Welcome to the Skull Session.
Question: Is 14 pressures in two games good?
Leaders in QB Pressures This Post-Season:
JT Tuimoloau, Ohio State: 14@OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/XV2ttAJkWW
— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 7, 2025
Have a good Wednesday.
GOING BACK TO MY ROOTS. It’s Wednesday. In the regular season, that meant a section on SP+ and the College Football Power Index in the Skull Session. After a long hiatus, I think it’s time for a brief look at how the computers have viewed the Buckeyes’ postseason dominance.
SP+
| RANK | TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 30.9 | 39.3 (3) | 8.6 (1) | 0.2 (64) |
| 4 | TEXAS | 26.1 | 38.2 (9) | 10.3 (2) | -1.8 (120) |
| 6 | PENN STATE | 25.8 | 38.2 (7) | 12.3 (5) | -0.1 (67) |
| 7 | NOTRE DAME | 25.5 | 38.5 (6) | 12.1 (6) | -0.9 (92) |
College Football Power Index
| RANK | TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 26.8 | 48.4% | 28.4% |
| 2 | TEXAS | 25.9 | 51.6% | 26.9% |
| 3 | NOTRE DAME | 25.7 | 58.1% | 29.1% |
| 7 | PENN STATE | 22.5 | 42.0% | 15.6% |
ESPN Matchup Predictor
| BOWL GAME | LOCATION | AWAY TEAM | HOME TEAM | ESPN PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COTTON BOWL | DALLAS, TX | OHIO STATE | TEXAS | TEXAS 50.6% |
ESPN Matchup Predictor likes Texas…
How about that?
Steve Sarkisian told me the Longhorns were massive underdogs…
THE GAMES WITHIN THE GAME. You all know the love-hate relationship I have with Pro Football Focus. In this Wednesday Skull Session, it will be all love between me and PFF as I share some advanced analytics from Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman.
This week, Chadwick and Wasserman released a College Football Playoff semifinal preview episode of the PFF College Football Show. In it, the analysts discussed four matchups to watch in the battle between Ohio State and Texas: Quinn Ewers vs. Jim Knowles’ new favorite coverage, Texas’ outside-zone heavy scheme vs. Ohio State’s front six, Ohio State’s receivers vs. Texas’ defensive backs, and Ohio State’s counter-heavy schemes vs. Texas’ front seven.
Here’s a breakdown of each matchup:
NOTE: All statistics come from PFF
Quinn Ewers vs. Jim Knowles’ new favorite coverage
In the CFP, Knowles has used his Cover 2 most often at 25.5 percent. Usually, the Buckeyes run a Tampa 2 scheme in a traditional look where Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom are both responsible for a deep half of the field, and a linebacker covers seam routes between them. However, against Tennessee and Oregon, Knowles placed Ransom and Jordan Hancock in the deep halves and let Downs lurk over the middle of the field. This allowed Ohio State to limit deep balls as Downs defended the seams and helped in run support with his (unanimous) All-American capabilities.
Ewers and Texas have had issues against Cover 2 this season, with the veteran quarterback having a 55.8 passing grade with five turnover-worthy passes across 56 dropbacks. As a team, the Longhorns rank 51st in the FBS against two-high defenses compared to fifth against one-high defenses. Expect a lot of two-high from Ohio State on Friday.
Texas’ outside-zone heavy scheme vs. Ohio State’s front six
Texas has called outside zone on 34 percent of its rushing attempts this season, the 17th highest rate in the FBS. The concept worked wonders against Clemson, as the Longhorns ran it 23 times for 249 yards and two scores in the contest. However, Texas had little to no success with their ol’ reliable against Arizona State, as the Longhorns ran it nine times for 15 yards.
A reason for that split could be right tackle Cameron Williams’ absence from the Peach Bowl. The future first-round pick has an 84.5 run-blocking grade on outside zone (14th among tackles), while his replacement, Trevor Goosby, has a 52.1 mark (251st). Williams should be back for the Cotton Bowl. His presence would provide a boost to the Texas offense, but it may not add success to the Longhorns’ outside zones.
Why?
Ohio State leads the Power Four with a 90.7 run-defense grade against the concept, allowing only 0.2 yards before contact per attempt. Cody Simon also ranks third among FBS linebackers with an 89.9 run-defense grade against outside zone. Meanwhile, JT Tuimoloau (86.4) and Jack Sawyer (82.4) rank first and sixth among FBS defensive ends.
Ohio State’s receivers vs. Texas’ defensive backs
No one can slow down Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate – except maybe Texas. (I don’t believe that, but I’ll still share what PFF presented.)
This season, Texas has led college football with a 92.5 coverage grade, a product of three defensive backs with above-85 grades: cornerback Jahdae Barron and safeties Andrew Mukuba and Michael Taaffe. The Longhorns also rank first in the FBS with a 59.8 passer rating allowed and third with a 9.3 percent explosive pass rate allowed.
Ohio State’s counter-heavy scheme vs. Texas’ front seven
In the regular season, Ohio State ran counter schemes 10 percent of the time. In its two CFP games, that number ballooned to 49 percent. The payoff for the Buckeyes has been evident in their production against Tennessee and Oregon, with 30 counters leading to 7.3 yards per attempt and three touchdowns. Considering Texas has seen just 55 counters this season, recording a respectable 83.8 run-defense grade, Chip Kelly could lean on the concept again in the Cotton Bowl – and maybe even add some wrinkles to it. He is one of the best offensive coordinators in college football, after all.
