When the Tigers took Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in 2020, Baseball America described him as “the safest pick at the top of the draft” and a potential “middle-of-the-order force,” à la Pete Alonso. And keep in mind, they weren’t talking about present-day Alonso, who is struggling to find a market in free agency, but rather a younger version who had just set the MLB rookie record with 53 home runs in his debut campaign.
Torkelson tore up the minor leagues in 2021, rising from High-A to Triple-A and mashing at every level. Ahead of his rookie season in 2022, he was a consensus top-10 prospect in the game. Most sources, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic’s Keith Law placed him in the top five. The only players who ranked ahead of him on every one of those lists were Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Suffice it to say, the future was bright for the young first baseman.
Yet, the bright lights of the big leagues proved too much for a 22-year-old Torkelson. He didn’t just fail to reach his sky-high ceiling. Rather, his supposedly sturdy floor completely collapsed. In 110 games, the righty batter barely managed a .200 average and a .600 OPS. He hit just eight home runs, and his .117 isolated power was well below average, especially for a first baseman. While his expected stats were slightly more promising, a 34th-percentile xwOBA could hardly assuage the very real concerns about his lifeless bat. What’s more, a mid-season demotion back to Triple-A did little to help. He was surprisingly ineffective in the minors, too, posting a .738 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 35 games.
Torkelson got off to a similarly poor start in 2023, but he turned things around late in the year. Through the end of July, he had a .707 OPS and 94 wRC+, with 15 home runs in 104 games. Those were better numbers than he posted in 2022 but still disappointing for an MLB first baseman and well below expectations. Then, from August 1 through the end of the season, Torkelson finally seemed to tap into his full potential. He crushed 11 doubles and 16 home runs in 55 games, good for a .282 ISO. His .855 OPS and 133 wRC+ were similarly impressive, and his .364 xwOBA was right in line with his .362 wOBA. The sample size was small, but considering everything Torkelson had done in college and the minors to become a top-10 prospect, it was hard not to think the powerful slugger was finally becoming everything the Tigers hoped he could be.
Then came 2024. Over the first two months of this past season, Torkelson looked like his rookie self again, slashing .201/.266/.330 with a 71 wRC+. That led to another minor league demotion, and things didn’t look much better at Triple-A. The man who terrorized minor league pitchers in 2021 was nowhere to be seen, and he put up a .799 OPS and 108 wRC+ in 58 games. Torkelson looked better upon his return to the Tigers in August, but his late-season performance wasn’t as convincing as it was in 2023. His 125 wRC+ was powered by a high BABIP and a wOBA more than 20 points above his xwOBA. While his 11.3% walk rate was a promising sign, his 32.5% strikeout rate suggested he was still often overmatched against big league pitching. That certainly seemed to be the case in the playoffs, when he went just 4-for-21 with an 82 wRC+ in seven postseason games.
Three seasons into his major league career, Torkelson’s top prospect shine has worn off. In close to 1,500 plate appearances, he has failed to establish himself as an above-average hitter, let alone an everyday first baseman. The Tigers could afford to let him play through his issues during their rebuild, but now that they have eyes on contention, it will be harder to justify giving regular reps to such a mediocre bat. To that point, they seem to have already replaced him on the roster. After signing Gleyber Torres to play second base, Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that Colt Keith will be the team’s primary first baseman in 2025. With Keith at first base and Kerry Carpenter at DH, it’s hard to see how Torkelson fits in. Torkelson was once a more promising prospect than either of them, but Carpenter has mashed at the major league level (career 136 wRC+), and the Tigers showed their faith in Keith with a six-year, $28.6425MM extension before he’d even made his MLB debut. Without a guaranteed contract or much big league success, Torkelson is on the outside looking in.
If Torkelson plays well this spring, the Tigers could still find a way to get him in the lineup. To that point, Harris says he told Torkelson, “If you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.” At the very least, the righty batter could be the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Carpenter. Last year, manager A.J. Hinch tried to shield Carpenter from southpaws, against whom he has a career 69 wRC+. Meanwhile, Torkelson has a 111 wRC+ in 357 career PA against opposite-handed pitching. Keith is a left-handed hitter, too, so Torkelson could also spell him at first base with a tough lefty on the bump. If top prospect Jace Jung struggles (and the Tigers don’t add another third baseman in free agency), the team could be forced to move either Keith or Torres over to third, freeing up playing time for Torkelson at first base. Finally, Detroit could also consider giving Carpenter more run in the outfield if Torkelson is hitting well enough to deserve the reps at DH.
Of course, that all relies on Torkelson doing enough to convince the Tigers to give him another serious chance. An alternative route, and perhaps the best possible outcome for everyone involved, would be trading Torkelson to a team that can offer him a more regular role. Not only might a change of scenery do him some good, but consistent playing time at a consistent position can only help as he tries to figure things out at the plate. One can understand why Detroit might be hesitant to sell low on a former first-overall pick. On the other hand, it will be hard for him to increase his trade value when he isn’t playing every day. If the Tigers trade him now, at least they could guarantee some sort of return. A true rebuilding club like the Marlins could offer Torkelson the most playing time, but other teams that could be looking for an inexpensive right-handed first base/DH bat include the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Twins. Torkelson still has an option, so sending him back down to Triple-A Toledo is another possibility.
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