Texas took care of business as the biggest favorite in the first round at home and now heads to the Peach Bowl to take on Big 12 Champions Arizona State.
The Longhorns are the biggest favorite for the second straight round as the team is expected to have plenty of firepower to outclass the Sun Devils, who smashed expectations this season under second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham. Will the Longhorns make it two straight covers in the CFP and clinch its spot in the semifinals?
Here’s our betting preview.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 51.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas
Quinn Ewers: Ewers had a strong showing in the first round, well-equipped to take advantage of an out-manned Clemson defense, passing for 358 yards with four big-time throws to two turnover-worthy plays. Ewers did struggle with protecting the ball during the regular season, posting more turnover-worthy plays relative to big-time throws, and will face an Arizona State defense that thrived on turnovers this season to offset a shaky pass rush.
Arizona State
Cam Skattebo: Skattebo finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy voting this season, totaling more than 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns as the focal point of the Sun Devils offense. However, the Texas defensive line will be the toughest that Arizona State has seen, can Skattebo rise to the occasion?
The Sun Devils are out-manned in this one, but Texas continues to struggle to get a ton of margin on its opponents, evident in the team’s 14-point win against Clemson despite building a convincing lead.
The issue for the Sun Devils is how the team competes down-to-down as the team will be without wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who suffered a shoulder injury in the regular season finale. Arizona State has been able to post a top 20 EPA/Play mark with its ability to scheme players open downfield and a Big 12 schedule, but this is a significant step up in competition.
However, I believe we see Arizona State show some life early in this one. We saw Clemson put together a strong opening script in the first round and I believe that with extra rest ASU can show life early with the ability to use Leavitt in the quarterback run game and the bruising Skattebo early.
Meanwhile, the Texas offense should have plenty of time to operate in this one. The ASU rush defense is elite, top 20 in EPA/Rush, but the pass rush is bottom 10 in the country, per Pro Football Focus.
While Texas crushed Clemson with its run game in the first round, this game will likely focus more on the Longhorns passing game against Arizona State’s defense which is about the national average in EPA/Pass and rates worse in sacks.
The key here will be can ASU stop the Longhorns in the red zone? The Sun Devils are outside the top 100 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, something the Longhorns have struggled with at times but excelled for the most part against Clemson.
If Texas is converting in close, Arizona State will struggle to keep up, but my favorite look in this game is to pounce early on a sound opening script from the Sun Devils and Texas’ overall talent edge.
PICK: First Half OVER 26.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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