Ohio State and Texas meet in the Cotton Bowl with the winner set to play in the National Championship Game.
The Buckeyes are fresh off two of the most dominant performances of the season with their blowout wins against Tennessee and Oregon this season and will look to make it a third against Texas.
The Longhorns are off a thrilling victory against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl, winning in double overtime on New Year’s Day.
The betting market has shifted swiftly towards the Buckeyes, but is it enough? Can the Longhorns find answers and keep this game competitive, or is the market not catching up to the vaunted Buckeyes?
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 53.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
The Buckeyes’ offense has unleashed its best self in the College Football Playoff, focusing on its high-octane passing attack that has hung 40-plus points on its two opponents. While Texas may be the best defense it has seen to date, the unit may not be able to keep up with the Buckeyes passing game.
Here’s what we said in our betting preview earlier this week.
The Buckeyes are a big favorite in this one and its hard to look past what the team has done over its last two games to justify this point spread.
The Longhorns defense is elite, but will surely be tested against the Buckeyes passing game that has leaned into its strength at wide receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. The two wide receivers have combined for 23 catches and 442 yards with five touchdowns in the two postseason games.
Texas’ secondary has proven to be elite, but the team hasn’t faced many elite passing games this season. Going back through the Longhorns season, the team hasn’t faced a top 20 passing game this season – Georgia is the closest at 22nd – and Ohio State checks in fourth in that metric. There’s a case to be made that OSU is first given some of the overall schematic changes it made in the postseason.
Further, Texas is entering a bit gassed after playing nearly 38 minutes of defense against Arizona State as well as two overtimes. This team will need to be firing on all cylinders to keep up with the Buckeyes, and it’s fair to question if it truly can keep up.
On the other side of the ball, Texas will be swimming upstream against a sturdy Ohio State defense. As noted in our betting preview, the Buckeyes will make this game fall on the arm of Quinn Ewers, who has been up-and-down all season in Steve Sarkisian’s offense.
The Buckeyes defense has been an elite one all season, top of the country in many statistics, including the best success rate mark in the nation. The Longhorns have shown that it can take the top off of opposing defenses, but a big issue in this one will be that the team’s run game continues to be shaky.
Ohio State is top five in the country in EPA/Rush, shutting down nearly every run game on its schedule in the run-first Big Ten, and Texas averaged fewer than three yards per carry against Arizona State. A lot of pressure will fall on Ewers to find answers against a Buckeyes secondary that has been nails against the pass, eighth in coverage grading according to Pro Football Focus.
I like Ohio State in this one due to its ability to show this high of a ceiling while its fair to question if Texas can match it. However, we are paying quite the premium to bet Ohio State against arguably the most talented roster left in the field that isn’t the Buckeyes.
Texas has been rated highly all season, and Ohio State is rising faster than oddsmakers can adjust. Ultimately, the Buckeyes have far too much firepower to win, but I’m not as interested in laying the points in case Sarkisian can scheme up some passes for Ewers against an Ohio State defense that is 40th in explosive pass defense.
If Texas hits a few deep passes, the team can stay within the point spread in a higher-than-expected scoring game, but I’m most confident that this Buckeyes offense can’t be slowed down, so my favorite bet is on the OSU team total which is listed at 29.5.
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 34, Texas 20
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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