NFL Divisional Round: Biggest immediate question for advancing/eliminated playoff teams

Will all that rest be a good or bad thing?

The Chiefs haven’t played a meaningful game since they beat Pittsburgh on Christmas Day to clinch the top seed in the AFC. Kansas City sat its most essential starters in a season-ending loss to Denver and then relaxed with its bye this weekend. Depending on whether the Chiefs play next Saturday or Sunday, they will have rested for either 24 or 25 days going into the Divisional Round. It’s worth wondering if all that time off results in a sluggish start against the Houston Texans, but in the notorious words of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, that’s just not how this team rolls. For one thing, the Chiefs needed the bye as much as any team in the postseason. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes finished the season with a high ankle sprain, All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones didn’t even play against Pittsburgh because of a calf strain, and there are multiple stars on this team over the age of 30 (including tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, who’s been playing left tackle over the past month). Kansas City’s regular-season bye came in Week 6. You’re damn right they loved not playing in the Wild Card Round. Just as important to note is Reid’s record when coming off a bye. It’s 29-3. The man knows how to use that extra time to prepare his team for whatever challenges the next opponent might create. That doesn’t mean crazy things can’t happen, as the Chiefs are about to play a rematch against a Houston Texans team that can cause a lot of problems defensively. It simply means it’s a foolish idea to bet against this team not being ready to play. They have won three Super Bowls in five years for a reason.

Is James Cook the key to this team’s playoff success? 

As much as the Bills’ championship hopes rest on the shoulders of quarterback Josh Allen, Cook has carved out his own role as a critical player in this team’s dream. Cook ran for 120 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in Sunday’s 31-7 wild-card win over Denver. He helped Buffalo set a physical tone early in this contest, one that led to the Bills possessing the football for more than 41 minutes. His ability to gain yardage behind a dominant offensive line allowed Buffalo to wear down a disruptive Broncos defense and set up Allen to succeed with play-action passing later in the contest. It was an impressive strategy deployed by Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady because it required Allen to patiently do less in the first half while the game plan worked in his team’s favor. This is a scary element that the Bills can lean into the coming weeks. It speaks to the trust this team has in its run game and Cook, who ran for 1,009 yards and scored 18 total touchdowns this season. Combine his versatile skill set with backups Ty Johnson and Ray Davis (who left Sunday’s game with a concussion), and you can see the Bills having a more favorable matchup with the Ravens in the Divisional Round than what happened in their first meeting. Baltimore won that Week 4 game, 35-10, largely because it controlled the line of scrimmage and ran for 271 yards. The Bills will need to be the more physical team to win this time around, especially to ease the pressure on their own defense. Sunday’s win over Denver proved they can do that.

Can Todd Monken keep this up?

It would be easy to say the Ravens’ 28-14 wild-card win was about the brilliance of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and 299 rushing yards. The truth is this blowout was about Baltimore’s offensive coordinator and what this unit can do when Monken is truly in his bag. The Ravens forgot who they were in last year’s AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs, when the best rushing team in the league gave its running backs all of six carries. Monken wasn’t playing this time around. He kept pounding the rock with Henry, who finished with 186 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. Monken also made a point of using Jackson’s legs as well, as the quarterback hurt Pittsburgh with designed runs and pass plays that moved Jackson out of the pocket frequently. This wasn’t some pushover the Ravens plowed through on the ground. It was a Steelers team that prides itself on bullying opponents and ranked sixth in the league in stopping the run. This is why the Ravens had to be thrilled by the way this game played out. Monken thought he could beat Kansas City last year with Jackson throwing from the pocket and that strategy blew up in Baltimore’s face. This time around, the Ravens know exactly who they are as they move into a rematch with Buffalo in the Divisional Round. That’s a beautiful place to be for them and a decidedly tough spot for the Bills.

Can that defense carry this team deep into the postseason?

Houston’s 32-12 wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers provided two key takeaways. The first is that this team had too much pride to limp into the postseason and then get eliminated in its own stadium in the first round. The other is that the Houston defense can still be a problem. The Texans sacked Justin Herbert four times and intercepted him four times, with safety Eric Murray returning one of those picks for a touchdown. The Chargers also only gained 50 yards on the ground, averaging 2.8 yards per carry. This felt like it would be a game where Los Angeles imposed its will on a Texans team that was handled by the Chiefs and the Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17. Instead, Houston dominated the line of scrimmage and, more importantly, held the Chargers to just two field goals in the first quarter when Los Angeles moved deep into Texans territory. That Houston defense essentially kept this team alive until quarterback C.J. Stroud could find some rhythm with the offense. That will have to be the same formula for this team to succeed moving forward. This is a unit that can harass opposing passers and take the ball away (the Texans ranked fourth in the league with 49 sacks and 29 turnovers). It will have to duplicate what we saw on Saturday to keep advancing. That defense only sacked Patrick Mahomes once in the first meeting with Kansas City and didn’t force one takeaway. That won’t be enough for a second straight upset to occur.

