The Hawaii Bowl has a reputation for delivering some of the most thrilling matchups of the bowl season, and this year’s game has the potential to top them all.
With the USF Bulls and San Jose State Spartans bringing firepower and standout individual talent, this clash could turn into an all-out shootout—assuming the offensive starters take the field. Check out our USF vs. San Jose State prediction to see who we think comes out on top.
USF vs. San Jose State Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview
All USF vs. San Jose State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
USF -2.5 - Spread
San Jose State -2.5 - Moneyline
San Jose State -125, USF +105 - Over/Under
64.5 points - Game Time
Tuesday, Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET - Location
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex | Honolulu - How To Watch
ESPN
San Jose State started as 2.5-point favorites and the line moved further in the Spartans’ favor as more South Florida players entered the transfer portal. The Bulls’ chances likely hinge on the health of starting quarterback Byrum Brown, who has been out for a few months. The Spartans have lost a few defensive backs to the transfer portal as well, so if the Bulls can exploit that, they have a strong chance to pull off the upset.
If San Jose State superstar Nick Nash plays, this could be a true shootout, as evidenced by the total of 64.5 points. But all indicators are that Nash will not suit up, and as such, the line has dramatically moved back to 2.5 in favor of the Spartans instead of the bloated -5 it had jumped out to a week prior to kickoff.
USF’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is slightly higher on the Bulls, making them five-point favorites. That translates to a winning probability of 54.6%.
There have been rumors that a few defensive starters could enter the transfer portal. If that happens, this percentage could go down.
- vs. San Jose State: 54.6%
San Jose State’s Winning Probability
On the flip side, the Spartans are slight underdogs, with a winning probability of 45.4%. San Jose State retains the majority of its electric passing attack and the Spartans likely have a better chance of winning than this number suggests.
- vs. USF: 45.4%
Prediction for USF vs. San Jose State
This preview wouldn’t be complete without highlighting San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s much-anticipated homecoming. Niumatalolo stands as one of the greatest quarterbacks in Hawaii high school football history, graduating from Radford High School in Honolulu in 1985 and leading the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors from 1987 to 1989 under Paul Johnson’s option offense. He famously guided the Rainbow Warriors to their first-ever bowl game appearance in 1989.
You can’t help but wonder if Niumatalolo might air it out a bit more in his return to the Aloha State.
The key matchup here is the Spartans’ fourth-ranked passing offense squaring off against South Florida’s 133rd-ranked passing defense. The Bulls are already struggling in the secondary, and the absence of starting safety Tawfiq Byard only adds to their woes.
Reports suggest that Nash will not play, and even then, the over is still in play.
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On the other side, South Florida’s offense has shown flashes late in the season, with backup quarterback Bryce Archie gaining confidence. However, their surge has been schedule-driven. Against five opponents ranked below 110th in SP+, the Bulls averaged an explosive 50 points per game.
But against better competition? The offense falters. In five games against teams ranked at any point this season, the Bulls mustered just 10.2 points per game, breaking 15 points only in garbage-time showings against Alabama and Miami.
There’s a solid case that San Jose State might be the first respectable team the Bulls have faced all season. The Spartans’ defense isn’t as stout as Tulane’s or Memphis’, but it’s far better than the likes of Charlotte or Southern Miss.
My read? The real South Florida offense falls somewhere between these extremes—but leans closer to the unit that stumbled against Navy than the one that trounced FAU.
Even if the Bulls manage some offensive success, it’s hard to see them containing the Spartans. San Jose State should easily surpass 500 yards.
Take Nash’s overs, take the game over, and expect a comfortable Spartans victory.
Prediction: San Jose State 42, USF 23
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