Year 1 of the 12-team College Football Playoff is almost complete. Notre Dame will face Ohio State on Jan. 20 in the CFP National Championship with the winner earning bragging rights as the first team to run the table in the newly expanded playoff format.
The bracket began with 12 teams last month, with a handful not being popular preseason choices to reach the CFP. Arizona State completed one of the biggest turnarounds in college football history. The Sun Devils went from being picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason media poll to winning the conference and earning an automatic bid to the CFP.
Indiana emerged as a Cinderella team under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. The program won 11 games for the first time in program history before being eliminated by Notre Dame in the first round. Indiana and Arizona State joined SMU, Penn State, Tennessee and Boise State as first-time participants in the CFP.
So, who could be the next Arizona State or Indiana? Looking ahead to the 2025 season, here are five teams that could emerge as dark horses to reach the CFP — one per each Power Four conference, plus a trendy Group of Five pick.
Big Ten CFP dark horse
Illinois
I’ll take the homer route here and ask, why not Illinois? It’s a team coming off a 10-3 season where two of its losses were to playoff teams. It has its starting quarterback in Luke Altmyer, and its entire offensive line returning. It has a manageable schedule. I know it sounds crazy to say this about Illinois — it certainly does to me — but consecutive 10-win seasons aren’t likely, but they’re possible. — Tom Fornelli
More Illinois coverage: Projected 2025 depth chart, including replacements for star WRs
SEC CFP dark horse
Oklahoma
I hate to label a program that’s reached the CFP multiple times in the previous format a “dark horse,” but after going 6-7 in 2024, Oklahoma’s three-year record coach Brent Venables is 22-17. The Sooners have mostly fallen out of the SEC spotlight, but with 2025 as a must-win season for Venables & Co., they went out and landed one of the best transfer quarterbacks in the cycle, Washington State’s John Mateer.
OU’s defense will remain strong as normal under Venables and I believe Mateer plays himself into the Heisman Trophy mix on a national stage with the familiar Ben Arbuckle, who was his OC at Wazzu, calling the shots now. It’s a recipe for serious contention. — Cameron Salerno
More Oklahoma Sooners coverage: Latest rumblings on coaching staff, including DC hole
Big 12 CFP dark horse
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are going to enter 2025 as the favorite in the Big 12. In my opinion, there should be no question about that following a transfer portal binge that has them ranked second nationally in the 247Sports transfer class rankings.
Texas Tech already returned a fourth-year starter at QB (Behren Morton), three o-line starters and a pair of impact receivers. Throw in all of the transfer adds, a new defensive coordinator (Shiel Wood) and several notable reinforcements on offense — not to mention high school development wins that are coming up via top 30 classes in 2023 and 2024 — and the Red Raiders will be, at least on paper, the most talented team in the Big 12. The schedule is very approachable, too, given the Red Raiders don’t face a Power Four opponent in the non-conference portion of the schedule. — Chris Hummer
More Texas Tech coverage: How Red Raiders will replace all-time RB Tahj Brooks
ACC CFP dark horse
Georgia Tech
The return of both Haynes King and Aaron Philo give Georgia Tech one of the better quarterback situations in the ACC, and given the way Brent Key has developed and prepared this team for its biggest games it’s hard to think there isn’t another strong showing ahead in 2025. Both players provide the kind of athleticism that makes Georgia Tech’s offense hum and you get the combination of King’s experience with a player in Philo who flashed during his true freshman season. The Yellow Jackets finished in a tie for 4th place in the ACC standings this year, and flexed their muscles late in the year with the win against Miami and near-upset of Georgia in eight overtimes. They lost some notable talent to the portal, for sure, but I like Georgia Tech to be a sleeper that can challenge Clemson, Miami and others in the ACC. — Chip Patterson
More Georgia Tech coverage: How new portal additions fit in
Group of Five CFP dark horse
UNLV
I’m still a believer in Dan Mullen. And given the likelihood of Boise State and Tulane taking small steps back after heavy personnel losses, give me UNLV as the Group of Five champion. Virginia transfer quarterback Anthony Colandrea is an ideal fit for Mullen’s system, and the addition of Michigan QB transfer Alex Orji is intriguing, too, and peeking at the Runnin’ Rebels’ schedule, I think winning the Mountain West is there for the taking. — Brad Crawford
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