For the second time in four conference games, Liberty gave up a second-half lead after having control for much of the contest. The Flames led Louisiana Tech by as much as nine before the Bulldogs went on a 14-4 run in the second half to pull ahead and eventually pick up a 79-74 victory.
Liberty fell to 14-3 overall and 2-2 in Conference USA play. It’ll look to bounce back tonight in a home conference contest against UTEP. The Miners (12-4, 2-1) enter this game off an 85-57 drubbing at the hands of New Mexico State that was played at the Don Haskins Center.
UTEP won two of the three meetings between these programs last year, including a 66-57 win in the quarterfinals of the CUSA tournament. As they were in those two meetings, the Miners are an underdog in tonight’s matchup.
Can they pull off another upset over the Flames?
UTEP at Liberty Betting Odds
Liberty is a 9.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against UTEP while the Over/Under is at 134.5.
The Moneyline for Liberty is at -410 and at +315 for UTEP.
UTEP at Liberty On TV
The matchup between UTEP and Liberty will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
UTEP at Liberty Prediction
I predict UTEP to cover the 9.5-point spread. I also predict this game will go under 134.5 points.
These are the two best-scoring defenses in CUSA, with the Flames allowing 61 points per game and the Miners allowing 67.1 points per game.
Not only that, but Liberty’s defense ranks 46th in the country in defensive efficiency (98.1), according to KenPom. The Flames are 32nd in defensive effective field-goal percentage (46.2%) and 19th in 3-point percentage (28.8).
Liberty tries to play slow and get quality looks. Its adjusted tempo is 64.7, which ranks 324th, and its average possession lasts nearly 20 seconds.
One thing to consider is that UTEP forces turnovers on 25.1% of its opponents’ possessions, which ranks first in the nation. Because of this, the Miners might be able to get out and run, forcing the Flames to play much faster than they would like to and disrupting their tempo. I don’t think it’ll be enough for this game to go over, though.
The Miners’ defense ranks 123rd in defensive efficiency (103.8), so I anticipate them to force Liberty into some difficult shots.
Something that I don’t like about backing the Miners, though, is that they’re the worst rebounding team in CUSA. They allow way too many offensive rebounds — on 36.3% of opponents possessions — and Liberty’s bigs Owen Aquino (6.9) and Zach Cleveland (6.8) rank sixth and seventh in the league in rebounding.
I do, however, think the Miners will be hungry after getting embarrassed by NMSU and come out with a lot of energy. This could help offset their lack of production on the boards. They were outrebounded by 19 against the Aggies. I think that’s somewhat of an effort thing and I don’t think the Miners typically lack in that area.
Expect UTEP to force enough turnovers to hang around in this one and to get some 3-pointers to fall, where they shoot 38%.
Corey Camper Jr. will need to be a ball hound like he has been this season to give UTEP a spark. Camper leads the league with 2.4 steals per game.
It’s hard for me to trust Liberty as I feel like they’ve let teams hang around when they shouldn’t be. And as I mentioned above, I anticipate the Miners to be eager to put last week’s loss behind them with a more positive outing. This has the feel of a gritty conference matchup.
UTEP is 3-1 against the spread this season as an underdog.
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