Are all those injuries going to eventually become an issue?

We’ve heard nonstop discussion about Detroit’s long list of injured players. You know what’s weird? Somehow this team won 15 games with all those problems popping up throughout the course of the season, including a 31-9 season-ending victory over Minnesota that cemented the top seed in the NFC. It’s true that the Lions have lost some valuable performers, most notably defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (broken leg), linebacker Derrick Barnes (knee) and cornerback Carlton Davis III (broken jaw). It’s also important to note that the Lions will have some of those players back during the postseason. Running back David Montgomery is one of them, as he’s expected to return from a knee injury in time for the Divisional Round and team up once again Jahmyr Gibbs to form the league’s best backfield duo. Linebacker Alex Anzalone already has made his way back to the field. He played a huge role in the Lions defense shutting down quarterback Sam Darnold and the Vikings’ prolific offense in that Week 18 win. Detroit also received some positive news about players who were hurt in that Minnesota win, as cornerback Terrion Arnold (foot) and guard Kevin Zeitler (hamstring) have a chance to play in the Divisional Round. This doesn’t mean the Lions don’t have things to worry about as they prepare to meet the Washington Commanders on Saturday. It’s just as important to mention this team has found ways to overcome its problems all year. They know that offense needs to be electric, but their beat-up defense delivered against Minnesota in a way that left a lasting impression.

Is their passing game going to be a concern in the next round?

It’s not surprising that Philadelphia struggled to throw the football in their 22-10 wild-card win over Green Bay. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was returning from a concussion sustained in a Week 16 loss to Washington, and wide receiver A.J. Brown was nursing a knee injury that cost him a couple days of practice. Throw in a Packers defense that tied for third in the NFL with 17 interceptions and you can see why Hurts only finished with 131 passing yards. The Eagles relied on running back Saquon Barkley (119 rushing yards) and a suffocating defense (which forced four turnovers) to do the bulk of the damage against a Green Bay team that sustained an assortment of injuries on Sunday. But what happens when a healthier opponent shows up with a more explosive offense? As talented as the Eagles are – and this is still a team that has won 13 of its last 14 games – they need to be more dynamic with their passing attack as they move deeper into the postseason. That’s especially true if they end up facing a team like Minnesota (which plays the Rams on Monday night) in the Divisional Round, as the Vikings have a prolific offense and the type of stifling defense that could shut down Barkley. There’s likely going to be a game on the horizon where the defense doesn’t deliver (as was the case in that Washington loss after Hurts went down). Hurts can’t afford to be as rusty as he was in the early portions of that Green Bay win.

Can the defense deliver for a second straight week?

As much as people are going to rave about rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels after his team’s win in Tampa Bay, there should be just as many flowers passed out for the Commanders’ defense. Washington has been middling on that side of the ball all year and downright lousy when it came to stopping the run (ranking 30th in the league in that category). That wasn’t the case against the Buccaneers on Sunday. A Tampa Bay team that had been one of the best in the league at running, passing and scoring could only manage 284 total yards against Washington. Hell, the Bucs only possessed the football for just over 24 minutes. This is a huge deal for the Commanders because they know Daniels can create magic for them on offense, even in a place as hostile as Detroit’s Ford Field next week. What is more in question is how that defense will do against a Lions team that led the league in scoring and loves to pound the football behind an imposing offensive line. The Commanders passed their first major test of the postseason with that win in Tampa. Their biggest challenge comes next week in Detroit, and they seem far more prepared to face it after Wild Card Weekend.

Should we be surprised that a Baker Mayfield turnover doomed the Buccaneers?

The answer to this one is easy: No. Mayfield did a ton of great things for Tampa Bay this season, as he tied for second in the league with 41 touchdown passes while throwing for 4,500 yards. He also tied for the league-high with 16 interceptions and committed 17 total turnovers. This was the issue that always had the potential to haunt the Buccaneers in the playoffs, where possessions matter more, and mistakes become far more debilitating. The Bucs committed one turnover against Washington, but it was devastating: Mayfield fumbled while faking a handoff to wide receiver Jalen McMillan and Commanders linebacker Bobby Wagner recovered the loose football on the Tampa Bay 13-yard line with 11:56 left in the game. The Commanders trailed 17-13 at that moment. They scored a go-ahead touchdown two minutes later – on a 5-yard throw from Daniels to Terry McLaurin on fourth down – and that momentum shift set the stage for Washington’s eventual win. This was the kind of game that was indicative of Tampa Bay all season. It had impressive moments, and it had confounding ones, which is why it was so hard to know which team would show up in the postseason. There’s a lot to like about what Mayfield brings to the squad, both because of his brashness and his playmaking. However, turnovers were a problem that never went away for him this year. And he produced his biggest one at the worst possible time.

Did the Chargers’ lack of offensive weapons catch up to them?

