Texas A&M comes into Kentucky’s house in a Top 15 showdown as two successful offenses come against each other in what will be a high-scoring match. The Aggies will tap into their strengths as the Wildcats will look for revenge over their SEC foe.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Pictured: Kentucky Wildcats guard Lamont Butler (1) smiles during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals.
Two SEC foes meet in a Top 15 showdown as the Texas A&M Aggies travel to Lexington to face the Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena on Tuesday night.
The Aggies suffered their first conference loss against Alabama this weekend, and are trying to win in Lexington for the first time as an SEC school. The Wildcats are coming off an impressive road win against Mississippi State, and look to get revenge after losing two straight to the Aggies as we preview the matchup in my Texas A&M vs. Kentucky predictions.
This should be a highly entertaining contest, and my college basketball picks explains why points will be aplenty in this ranked clash.
Texas A&M vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Over 158.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While Texas A&M will again be without point guard Wade Taylor IV, the Aggies have found a way to score points without him. They put up 80 points on Oklahoma in a two-point road win, and scored 88 in a shootout loss against Alabama at the weekend.
That’s not to say things have gone great offensively from the start. The Aggies trailed by at least 15 points in each of those games, but found a way to storm back. A big reason for that has been their physical style of play, which has them getting to the free throw line at the second-highest rate in the SEC during conference play.
And being physical with Kentucky may be their best means of attack. The Wildcats rank dead last in SEC play in both free throw rate defense and adjusted defensive efficiency. They also rank second-worst in eFG% defense, and third-worst in turnover rate forced.
A big reason for that has been their interior defense. Over their last five games in total, the Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot nearly 63% from inside the arc—more than 11 percentage points above the national average.
They’ve also struggled to control the defensive glass against physical teams. That presents a problem, given the Aggies lead the nation in offensive rebound rate.
That said, nobody’s been better offensively than the Wildcats in conference play so far. Kentucky ranks first in adjusted efficiency, eFG%, and 3-pt%. And their guards shoot much better at home this season, with the likes of Koby Brea putting up vastly superior splits at Rupp Arena versus on the road.
The Aggies have done a great job forcing turnovers against SEC opponents, ranking second in turnover rate defense. But when those turnovers don’t come, they struggle. Texas A&M ranks 347th nationally in assists per opponent field goal made, and 182nd in assists allowed per game.
Kentucky is one of the best in the nation at taking care of the basketball. Not only do they rank 51st in assists per basket, they’re seventh nationally with almost 19 dimes per game. That has helped negate empty possessions leading to a strong point per possession metric.
And with a total of 158.5 for this game, I’m very bullish on the Over. That’s because these teams have no problem playing at a high pace.
The Wildcats have the second-highest adjusted tempo in conference play, with the Aggies just behind in fifth place. And as we saw in Kentucky’s game with Florida and Texas A&M’s game against Alabama, there are points to be had when these teams get out and run.
Kentucky has allowed 82+ points to all three conference foes, while the Aggies have scored 80+ in all three of their SEC contests. Kentucky will score points from outside the arc and on the fast break, while the Aggies will find extra points at the line and from second-chance opportunities.
Take the Over to cash for the eighth time in the last nine meetings between these schools.
Texas A&M vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Over 158.5
Zhuric Phelps Over 5.5 rebounds
Lamont Butler Over 5.5 assists
Zhuric Phelps has been a beast since Taylor’s injury. His playing time has jumped significantly, and he’s responded by scoring 58 points in two games. He’s a dynamic guard who can attack the rim off the dribble and get to the free throw line.
But he’s also averaging 7.8 rebounds in his last four games, and has three offensive boards in both of his last two games. The rate Kentucky shoots from outside lends itself to more long rebound opportunities, and those combined factors make him very likely to go Over on his rebounding total.
When the Wildcats are able to play an up-tempo game, they tend to score in bunches. And it’s usually Lamont Butler making things happen. He dished out eight assists in the wins over Mississippi State and Florida, and had six in high-scoring outings against Louisville and Georgia State.
Texas A&M is allowing the highest assist rate in conference play at 71.4%, and Butler’s posted a 30% assist rate in conference play. Look for him to easily clear his 5.5 assist total for this one.
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Texas A&M vs Kentucky odds
Texas A&M vs Kentucky live odds
Texas A&M vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Texas A&M +6 | Kentucky -6
- Moneyline: Texas A&M +220 | Kentucky -270
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas A&M vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Kentucky
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-14-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Texas A&M vs Kentucky key injuries
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