Women’s college basketball bracket watch: How far does UConn fall after loss to Tennessee?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. 

Is there anything quite like February in college basketball? Listen, I love March. Watching conference tournaments, seeing the bracket unveiled, the NCAA Tournament starting up. You can’t go wrong. But I love the process of February.

Each game, no matter how small, can have a massive impact. A week night in Madison, Wis., can alter the course of the Big Ten. An off quarter in Tucson, Ariz., can rewrite the Big 12 season. Can your favorite SEC program get the job done on a rainy night in Columbia, Mo.?

There’s a beauty in the process as the possibilities dwindle and decline for teams. While the ending chapter is often the most remembered, that’s just a small percentage of the book that’s written, and the true appreciation in that end result for me tends to come from witnessing the entire journey.

February will bring us some special games in the least remarkable places, and I’m eager to soak in every minute. After all, that’s how the bracket is built.

Texas takes a No. 1 seed

After USC’s loss over the weekend to Iowa, Texas edges out the Trojans for the fourth spot on the No. 1 seed line.

Even before that loss, Texas could have made the case that it had a stronger resume because of its tougher schedule and two more Quad 1 wins. One of the general rules of thumb that’s become clear with the selection committee’s seeding is that it’s better to beat a bad team than to lose a game.

Considering that Texas’ two losses were to projected No. 1 seeds, and it has more quality wins than USC, it’s an easy call at the moment.

The first two seed lines still have plenty of room for movement, but with UConn’s loss to Tennessee (more on that later) as well as TCU’s loss on Wednesday (which we’ll also get into), possibilities are being pruned slowly but surely.

The SEC is well-positioned to have two top seeds. We’re going to learn even more about that potential this Sunday, however, as the Longhorns host South Carolina.

Texas was bludgeoned by the Gamecocks in Columbia by 17 points, but it’s won seven straight since then, including four Quad 1 wins after sinking Vanderbilt in Austin. Buckle up for one of the biggest games of the season.

1K 🤘#HookEm | @MaddiewitdaB_ pic.twitter.com/rqbMlYiwDB

— Texas Women’s Basketball (@TexasWBB) February 7, 2025

Kansas State gets its signature win

In a contest between the top two Big 12 teams, Kansas State picked up its marquee win of the season by defeating TCU 59-50.

From purely a basketball standpoint, I couldn’t be more impressed with Kansas State. Just a few weeks removed from losing star center Ayoka Lee to injury and getting beaten by Colorado, the Wildcats are reinventing how they play. The offense understandably has had to tilt, but the defense has embodied a pro style with a ton of length and aggression, which bothered TCU.

Serena Sundell took over against TCU and Iowa State both in the past week, attacking any number of matchups out of the post, in isolation, and scoring with efficiency.

A trip to Oklahoma State looms on Saturday, a Quad 1 game, and a matchup at West Virginia appears to be the strongest test on Kansas State’s remaining schedule.

Stacking significant wins to close the regular season will be key for seeding, but the biggest question I have is how the selection committee will view the Wildcats’ early loss to Duke.

The Blue Devils have hovered just below the No. 2 line for most of the season, playing the nation’s third-strongest schedule. Duke is 4-4 in Quad 1 games and Kansas State is 2-1, both going 7-1 in Quad 2 games. I have both on the No. 3 line, with NC State as the first team ready to jump to the No. 2 line.

However, TCU doesn’t drop after losing to Kansas State. After careful consideration, the wins over Notre Dame and NC State boosted TCU’s resume enough that I don’t believe they’d drop in the committee’s eyes given the other barriers keeping Kansas State from leaping Duke.

TCU has a relatively easy schedule for the remainder of Big 12 play, but it closes the regular season against West Virginia and Baylor. The Horned Frogs still control their own fate, but they are in a position where a loss likely will cause them to fall from the No. 2 line.

Cue “Country Roads?”

Continuing with the Big 12 — a fascinating conference from a bracket perspective — what should we make of West Virginia?

Mark Kellogg is doing an excellent job building in Morgantown. The Mountaineers are second in the country in adjusted defensive rating, per CBB Analytics, a metric that accounts for the schedule played when measuring defensive efficiency. The Mountaineers caused steals on 20.4 percent of opponents’ possessions, the highest mark in the country.

