What a fun scene it was this past weekend in the opening round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. While most of the discourse was (annoyingly) about who did/didn’t belong after some blowout games, I really enjoyed watching the on-campus atmosphere of the opening round. I’m sure the Indiana, SMU and Tennessee fans were way more excited to see their teams play in a meaningful game with an opportunity to extend their season than they would’ve been to watch them play in a meaningless bowl game where veteran and star players likely opt out. I’m choosing to enjoy the playoff for what it is rather than moan about what it isn’t. Now, the stage is set for neutral site bowls in the college football playoffs quarterfinals, and my T Shoe Index has you covered with projections for all of them.
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Fiesta Bowl
Penn State wasted little time disposing of SMU, who was clearly overmatched and overwhelmed by the Happy Valley crowd, which was 99.9% Penn State fans. Drew Allar didn’t play his best game, but the Penn State defense was more than enough to comfortably put away the Mustangs, who seemed a little shell-shocked on the big stage. Now, the Nittany Lions will take on the Boise State Broncos and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty and the Broncos took Oregon to the wire earlier in the year, so they will not be intimidated by Penn State. Jeanty had one of his best games against the Ducks, rushing for 7.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns. TSI projects a much tighter game than anticipated by the market, but still has Penn State advancing to the semifinals to take on the Georgia/Notre Dame winner.
Projected score: Penn State 30, Boise State 26
College Football Playoffs Bet: Boise State +10.5
Peach Bowl
Texas vs Clemson was the lone competitive game in round 1, as it took a goal-line stand by Texas to really put Clemson away on Saturday. Now, the Longhorns will take on the scrappy underdogs of Arizona State, who easily disposed of Iowa State in its last game in the Big 12 championship. Despite never sniffing a stage this big, something tells me Kenny Dillingham’s team will remain unafraid of the moment and take their best swing here, led by RB Cam Skattebo. I don’t expect much public support for the Sun Devils here in the betting market, as Texas is now the favorite to win the national championship at most books. TSI projects a slightly closer game but still a comfortable Longhorns win that will propel them into the semifinals to take on the Ohio State/Oregon winner.
Projected score: Texas 30, Arizona State 18
Rose Bowl
As seemingly everyone counted Ohio State out after the Michigan game, the Buckeyes made quick work of Tennessee in “Neyland North,” jumping out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and never looking back. Now, the Buckeyes get their coveted rematch with Oregon, who beat them in Autzen Stadium in October by 1 point. The Buckeyes are favored in this game despite Oregon being undefeated and owning a win over Ohio State already. TSI is pretty much right in line with the market on the spread but is significantly lower on the total. Full disclosure: I wouldn’t want to bet an Under in this game because I feel like these high-level games between elite teams end up being shootouts (as we saw in the first version of this game), so I’m not going to take a stance either way here and just enjoy what should be a great game.
Projected Score: Ohio State 25, Oregon 23
Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame’s 10-point final margin against Indiana is pretty misleading, as the Irish dominated that game from the jump before Indiana punched in a couple of late touchdowns to make it look more respectable. I’ve been on record numerous times saying Notre Dame is a top-3 team in the country, and they’ll get the opportunity in this game to slay a giant and prove that they are. I posted on X Friday night (after bickering with some trolls) that I’ve now bet on Notre Dame 7 times this year (including their season win total) and am 7-0 doing so. TSI has been dialed in on the Irish since betting them Week 1 at Texas A&M. I’m going back to the well here as TSI likes the Irish to win outright.
Projected Score: Notre Dame 29, Georgia 24
College Football Playoffs Bet: Notre Dame ML +105
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