The Red Sox did some last-minute Christmas shopping Monday, agreeing to sign two-time All-Star Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05 million contract. By adding Garrett Crochet and Buehler — as well as rehabbing lefty Patrick Sandoval — so far this month, Boston has greatly revamped its rotation and will enter 2025 with a different-looking group than the one that, for the most part, exceeded expectations in 2024.
Here are five thoughts on the Buehler addition:
1. Buehler, like Crochet, comes with risk — but in an inverse sort of way
Every pitching addition comes with risk no matter what a team gives up, and that’s certainly the case with both Crochet, who took four prospects to obtain, and Buehler, who got a high-value, one-year deal. Injuries have been part of both pitchers’ stories. But the Red Sox are betting on two different types of upside here.
Crochet, 25, had Tommy John surgery in April 2022, returned to absolutely dominate in his first year as a starter, and is on the ascent, possibly to being one of the very top pitchers in all of baseball despite having a very small sample size of success (just 146 innings, all in 2024). Buehler, 30, comes with the track record — he’s a two-time All-Star and World Series champion who has 122 starts under his belt since 2017 — but returned from a two-year Tommy John layoff to pitch poorly (5.38 ERA, 1.553 WHIP in 16 starts) for the Dodgers in the regular season last year. While his postseason performance was encouraging, there were alarm bells set off by how he pitched before October, and that’s why he had to take a one-year deal as a free agent despite the past accolades.
So the Red Sox are getting Crochet on the upswing, at the peak of his value, and Buehler on the downswing, at something close to the nadir of his. They’re two different bets with Boston hoping for the same result.
On a pitching market in which certainty is available — Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Luis Castillo were all Red Sox targets with pretty high floors — Boston instead landed two guys with extreme upside but some risk involved as well.
2. It’s hard to see another addition to what’s now a crowded, deep rotation mix
The Red Sox now have a deep rotation mix that includes the two newcomers (Crochet and Buehler), the three homegrown righties (Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford) and a rehabbing veteran who’s expected to have a big role in 2025 (Lucas Giolito) plus three optionable depth pieces (Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester). That’s six proven big league starters plus three insurance options and that’s not even counting Garrett Whitlock (seems ticketed for the bullpen at this point), Hunter Dobbins (who will start at Triple-A) or Sandoval (out for at least the first half as he continues to rehab).
It’s a group that’s suddenly pretty deep and talented, significantly moreso than 2024, with the main subtraction being Nick Pivetta. Crochet is the clear No. 1, Buehler has pitched like an ace in the past and Houck, Giolito and Bello all have the upside to be top-of-the-rotation guys. And now, with Buehler in tow, it’s pretty hard to envision the Red Sox continuing to add despite there still being free agents (Burnes, Pivetta, Jack Flaherty, Andrew Heaney) and trade candidates (Castillo, Jared Jones, Dylan Cease) readily available. If there’s a move to be made involving the starting group, it might be a creative trade using someone like Crawford, but there’s been nothing to suggest Craig Breslow is interested in doing anything other than stockpiling arms.
(The Roki Sasaki sweepstakes are a totally different ballgame and a surprise successful Red Sox pursuit there would obviously change things significantly. At this time, it’s not known whether or not Boston was granted a meeting with Sasaki.)
Look no further than the beginning of last season to see how important it is to have way more then five available arms penciled into your rotation mix on Opening Day. By mid-April, the Red Sox had already lost Giolito for their season, Pivetta and Bello for short stints and Whitlock for what turned out to be the long haul. A group that looked deep in March had to rely on Criswell for 18 starts and James Paxton for a pre-injury cameo before the trade deadline. The Dodgers had eight pitchers make more than 10 starts in 2024. That’s just how the game is played now.
3. Buehler adds leadership — and a winning pedigree — that the rotation was lacking
Crochet, Houck, Bello and Crawford have never started a postseason game. Giolito has twice, in the wild card round in 2020 and the ALDS in 2021. Buehler has 18 playoff starts, a 3.04 October ERA over 94 ⅔ innings and just threw the final pitch to close out a World Series at Yankee Stadium. That’s no small thing for a Red Sox team that’s aiming to get back to the playoffs and needs a horse who has been there and done that.
It’s clear the Red Sox were lacking leadership at key points during last season with the early-year injuries to Giolito and Story taking the wind out of the sails of the expected order of things in the clubhouse. Buehler and Giolito, who will celebrate their 31st birthdays two weeks apart in late July, should set the tone for the rotation in a way no one has since Nate Eovaldi’s departure following the 2022 season.
4. Buehler’s deal isn’t a mega-deal, but it’s still a big-market move (and a tidy piece of business)
Yes, the Yankees handed $218 million to Fried and the Dodgers gave Blake Snell a five-year, $182 million deal. Other free agent starters like Eovaldi and Sean Manaea (3 years, $75 million each), Yusei Kikuchi (3 years, $63 million) and Luis Severino (3 years, $67 million) have been handsomely paid. Burnes will likely eclipse $200 million, too.
But the Buehler addition, at the price of $21.05 million, is still something of a big-market move. As of now, he’ll be the third highest-paid player on the team next year behind Rafael Devers and Story. Most teams aren’t willing to take on a free agent at that relatively high price for one year. The Red Sox haven’t acted like the Red Sox for years but the fact they’re willing to do is something of a good sign.
The $21.05 million value isn’t a coincidence. It’s the exact value of this year’s qualifying offer, which the Dodgers did not issue to Buehler. So the Red Sox will not give up a draft pick to sign him but will likely recoup one when Pivetta — who by all accounts is a lesser pitcher — signs elsewhere. It’s a good piece of business by Breslow in that regard.
5. With four pitchers added, the focus can now shift to adding a bat
Breslow meant it when he said he would look to add high-value pitching this winter. His first five big league moves of the winter (we’re not counting backup catcher Carlos Narvaez) were all for arms in Crochet, Buehler, Sandoval, Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson. There’s still some room for a big bullpen addition. But the most pressing priority is now right-handed pop.
Even after committing about $46 million to the guys they’ve added, the Red Sox are estimated to sit around $216-217 million in guaranteed payroll for 2025, giving them $24-25 million below the $241 million competitive balance tax threshold (which they’ve said they’re willing to exceed). There’s plenty of room to sign someone like Teoscar Hernández, who remains a perfect fit, or win the bidding war for Alex Bregman, who is unlikely to return to Houston. Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar and Randal Grichuk also remain free agents.
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