It’s been a rough go both on and off of the field for the Toronto Blue Jays over the last calendar year or so. As recently as 2023, they appeared to be entrenched as legitimate contenders, possessing a young, powerful lineup and a deep, durable starting rotation. There were already some warning signs in place that things might be turning for the worse, as I covered here not all that long ago. Long story short, their tendency to swap out powerful bats for slap hitters with defense-first profiles hasn’t worked out for them.
But their front office has clearly been trying to make the big move, to again make them relevant in the highly competitive American League East. It all began during the courtship of Shohei Ohtani last offseason. There was actually a moment in time where it was believed that Ohtani was on a plane to Toronto to sign with the club. Obviously, it didn’t quite play out that way, and less than a year later Ohtani had earned an MVP award and World Series ring as a Dodger.
Well, one offseason later and the Jays were right back in there swinging at the very top of the free agent market. At various points in time they were considered frontrunners to sign two of the very best pitchers on the market, Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes. Again, it didn’t work out for them, as the former signed with the Giants and the latter with the Diamondbacks.
And here we are, with spring training not all that far away, and the only material move made by the club has been a trade for Guardians’ 2B Andres Gimenez and his hefty contract, which has major albatross potential.
But just when the most loyal Jays’ fan might get dejected enough to consider throwing in the towel, they get sucked back in again. Japanese free agent pitching phenom Roki Sasaki, 23, has narrowed his field of potential employers to three – the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and yes, the Toronto Blue Jays.
For quite a while now, baseball insiders have been expecting him to go to one of the first two destinations. Heck, I wrote this article just two days ago and that was my assumption. So what gives? Is this just another example of false Blue Jays hope, or do they really have a shot? And just how high are the stakes?
At this stage. I have no reason to believe that the Jays are merely a stalking horse in this race. Toronto is one of only three cities that Sasaki has deigned to visit. Their candidacy is real. And there are circumstances that could put them over the top.
Why not the Dodgers? They need Sasaki less than the other two contenders, but they’ll take him. And the existence of Ohtani might actually work against them in their pursuit. Sasaki will always be the second fiddle Japanese player in L.A..
Why not the Padres? Well, they also have a Japanese legend in their clubhouse in Yu Darvish, which again might not turn out to be an advantage as Sasaki looks to make his new home his own. They are also in the midst of a potentially ugly internal power struggle following the death of owner Peter Seidler. They have yet to make a major move this offseason and have numerous holes to fill.
Toronto? With the trade of Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros at last season’s trading deadline, they’re in a sweet spot – they have experience in accomodating the needs of a Japanese star pitcher, but don’t have one in place presently. It’s been rumored that Sasaki’s low-key personality might be better suited to a relatively low-pressure environment. Now Toronto is a world class city, a major metropolis and then some, but it just might fill the bill here.
A step back here to revisit the uniqueness of Sasaki’s free agency – he is signing as a minor league international free agent. He would not have been able to leave Japan until age 25 to sign a major league deal. Therefore, his signing bonus is limited to the size of a club’s international signing pool, which can range from $5.1462 to $7.5555 million, a fraction of what his talents would command on the open market. He’s betting on himself, and values player development and winning as much as pure dollars. Good for him.
Right now, his three suitors have unofficially committed their 2024 international signing pools to other players, who can offically sign contracts – today, conveniently. None of these clubs will officially sign any international free agents until Sasaki makes up his mind. That means they are risking the loss of those unofficially committed prospects to other clubs. In fact, Dodger uncommitted prospect Darell Morell has already jumped ship and signed with the Pirates for $1.8 million, reportedly over twice as much as the Dodgers had offered.
Sasaki’s camp has seemingly been very cognizant of the bind his suitors are in, and has promptly let clubs know when they have been eliminated from the running. But there is real risk to the two “losers” among the final group. Not only do they lose Sasaki – who is likely to provide massive value over contract in his first few MLB seasons, barring injury – they could also lose their other international prospects from this signing period.
A battle-worn Jays’ fan couldn’t blamed for simply waiting for the inevitable at this point. It wouldn’t be the first time they’ve been left at the altar. But maybe, just maybe, they’ll be the club that catches a break this time. And what a big break it would be – there’s actually a very plausible reality in which Sasaki turns out to be a more advantageous signing than Ohtani when all facets are considered.
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