Nonconference slates and stretches build the foundation of NCAA Tournament resumes, but February runs make and break how a program gets seeded in March. Midway through conference play, the only thing clear about how the bracket will shake out is that every door seems slightly open.
The first year of power conferences in realignment has sent Mercury into retrograde, the Big 12 into the shadow realm, and midmajors in a position to possibly surprise and benefit from all this.
In our first iteration of this season’s bubble watch, let’s check who’s on the outside looking in, who needs a positive stretch run, and who’s shoring up their case as a tournament lock.
ACC
Locks: Notre Dame
Projected in: North Carolina State, Florida State, Duke, North Carolina, California, Georgia Tech
On the bubble: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Spotlight on: Stanford
Since losing in the Bay Area Classic, an 84-59 drubbing to Ohio State, the Cardinal have gone 3-6. Besides a blowout loss at Duke, Stanford has taken every game wire to wire, which is a blessing and a curse.
The Cardinal have dropped a 2-point loss to North Carolina, a 3-point loss to Cal and an overtime loss to Clemson. Upsetting Florida State is massive in staying afloat, but new coach Kate Paye needs to start winning for Stanford to avoid missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1987.
Can Stanford imitate Arizona’s late-season burst last season? (Something that would be ironic considering Arizona rode the wave of beating Stanford to the NCAA Tournament.) With a strong schedule allowing some leeway, and proof of concept in close games, the Cardinal have opportunities against Notre Dame and Louisville this week.
Big East
Locks: UConn
Projected in: Creighton
On the bubble: Seton Hall, Villanova, Marquette
Spotlight on: Villanova
Villanova is a blast to watch play. The Wildcats have been competitive despite returning just 35 percent of last season’s minutes. Freshman point guard Jasmine Bascoe has impressed with her confidence and moxie as a nonstop competitor.
However, Villanova is on the outside. It has significant wins over Texas A&M, St. Joseph’s and Columbia, but the Wildcats need to move up in the Big East and close strong to impress the selection committee and get off the bubble.
Villanova lost tight games to Marquette and Seton Hall (the Big East’s other bubble teams), but the Wildcats beat the Golden Eagles by double digits in the second meeting. With two matchups left against the second-best team in the league, Creighton, Villanova can claim an additional signature win. A win or two in the Big East tournament, particularly over another bubble team, could put this frisky team in the Big Dance.
Big Ten
Locks: UCLA, USC, Ohio State
Projected in: Michigan State, Maryland, Illinois, Oregon, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan
On the bubble: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota
Spotlight on: Washington
The Huskies came out hot in Big Ten play, competing close with UCLA before rattling off three straight wins, including a quality win over Illinois in Champaign. Washington is 1-5 since that winning streak, including three losses by double digits.
The travel schedule has not been kind to the Huskies, which is worth noting. But they’re in a bit of a quandary. They’re more than capable of playing into the field with a strong close to the regular season, but all but two of Washington’s final games are against tournament teams, including a third Midwest trip to Lincoln and Minneapolis this month.
Coach Tina Langley’s team is talented, but finding consistency is essential.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas State, TCU
Projected in: Baylor, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Utah
On the bubble: Colorado, Iowa State, Arizona
Spotlight on: Colorado
With so much in flux, it wasn’t extremely clear how Colorado would mesh this season with a new roster. The Buffaloes play with more focus on the wing; all but four players are 6-foot or taller. Off last season’s squad, just 31 percent of minutes and 28.8 percent of their scoring returned.
And yet, coach JR Payne has the Buffaloes looking more and more like an NCAA Tournament team.
They are a bit low in the NET, impacted by an early-season loss to Boise State, but have put themselves in the conference mix by picking up Quad 1 wins over West Virginia and Kansas State. Notably, Kansas State was without Ayoka Lee, but the Wildcats are still remarkably talented. An upcoming February stretch with games against Arizona, Iowa State and Utah will factor into Colorado’s tournament viability.
SEC
Locks: South Carolina, LSU, Texas, Kentucky
Projected in: Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Mississippi State
On the bubble: Florida, Texas A&M, Auburn
Spotlight on: Auburn
Johnnie Harris’ squad has had a tough go of it this season, with many injuries impacting the Tigers since the start of the season. Savannah Scott, who started at the five most of last year, is missing the entire season with an injury. Taliah Scott, a star transfer guard, has played just three games and none yet in SEC play. Kaitlyn Duhon, a key rotation guard, has played in just eight games.
And yet, Auburn is still in the mix. A plethora of close losses has been the story throughout the season, as the Tigers have struggled to execute offensively. But if they can keep picking up wins over the bottom of the SEC and snag one or two upsets, they have a chance to get in due to their strength of schedule.
Midmajors
Locks: None
Projected in: Richmond, Harvard, South Dakota State, Columbia, Fairfield, James Madison, Belmont, UNLV, Ball State, Montana State, Middle Tennessee, FGCU, Grand Canyon, Norfolk State, Gonzaga, UTSA, Purdue Fort Wayne, Lehigh, Southeastern Louisiana, Albany, Hawaii, North Carolina A&T, Wofford, Fairleigh Dickinson, Longwood, Lindenwood, Texas Southern
On the bubble: Princeton, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, South Florida, Murray State, Portland, Missouri State, Northern Arizona, Drake, Green Bay
Spotlight on: Ivy League
When Harvard picked up a marquee win in nonconference play by taking down Indiana (a projected tournament team) at Assembly Hall, it opened the door for the Ivy League to become a multi-bid conference. The Ivy has long been strong, but a signature win over a power conference opponent holds significant weight and allows for flexibility in a league that typically sends only an auto bid to the Big Dance.
However, as usual, the Ivy is also incredibly competitive, with Harvard, Princeton and Columbia vying for a bid. All three teams are projected in — but just because all three are capable of winning the conference. The two who don’t will be on the bubble.
Harvard has some strong wins, but its early loss to Quinnipiac could hurt. Quinnipiac is a good team, but losing by 23 points to a Quad 3 opponent is glaring. Crimson also lost to Princeton and Columbia. It doesn’t need to win the league to make the tournament, but it can’t afford to pick up many more losses outside of the conference tournament.
Harvard, Princeton and Columbia have strong resumes, but compared to the remaining power conference bubble teams, they lack opportunities to pick up Quad 1 wins. So bad losses cannot be afforded.
Princeton’s been dealt a tough hand, losing star guard Madison St. Rose early in the season and turning to a new and young starting lineup. The Tigers probably need to win the league to make the tournament, but they earned a key win over fellow bubble team Seton Hall.
Columbia is undefeated in Ivy play and owns wins over Princeton and Harvard, so it holds the cards in the conference race. The Lions picked up solid nonconference wins against FGCU and Ball State and have competitive losses to Indiana and Villanova on their resume. Snagging key wins in Ivy play has made Columbia’s strongest case.
The most damaging thing that could happen for the Ivy is to beat up on one another, with each of the three bubble teams playing each other again before the regular season ends.
The Athletic
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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