Quarterback Justin Herbert is going to take his fair share of blame for what happened in his team’s 32-12 wild-card loss to Houston. He played horribly – throwing four interceptions and completing just 14 of 32 pass attempts – and this is the second time his team has failed to win a playoff game with him under center. However, the reality is this defeat can’t all be thrust onto Herbert’s shoulders. Tight end Will Dissly dropped two huge passes, one deep in Texans territory and another that resulted in an interception by Houston cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. The Chargers’ normally reliable offensive line couldn’t push the Texans around in the run game and couldn’t keep consistent pressure off Herbert. Los Angeles also came into this game without wide receiver Josh Palmer, who was sidelined with a foot injury. Yes, Herbert throwing more interceptions in this game than he had all season was a big story. The same is true of his receivers’ inability to get open against sticky coverage and the lack of an effective running game. We all knew the Chargers were operating without exceptional talent at the skill positions all season, as running back J.K. Dobbins and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey (who had nine receptions for 197 yards and an 86-yard touchdown Saturday) were the most dangerous options on the roster. This team will improve even more when it adds another difference-maker at receiver and a true threat at tight end. Those should be two of the biggest items on the offseason checklist of head coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz.

Does Mike Tomlin’s regular-season success really matter if his teams keep flopping in the postseason?

It’s time to stop praising Tomlin for never suffering through a losing season in his 18-year run as Pittsburgh’s head coach and start wondering when this team will ever be a real championship contender again. The Steelers haven’t reached the Divisional Round of the playoffs since 2017. Including Saturday’s 28-14 wild-card loss to Baltimore, they have been embarrassed in each of their last four playoff defeats, losing by scores of 31-17 (Buffalo last season), 42-21 (Kansas City in 2022) and 48-37 (Cleveland in 2021). Those results tell us Tomlin may have a knack for keeping his teams above water in the regular season, but they too often drown when the games matter most. It’s apparent the Steelers still haven’t found a strong solution at quarterback, as Russell Wilson’s play declined precipitously in the final month of the season and Justin Fields hasn’t shown enough to be a long-term solution. The defense – as proven by those playoff losses – simply isn’t as dominant as it used to be, either. Look nobody is saying Tomlin needs to go in this space. He’s one of the best coaches of his generation. However, the Steelers aren’t on the same level as the elites of the AFC (Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo), and the future isn’t nearly as bright in Pittsburgh as it is in other places around the conference (Los Angeles, Denver, Houston and Cincinnati). That might not be all on Tomlin – the personnel does need to improve – but something has to change.

Is Jordan Love really on his way to being an elite quarterback?

Like Justin Herbert, Love is going to take more criticism for this playoff loss than he likely deserves. He lost Pro Bowl left guard Elgton Jenkins to a shoulder injury in the first half and watched as wide receivers Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs were knocked out of the game as well (and the Packers already didn’t have their best deep threat, wide receiver Christian Watson, after he sustained a torn ACL in a season-ending loss to Chicago). When you consider all that, Love’s three interceptions and Green Bay’s low point total make a lot more sense. The problem here is the bigger picture. The Packers went 0-6 against the Lions, Vikings and Eagles this season, and Love was outplayed by the opposing quarterback in each one of those defeats. The Packers also have lost 12 of the 13 games Love has started when the team has fallen behind by at least 10 points. Again, all these losses can’t be pinned solely on Love. But it’s also fair to say he’s not capable of making up for his team’s shortcomings when things go sideways. After all, this was a season when the Packers harbored high expectations and for legitimate reasons. Maybe timing simply didn’t work in their favor, as the Lions, Vikings and Eagles all enjoyed stellar years. Maybe it’s just a matter of a young team requiring another year to mature with more talent added to the mix next season. One thing that also must be considered is the need for Love to keep developing into the type of player the Packers believe he can be. He’s had some strong moments in his career already. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t deliver enough in the most critical junctures of this season.

Did Denver’s defense get exposed?

That’s a harsh way to put, it but the result of Denver’s 31-7 loss to Buffalo shouldn’t have been that surprising. As dominant as Denver’s defense has been all season – it was first in the league with 63 sacks and third in points allowed at 18.3 per game – it didn’t always play its best against top quarterbacks and explosive offenses. The Ravens scored 41 points against the Broncos. The Chargers hung 34 on them in Week 16 win, and the Bengals hit them for 30 a week later in a loss that could’ve clinched a playoff spot for Denver. Did people really think the Bills, a team that finished second in the league in scoring, weren’t going to do some damage of their own in this contest? This isn’t an attempt to minimize all the good work that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and his unit accomplished this season. That defense is young and talented and certain to be problematic in the coming years. It’s just that cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss can only cover so many receivers. It’s also harder for edge rushers like Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper to dominate when they’re facing an offensive line that only allowed 14 sacks all season. Like the Chargers, the Broncos are trending in the right direction. The lesson they learned is that it’s easier for the defense to take over games when the offense is having more success. You want to see the biggest problem the Broncos had on Sunday? They only the ball for a little over 18 minutes.