Wednesday’s college basketball slate features a handful of intriguing games, particularly in the SEC.
The schedule for Wednesday night includes No. 1 Auburn, a top-25 matchup between Alabama and Mississippi State and a game between Texas and Ole Miss that will carry NCAA Tournament implications.
Best DFS picks for Wednesday, Jan. 29
Below are 4 picks for the Tuesday night slate that can be found on Underdog Fantasy. If you’re new to Underdog, make sure to use our exclusive Underdog Fantasy promo SDS to earn up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you sign up.
Auburn guard Tahaad Pettiford higher than 12.5 points
Tahaad Pettiford has gone a bit under-the-radar nationally this season considering the strength of this freshman class, but he’s having an outstanding season for the Tigers. Pettiford is averaging a very-efficient 11.8 points per game and has been even better than that in SEC play. He’s not asked to do much besides score at this stage in his career, but he’s very good at that. He’s scored 13 points or more in each of his last 2 SEC road games (and also did it away from home earlier this season against Purdue, Duke, Iowa State and Houston).
Defensively, LSU has not guarded the perimeter very well in recent weeks. The Tigers are allowing teams to shoot 37% from 3-point range in conference play, which ranks 14th in the SEC. In recent games, LSU has allowed players like Alabama’s Aden Holloway and Arkansas’ Boogie Fland to put together efficient scoring games from beyond the arc. Pettiford is also pretty good at getting to the foul line as he’s averaging 3.8 attempts during SEC play.
Mississippi State guard Josh Hubbard lower than 17.5 points
Josh Hubbard is averaging 14 points per game in conference play. One of the nation’s most prolific 3-point shooters, Hubbard is in the midst of a significant slump. Against SEC competition this season, he’s hitting under 30% of his 3-point tries on a volume of 8.7 attempts per game. Given his shooting ability, that should regress back to the mean a little bit at some point. But with his 5-foot-10 frame, it’s also not too surprising to see Hubbard struggling more with the types of athletes he sees in SEC play.
Alabama, who typically boasts a long and aggressive defense, has done well to stop Hubbard in each of its 2 previous meetings against the sophomore guard. Last season, the Tide held Hubbard to 10.5 points per game and 2-of-12 from beyond the arc across 2 meetings. On the season, Alabama is holding its opponents to under 30% from long range. The Crimson Tide also don’t foul very often, which is how Hubbard typically gets his points if he’s not having a big night from downtown.
Texas guard Tre Johnson lower than 20.5 points + assists
Tre Johnson got off to an incredible start during his freshman season but his efficiency has fallen off a cliff in SEC play. Since conference games started, Johnson is hitting just 27.3% from 3-point range and his true shooting percentage is hovering just over 50%. The opportunity has still been there for him — his usage rate hasn’t declined much — and he is capable of scoring explosions, as he showed last time out against Texas A&M with a 30-point game. But I think that’s more of an outlier performance than something that can be counted on from Johnson moving forward. That’s only the 4th time this season that he’s scored 19 or more points against a high-major opponent. In every case, it was because Johnson caught fire from 3-point range — he averaged 4 3-point makes per game on extremely-high efficiency in those contests. Johnson also isn’t much of a passer, especially considering how often he has the ball in his hands. He’s only recorded more than 2 assists in 1 SEC game so far this year.
To complicate matters further, Johnson will be playing against an Ole Miss defense that has been elite to start conference play. The Rebels have one of the better defensive ratings in the country as they’re allowing under 96 points per 100 possessions on average, per KenPom. The biggest driver for the Rebels has been their perimeter defense. Teams have shot just 30% from long range against the Rebels this season, and that number drops to 27% when you isolate conference games. Perhaps Johnson will catch fire against one of the nation’s best defenses, but it seems relatively unlikely.
Virginia guard Isaac McKneely higher than 12.5 points
Virginia will be facing a Miami team that has clearly quit — at least on the defensive side of the ball. The Canes have allowed more than 1.2 points per possession in 6 of their last 7 games. In ACC play, Miami is giving up 1.26 points per possession. The Canes rank 359th out of 364 Division I teams in effective field goal percentage defense. They’re also 361st in 3-point percentage defense.
With that in mind, Isaac McKneely has to be salivating at the thought of getting to play vs. this Miami team. He’s been the leading scorer on a Virginia team that’s surprisingly-reliant on 3-point shooting, given the Cavs’ reputation under Tony Bennett. McKneely is averaging 13.3 points per game in ACC play this season and is shooting over 40% from downtown on a volume of over 7 attempts per night. Against Boston College, the 2nd-worst defense in the ACC this season, McKneely scored 21 points and made 6-of-9 from distance. All McKneely has to do is hit his average against one of the worst power-conference defenses in recent memory in order to clear this projection.
Don’t forget to use Underdog promo code SDS when you sign up to earn up to $1,000 in bonus cash!
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
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