figures. The quintet all reached double digits in wins over the Spartans and Spiders, making Alabama’s offense uniquely challenging to contain.
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The Crimson Tide space the floor well with their shooting, which also allows for drives to the basket; late help on those drives means Alabama makes a living at the foul line. The Crimson Tide are 11th nationally in made 3s and 10th in attempted free throws. Against Michigan State, they took control with a 31-11 third quarter featuring four 3-pointers and four free throws. Against Richmond, Alabama closed out the win with a 24-15 fourth quarter that included three triples and seven made foul shots.
Aaliyah Nye has been the tone-setter from beyond the arc, shooting 42.3 percent and making 3.4 3-pointers per game; her 18 points were a game high against the Spartans. The fifth-year guard was held without a 3 only in a loss to Cal. Meanwhile, sophomore Essence Cody makes 3.5 free throws per game. Every other Alabama starter averages at least one made 3 and free throw per contest.
Two falling teams
Duke’s turnover troubles
After a rip-roaring start to the 2024-25 campaign that saw the Blue Devils score at least 80 points seven times in their first 11 games (they scored 80 points seven times during the entire 2023-24 season), a 56-point outing against South Florida raised some concerns about Duke’s offense.
The Blue Devils turned the ball over at an alarming rate against the Bulls, posting 12 turnovers to six made field goals in the first half, including four turnovers on the first six possessions, as Duke fell behind 33-15 at the break. There was a mix of moving screens, feet shuffling on drives and silly passes. One of the first-quarter giveaways by backup point guard Vanessa de Jesus was so maddening that coach Kara Lawson sat her for the rest of the contest.
Duke’s test in South Florida was its fifth true road game, an abnormally high number at this point of the season. The Blue Devils are 2-3 in those games, with wins over Liberty and South Dakota State, and losses also at Maryland and South Carolina. Despite the early turnover trouble in Tampa, the offense hasn’t been the problem. Rather, the defense hasn’t traveled for Duke. Its defensive rating balloons from 69.9 points per 100 possessions at home to 103.8 at the road. The Blue Devils don’t rebound well, and their pressure defense turns into a liability without a true rim protector.
Those numbers should normalize as the season progresses — for instance, Duke’s opponents on the road are shooting 46.9 percent from 3, an absolutely outrageous figure — but the Blue Devils’ composure on the road is something to keep an eye on. They’ve been blitzed early against the Terrapins, Gamecocks and now the Bulls — a worrying trend for a team with high ambitions.
Was West Virginia exposed?
The Mountaineers are among the steadiest teams in Division I. They win games they’re supposed to and compete against better opponents, even if they can’t always pull an upset. That’s why West Virginia’s Big 12 opener against Colorado felt like a gimme — the Buffaloes aren’t great at taking care of the ball, and as a new member of the conference, they weren’t familiar with the Mountaineers’ press.
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Instead, West Virginia wore down as the game went on, which is what usually happens to its opponents. Colorado hunted mismatches in the halfcourt with its pick-and-roll offense as Kindyll Wetta and Kennedy Sanders had excellent playmaking performances, and the Buffaloes rode the momentum of their home crowd to outscore the Mountaineers by 16 in the final period.
Unlike Duke, this was only West Virginia’s second true road game of the schedule, and it looked like a completely different team from the one that has picked on lesser opponents in Morgantown. Other than a 5-point neutral site defeat to Texas, the Mountaineers haven’t exactly impressed against strong competition this season, but they have racked up lopsided victories in the friendly confines of WVU Coliseum. It’s time to take a closer look at West Virginia to see if the press is a front-running gimmick that can be solved, or if this Colorado loss was a blip.
(Photo of Kara Lawson: Ian Maule / Getty Images)
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