We’re at the time of year when the NFL releases weekly bulletins outlining the playoff clinching scenarios for the upcoming weekend, but the Miami Dolphins won’t be included in any of those.
The Dolphins actually would be on a list of elimination scenarios for this weekend — they’ll be done with a loss OR with victories by both the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos on Saturday — but the NFL doesn’t produce those.
If the Dolphins are to make the playoffs, they will not be able to secure their spot until the final day of the 2024 regular season.
As we’ve indicated before, there are three things out of a possible four that need to happen for the Dolphins to make the playoffs, with the one ABSOLUTE must being the Dolphins winning their last two games, at Cleveland and at the New York Jets.
That leaves two of the following three need to materialize, though it doesn’t matter which two:
— The L.A. Chargers lose their final two games.
— The Denver Broncos lost their final two games.
— The Indianapolis Colts lost one of their final two games.
So how about we rank the four Dolphins needs in order of likelihood, which is where we’ll come to the conclusion the playoff hopes are very slim.
We don’t really need to go over the discrepancy between the Dolphins’ record against losing teams vs. those going to the playoffs, other than to say this season it’s just as pronounced as ever when Tua Tagovailoa is starting at QB. With Tua in the lineup, the Dolphins are 5-1 against teams with a losing record, the only loss coming in his first game back against the Arizona Cardinals. The record with Tua against teams currently holding a playoff position is 1-4. Neither the Cleveland Browns nor the New York Jets came close to sniffing the playoffs this season, and the only thing that doesn’t make the Dolphins winning out to finish 9-8 is the fact both games will be on the road. But they’ll be clear favorites to win both games.
And right away it gets tricky, and this is where the Dolphins and their fans need to root hard in a game that doesn’t involve the Broncos, the Christmas Day matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Coming off their Thursday night loss against the Chargers, the Broncos are slight underdogs in their road game against the Cincinnati Bengals, who still have microscopic playoff hopes. Denver’s regular season finale is at home against the Chiefs, but that game could take a big turn if the Chiefs clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs by defeating the Steelers (or the Jets upsetting the Bills on Sunday, which isn’t likely). If K.C. clinches, you can expect Andy Reid to keep a few front-line players, starting with Patrick Mahomes, out of that Denver game. That makes the prospect of Denver losing that game a lot less realistic.
Like the Dolphins, the Colts are 7-8 and they’re probably nowhere near as good a team — except, they own the tiebreaker because they defeated Miami at Lucas Oil Stadium against Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle. The problem is Indy’s schedule, which ends with a road game against the New York Giants, who currently own the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft and actually have incentive to lose this game, and at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 3-12 and now have Mac Jones at quarterback. Anthony Richardson remains a very inconsistent quarterback with the ability to throw away a game, but the Colts are going to rely on their running game to limit his exposure.
The Chargers had the look of a team in big trouble down 21-10 late in the second quarter of their game against Denver, but they rallied and put themselves at the doorstep of the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first year with their second-half comeback. All the Chargers have to do is win one of their final two games. They’re both on the road, but they’re the three-win Patriots and the three-win Raiders. We’d expect the Chargers to win both games, but maybe a plucky effort by New England or Las Vegas could produce an upset. Two upsets, though? Not likely.
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