Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff rooting guide: Which games matter the most for Irish?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — You may not have heard of Rich Clark.  That’s fine. It’s also probably temporary.

The first-year executive director of the College Football Playoff attended Notre Dame’s opening night win at Texas A&M during Labor Day weekend, as the former Lieutenant General in the Air Force fills the role Bill Hancock occupied the previous 12 seasons. If the new 12-team CFP has a spokesman, it’s Clark.

And Clark had a microphone this week, trying to set expectations before the season’s first CFP rankings come out on Tuesday.

For Notre Dame, it’s worth paying attention to what Clark said. Because it feels like the goalposts might be moving before they’re installed.

Clark was asked about conference championship games and their impact on the final rankings, still more than a month away. Notre Dame won’t be participating in a conference title game, forgoing any chance at a first-round bye. But the assumption was teams that went down on championship weekend would take a loss in the rankings, as well.

After all, if there’s a reward, shouldn’t there be a risk?

“I don’t think a team would be unduly penalized if they lost in a conference championship game,” Clark said this week. “The fact that they’re in a championship game, I don’t think that is going to be a major data point that the committee will evaluate. It will just be what happened in that game.”

In the most literal sense, that could mean if Notre Dame and a Power 4 team both finish 11-1, the conference team that loses on championship weekend wouldn’t be penalized for it. Or, to pick out a more real-world scenario, if BYU and Iowa State meet in the Big 12 Championship Game both undefeated, the loser would be treated as a 12-0 team by the committee after losing. Or maybe Penn State vs. Oregon in the Big Ten. Or even Clemson vs. Miami in the ACC.

You get the point. Because for all the algorithms available to project the field at The Athletic (or anywhere else), there’s a human element we don’t understand because no one has ever set a 12-team field. How much does beating a potential SEC champion help? How much does losing to a mediocre MAC program hurt? It’s impossible to know which trap doors might open for Notre Dame, whether they bump the Irish out of hosting a first-round game or perhaps even out of the field entirely.

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As Notre Dame takes its second bye week, here’s a viewer’s guide to the games that matter most for the Irish to make the 12-team field and how high they might rise in those rankings.

Litmus Test: Ohio State at Penn State

Notre Dame, Ohio State and Penn State have all played similar schedules, per the Sagarin rankings, with the Irish (No. 56), Buckeyes (No. 52) and Nittany Lions (No. 43) all bunched together. If No. 3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) takes a home loss this weekend to a top-10 team, would James Franklin’s program drop below Marcus Freeman’s squad in the initial rankings? it’s hard to say. Or what if No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) takes a second loss, but both are against top-five teams? Would the two-loss Buckeyes, fresh off a struggle to beat Nebraska, drop below Notre Dame?

One way or another, Notre Dame will get a data point next week about how it stacks up against a Big Ten heavyweight. If Penn State wins, that would all but eliminate Ohio State from Big Ten Championship Game contention. The Buckeyes wouldn’t have a bad loss, but they wouldn’t have a great win either. If Ohio State wins, it would be the same deal for the Nittany Lions: no great win but no bad loss.

Ohio State still hosts Indiana and Michigan in the final two weeks of the regular season. That means the Buckeyes will get national attention, even with a loss in State College. Penn State, however, could be out of sight with a loss considering it closes with Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. And one loss might be too much to make the Big Ten Championship Game.

The best case for Notre Dame? Probably a Penn State win.

Sneaky problem … SMU?

As tempting as it might be the look up at the rankings to see how high Notre Dame can climb between now and Selection Sunday, there’s a former Group of 5 program that shouldn’t be dismissed: No. 20 SMU (7-1, 4-0 ACC) hosts No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-0, 3-0) this weekend, with the Mustangs set as 7.5-point favorites at home.

If SMU knocks off Pitt, the ACC newcomer is likely to win out — Boston College, at Virginia, Cal remain — and there’s a good chance the Mustangs would miss the ACC Championship Game if Clemson and Miami win out, which likely activates the league’s fifth tiebreaker (combined win percentage of conference opponents). The prospect of a team going undefeated in conference play and not getting a chance to play its way into the CFP was sort of the reason why SMU bolted the American Athletic Conference in the first place.

The only blemish on SMU’s record is an 18-15 home loss to undefeated BYU. SMU beat Louisville by a touchdown and blew out Stanford … which probably feels familiar for Notre Dame. Virginia represents a third common opponent, with the Cavaliers heading to South Bend on Nov. 16 before visiting Dallas a week later.

According to the Sagarin, SMU’s schedule ranks No. 58 compared to Notre Dame at No. 56.

Notre Dame and SMU might feel like incongruous CFP contenders, but a look under the hood shows more similarities than differences. But that all goes away if SMU loses at home to Pitt on Saturday night. And Pitt still faces Clemson on Nov. 16, which likely would stick the loser behind Notre Dame for good.

The best case for Notre Dame? Pittsburgh takes out SMU, then falls to Clemson two weeks later.

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Please don’t mess it up: Texas A&M at South Carolina

Winning in College Station means Notre Dame has one of the best wins in college football this season. At least until Texas A&M loses again.

If that loss comes in the regular-season finale at home to Texas, well, Notre Dame probably can live with that. The Aggies would be stuck behind Notre Dame for good, and the Irish would still have a win over a 10-2 team in the SEC. The Longhorns likely would be headed to the CFP no matter what happened in the SEC Championship Game, likely a rematch with Georgia.

But that’s all for December …

What Notre Dame needs now is for Texas A&M to get out of Columbia unscathed, although the three-point spread in favor of the Aggies suggests a dangerous spot. Preserving that “great win” through the first rankings reveal would be a boon for Notre Dame. Texas A&M faces New Mexico State and Auburn the following two weeks before getting to Texas on Thanksgiving weekend. If that “great win” makes it through Saturday, it’s lasting until Thanksgiving weekend.

It’s just hard to forget South Carolina waxing No. 5 Tennessee in Columbia two years ago. Those Gamecocks lost by 32 points at Florida a week earlier, then demolished the Volunteers.

The best case for Notre Dame? Duh. Texas A&M keeps winning.

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The chaos chain: Everything else

These aren’t the only games that matter for Notre Dame’s CFP positioning, just the most obvious. Who would have tagged Alabama at Vanderbilt as having a CFP impact when it kicked off during Notre Dame’s first bye week?

That’s why Indiana at Michigan State and Texas Tech at Iowa State are worth watching, too. The Hoosiers and Cyclones are undefeated CFP contenders that might be able to take a loss and still make the field, but it’s hard to believe they’d be ahead of a one-loss Notre Dame unless they somehow won their conferences.

There’s also Louisville at Clemson, which would give Notre Dame another point of comparison against the Tigers, who already have beaten Florida State, Virginia and Stanford. Or what about Oregon traveling to Michigan? That’s a pure chaos game for Notre Dame, one that probably looks like a blowout on paper … but it’s college football. Anything can happen.

It’s why this weekend could shake out to be seismic for Notre Dame, even if the Irish are sitting at home watching the madness unfold. Ever since the loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish have kept up their end of the bargain. Now the rest of the true CFP contenders have to do the same.

(Top photo of Marcus Freeman: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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