The Mountaineers are 12th in the NET, but could be a No. 6 or No. 7 seed. West Virginia has been competitive against top teams. It has blown out opponents who are clearly a few notches below and has incurred a few losses against teams on a similar level. However, exacting revenge against Oklahoma State, one of West Virginia’s four losses, is a major reason it could deserve a No. 6 seed.

Let’s take a quick look at West Virginia’s resume:

• 12th in NET
• 83rd in strength of schedule (210th in non-conference)
• 0-2 in Quad 1 games
• 2-2 in Quad 2 games
• Best win:  54-37 over Oklahoma State at home on Feb. 1
• Worst loss: 62-77 at Arizona on Jan. 25.

West Virginia often looks like a team that’s good enough to host in March Madness. But the selection committee is likely to consider these factors:

• It is the only team in the NET top 16 without a Quad 1 win

• Only three teams in the NET’s top 16 had played fewer than 10 combined Quad 1 and 2 games prior to Thursday night: TCU, LSU and West Virginia. TCU and LSU have won four Quad 1 games — significantly more than the Mountaineers.

I’ve been asked numerous times why the Mountaineers aren’t seeded higher, and this is why. Some of the same schedule questions from last season (65th in overall strength, 324th in non-conference) caused the Mountaineers to be seeded worse (No. 8) than some expected — including this writer.

On paper, the Mountaineers look like a team that could deserve a high seed, but I strongly doubt the selection committee would grant that given what we’re seeing from them so far this season.

West Virginia has an opportunity to add a quality Quad 1 win at Baylor on Tuesday, and then it takes on Kansas State and TCU later this month. There’s room for upward momentum.

Rocky top

For the first time since 2007, the Lady Vols beat Connecticut.

Tennessee has shown flashes of brilliance in coach Kim Caldwell’s inaugural season, punctuated by five losses decided by a grand total of 15 points. Every game has come down to the wire for the Lady Vols, and that was no different in a nationally televised game against Connecticut.

They are now 4-5 in Quad 1 games, working their way back into the hosting position for the opening rounds. They control their destiny as the regular season winds down. With a significant matchup against potential No. 2 seed LSU looming this weekend, Tennessee has a prime opportunity to keep improving its standing.

GO DEEPER

No. 19 Tennessee bests No. 5 UConn 80-76 in rivalry upset

But what’s the fallout for UConn? The Huskies are clearly a top-notch team, having played the fifth-ranked nonconference schedule and owning a pair of strong wins over Ole Miss and North Carolina. I don’t think losing to Tennessee causes any reason to doubt them, but it opens the door for some teams with impressive resumes, particularly LSU and TCU, to be more closely evaluated.

The result doesn’t technically shake up our No. 2 seed line much, but it has a big impact on the seed list, with UConn falling to the final No. 2 spot. UConn’s ability to play tight games against Notre Dame and USC plays a factor as well in not falling to the No. 3 seed this week.

The Huskies game at South Carolina next Sunday is their lone remaining Quad 1 game. UConn is likely a lock to host, but this loss adds a great deal of importance to the game against the Gamecocks when it comes to higher seeding opportunities.

Wolfpack are rising

A Final Four team last season, North Carolina State took on a tough schedule to start the year (13th in nonconference strength) and found itself 4-3 at the beginning of December. Replacing starting frontcourt members River Baldwin’s and Mimi Collins’ production and experience proved an understandably difficult hurdle early on.

The Wolfpack have been working back since that rough start, including two lopsided losses to the top of the SEC (South Carolina and LSU). Those double-digit defeats impacted NC State’s NET, a factor we’ve talked about in bracket watch often. Last season, NC State started 14-0 and was propelled by a massive win over UConn in the second game of the season.

The 2024 and 2025 versions of this team are inverted, with the Wolfpack rattling off a 14-1 record since their bumpy start. After beating Duke for its strongest win of the season, NC State has risen up to a No. 3 seed for its highest position of our bracket watch.

Saniya Rivers, Aziaha James and Zoe Brooks have combined for their best and most consistent stretches of basketball simultaneously in the past month. Freshman forward Tilda Trygger has found her footing. Madison Hayes finds a way to make key rebounds, defensive stops and open 3-pointers to serve as the glue that holds Wes Moore’s team together.

A meeting with Florida State this Sunday is one of the most anticipated ACC matchups of the conference slate, and another opportunity for NC State to keep proving it belongs in the upper echelon of the bracket.

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Paige Bueckers: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images)

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