“IF TEAM A SHOWS UP…” Enough with the analytics! Now, it’s time for opinions!
In the latest episode of The Triple Option podcast, former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer picked the Buckeyes to win the national championship. That is, if “Team A” shows up in the Cotton Bowl, Meyer said.
“If Team A shows up… this will be a wrap,” Meyer told his co-host Rob Stone. “Ohio State will lift the gold trophy. If the best roster in the country plays like the best roster in the country, they’ll be national champs in a few weeks, and we’re witnessing it. I witnessed it in person the last two weeks. They took Tennessee – I stood right there – and it was not close. The game against Oregon was much worse in person. … Every skill player at Ohio State, I think, will be playing substantially in the National Football League. That’s how good they are.”
Hard to argue with that.
It’s also hard to argue Meyer’s take that the era of SEC dominance in college football has ended.
“It’s over,” he said. “Now, next year’s another year. But for the last two years, it’s over.”
Meyer admitted that he used to be part of the “SEC bandwagon” earlier in his coaching career. I can’t blame him. He won two national titles at Florida, including one where he and the Gators whooped Ohio State up and down the field. Still, almost two decades later, Meyer said the gap between the SEC and Big Ten isn’t as wide as some make it seem.
“I coached in (the SEC) and, top to bottom, it wasn’t even close when I got to the Big Ten in 2012. Even (my wife) Shelly, who watched the games, said, ‘What is this? The speed on the field doesn’t even look the same.’ And it wasn’t,” Meyer said. “You can say what you want, but in 2012, the Big Ten was not a good conference relative to the SEC. Not even close.
“I think what’s happened is there’s been some additions. Obviously, Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC, but also people have really committed in the Big Ten. The upper-echelon Big Ten schools have really jumped on recruiting. You saw the Wolverines last year were one of the most dominant programs of the last decade. The Buckeyes have the best roster — I don’t think it’s close — in college football. Penn State has really put together a hell of a team. And then you have Illinois beating South Carolina. Think about that. … There’s a good argument now (for the Big Ten).”
A NEW FACE OF THE SPORT. Four teams remain in the CFP. Regardless of which team wins… Ohio State… the coach who hoists the CFP Trophy will join Clemson’s Dabo Swinney and Georgia’s Kirby Smart as the only active FBS head coaches to win a national championship. That will make said coach… Ryan Day… a new Face of the Sport, Chris Vannini of The Athletic wrote Tuesday.
When a coach wins a national championship, his status changes. People want to know what Smart and Swinney have to say. Smart is on the NCAA’s rules committee. Swinney is less involved legislatively but plenty vocal. On issues like name, image and likeness rules, the transfer portal and the future of the sport, there are few leading voices left among coaches at a crucial time. That’s where whoever wins it all this year can step in.
Nick Saban, the greatest coach in the sport’s history, retired last year and continues to vent about the state of the game on ESPN.
The quirky Jim Harbaugh won last year’s title at Michigan and successfully left for the NFL in his third attempt to go back to that level.The grandfatherly Mack Brown was pushed out at North Carolina at the end of this season.That’s nine national championships out the door of the active coaching pool, and with them went some legitimate power to drive conversation. Saban continues to be that voice at ESPN and periodically on Capitol Hill, but he still left the sideline in order to not deal with these issues directly anymore. Urban Meyer is also on TV. Les Miles is done with college football. Ed Orgeron is enjoying the buyout life. Jimbo Fisher was fired at Texas A&M a year ago with the largest buyout in college football history.
…
College football is about to gain a new Face of the Sport in whoever wins this national championship.
All four faced plenty of doubters in getting here. Pundits questioned Day’s job status at Ohio State after his fourth consecutive loss to Michigan. Sarkisian hadn’t won 10 games in a season through his first nine years as a head coach and was fired from USC for issues related to alcohol abuse, working his way back to a head coaching job after stints on Saban’s Alabama staff and in the NFL. Freeman’s future at Notre Dame was questioned after the Irish’s loss to Northern Illinois in September, two years after a similar loss to Marshall. Franklin has been maligned for his 4-16 record against Ohio State and Michigan.
But the creation of the 12-team CFP helped all four rack up some notable wins, pad their resumes and quiet the haters. Whoever wins the semifinals will have proven they’re the right man for the job. And whoever wins it all will make history.
What a turnaround that would be for Day. One moment, more than half his fan base wants him fired. The next, he becomes a new Face of the Sport.
SONG OF THE DAY. “Blitzkrieg Bop” – Ramones.
CUT TO THE CHASE. Kyle McCord’s 5 TD passes earn him a spot on AP’s all-bowl team… Deion Sanders received “multiple threats” during season, bodyguard says… Viola Davis and Ted Danson celebrated for career achievements in film and TV at Golden Globes… The Hollywood slog that led Adam Scott to “Severance” (one of my favorite shows at the moment!)…NASA hedges its bets on costly Mars rock mission.
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