With just over a month to go in college basketball’s regular season, where do things stand in the race to lock up bids to the men’s NCAA tournament? There has been plenty of movement as of late, with potential season-changing results for teams happening nearly every night. For an updated look at who’s in, who’s out and some of the biggest risers and fallers, here’s another edition of Sports Illustrated’s Bracket Watch.
Last Four Byes:
Oklahoma Sooners
Ohio State Buckeyes
Georgia Bulldogs
Texas Longhorns
Last Four In:
San Diego State Aztecs
Nebraska Cornhuskers
BYU Cougars
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
First Four Out:
Pittsburgh Panthers
Arkansas Razorbacks
VCU Rams
UCF Knights
Next Four Out:
Xavier Musketeers
North Carolina Tar Heels
SMU Mustangs
Arizona State Sun Devils
In a week where few teams at or near the cut line did much of anything to help themselves, Nebraska surged into the field after huge wins over Illinois and Oregon, then followed it up with a road win at Washington on Wednesday. Add in a road win at Creighton, and the Cornhuskers quickly had a tournament-caliber resume. They profile as a classic bubble team that will likely be right around the cut line all the way until Selection Sunday.
Meanwhile, Arkansas also has completely changed its standing after back-to-back elite road wins at Kentucky and Texas. That wasn’t quite enough to push them into the field yet, but the Razorbacks’ hopes of going dancing are suddenly alive and well in John Calipari’s first season.
* indicates a projected automatic qualifier
No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 Southern Jaguars*/Morehead State Eagles*
No. 8 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies
No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 13 Arkansas State Red Wolves*
No. 6 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Northern Colorado Bears*
No. 7 UConn Huskies vs. No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings*
Iowa State has lost three straight. Road losses at Arizona and Kansas are more than understandable, but getting beat down at home by Kansas State is a bit more difficult to explain. The Cyclones hold onto the final spot on the No. 2 line for now, though it was a close debate between them and Texas A&M for that final spot.
At 21–2, Drake could make a compelling at-large case should the Bulldogs slip up next month at the Missouri Valley tournament. Their two losses (Murray State and at UIC) aren’t great, and their best win on paper is a neutral-court victory over Vanderbilt. But Drake is a team that could be helped by the new “wins above bubble” metric, which considers the Bulldogs to have the 40th-best resume in the sport.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 Omaha Mavericks*/American Eagles*
No. 8 Baylor Bears vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores
No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm* vs. No. 12 George Mason Patriots*
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 6 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 11 BYU Cougars/Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 Bryant Bulldogs*
No. 7 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 10 Texas Longhorns
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville Bulldogs*
Michigan State’s Big Ten schedule is much tougher in February than it was in January, and the Spartans started the month with back-to-back losses in Los Angeles to USC and UCLA. MSU’s resume didn’t take much of a hit with either of those losses, but with the gauntlet ahead, the Spartans will have to win their fair share of these top-tier matchups to remain this high on the seed list.
The best league projected to get just one bid as of now is the Atlantic 10, represented here by No. 12 seed George Mason. The league’s best at-large candidate a month ago was Dayton, but the Flyers have fallen apart with four league losses already. Their at-large case isn’t completely dead, but they’re far from the projected field. VCU is the league’s best hope as of now, though the Rams lack the quality wins to keep up with their sterling quality metrics. GMU isn’t that far from the bubble, but with two bad losses on the resume already, an at-large bid seems like an uphill battle.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Marist Red Foxes*
No. 8 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 9 Gonzaga Bulldogs
No. 5 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 12 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs/Wake Forest Demon Deacons
No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 14 Towson Tigers*
No. 7 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 2 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 15 Central Connecticut Blue Devils*
Missouri has pulled off quite the turnaround, from 0–18 in the SEC a year ago to 17–5 overall and 6–3 in league play in 2024–25. The Tigers’ strongest selling point resume-wise is their road wins: at Florida and Mississippi State already in SEC play. A top-four protected seed is within reach.
Is Gonzaga a bubble team? Middling resume metrics and a sub-.500 record vs. the top two quadrants indicate yes. For now, the Bulldogs are being lifted by elite quality-metrics that suggest the Bulldogs are closer to a top-four seed than one that could be sweating on Selection Sunday, but this team is one bad loss away from being in serious jeopardy.
No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 5 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 12 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 6 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 14 Jacksonville State Gamecocks*
No. 7 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 2 Florida Gators vs. No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles*
Perhaps the biggest mover in the entire field this week is Purdue, which ascends to the No. 1 line and claims the last top seed in the field. The margins here are tight between the Boilermakers, Tennessee and Florida, but Purdue’s 13 wins against the top two quadrants really stood out in making a final decision. This spot is far from secured, but Matt Painter’s team has chances to improve its standing further with six projected Quad 1 games in its final eight.
The sky is not falling for Kentucky despite losses in four of five games, at least from a seeding perspective. The Wildcats remain a No. 4 seed thanks to their impressive slate of elite wins, headlined by a neutral-court win over Duke in November. The bottom would have to completely fall out for this team to fall outside the top six or so seeds. The committee can also factor in the Wildcats’ injury woes, with Lamont Butler sidelined for the last three games with a shoulder injury.
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