Since the turn of the year, Tennessee had lost five games by a combined 15 points. Four of those losses came against top-10 teams as the Lady Vols sought their first marquee victory in the Kim Caldwell era.
They fell by one against Oklahoma, two to LSU, four at Texas and seven vs. reigning national champion South Carolina. Tennessee was clearly good enough to take down a premier program, but for one reason or another, the win never quite materialized.
But rivalries can bring the best out of a team, and that’s exactly what happened Thursday in Knoxville.
UConn and Tennessee are the winningest schools in the sport, combining for 19 national championships. But the Huskies had the upper hand in the series, winning four straight meetings since the rivalry was renewed in 2020.
That changed with Thursday’s 80-76 Tennessee win, its first against UConn since 2007. The Volunteers finally broke through while also ending UConn’s slim hopes of running the table and possibly snagging a No. 1 seed.
Instead, the Huskies have a firm ceiling on the No. 2 line while Tennessee has moved up to a No. 4 seed, grabbing one of the final projected hosting spots.
It was a good week to be a “UT” as elsewhere, the Texas Longhorns benefitted from a USC loss against Iowa, passing the Trojans for the final No. 1 seed.
That Iowa win came on Caitlin Clark’s jersey retirement day. Even as a pro, Clark is still impacting the NCAA Tournament field.
No. 1 seeds
*UCLA (22-0, 10-0 Big Ten): NET 4, SOS 27
The nation’s only undefeated team will stay on the West Coast this week, first traveling to face Oregon on Sunday before returning to California for Thursday’s highly awaited showdown with USC.
UCLA is 6-0 this season against ranked teams, winning each of the last five by at least 13 points. Cori Close’s team is also 3-0 against top-10 teams this season, marking the first three-game win streak against top-10 teams in school history.
*South Carolina (22-1, 10-0 SEC): NET 1, SOS 1
South Carolina has had a 20-point scorer just twice through 10 conference games. The most points any of Dawn Staley’s players have scored in a game this season is 23.
That sets the Gamecocks apart from other title contenders — Notre Dame, USC, UCLA and LSU each have a player averaging at least 20 points per game. But South Carolina likes it that way. Any team whose top two scorers come off the bench is a team to be feared.
*Notre Dame (20-2, 11-0 ACC): NET 5, SOS 8
There just isn’t any suspense anymore. Notre Dame’s 15th straight win came in a 96-47 romp over bubble team Stanford that saw the Irish lead 50-15 at halftime. They didn’t need to score in the final two quarters.
The ACC is projected to have eight NCAA Tournament teams this season, but is any team good enough to prevent Notre Dame from finishing conference play undefeated?
Texas (23-2, 9-1 SEC): NET 3, SOS 6
Congratulations on becoming a No. 1 seed, Texas! There’s only one problem. South Carolina is up next on the schedule, and the Longhorns could just as easily lose their spot by the end of the weekend.
During the teams’ last meeting on Jan. 12, Texas shot a paltry 27.8% from the field. Starters combined for just 22 points and the Longhorns fell 67-50. Being at home should help this time around, but how much?
No. 2 seeds
USC (20-2, 10-1 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 18
The last time USC and UCLA met was in the semifinals of the 2024 Pac-12 Tournament. USC won that game 80-70 in double-overtime behind 33 points and 10 rebounds from JuJu Watkins.
On Thursday, the Trojans will be seeking to win three straight games against UCLA for the first time since a seven-game streak from 2005-08. What had been a lopsided rivalry over the previous decade has transformed into must-watch TV of late.
LSU (24-1, 9-1 SEC): NET 9, SOS 58
With more wins than every other team in the nation, LSU’s path to a No. 1 seed has been held back by having fewer Quad-1 wins (four) than each of the teams above it.
But five of LSU’s final six games are Quad-1 opportunities, beginning with Sunday’s home tilt against Tennessee, a team the Tigers beat 89-87 on Jan. 9 thanks to Kailyn Gilbert’s game-winning layup.
*UConn (21-3, 12-0 Big East): NET 2, SOS 32
Tennessee entered its game against UConn as a team so close to pulling off the big win. That’s probably what it has felt like to be UConn over the past several years, continually being a top team but always seeming to lose in the biggest games.
There’s no need to feel bad for a team with 11 banners, but it once again seems like the Huskies may be a piece short from reaching their goals.
*Kansas State (22-2, 10-1 Big 12): NET 7, SOS 75
Wednesday’s win over TCU marked Kansas State’s biggest victory of the season. With no second meeting in the regular season, the Wildcats are now in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 regular-season title.
Unfortunately, there isn’t much room for upward mobility in a Bracketology context for a team with just two Quad-1 wins.
No. 3 seeds
Ohio State (20-2, 9-2 Big Ten): NET 15, SOS 60
Par for the course. The Buckeyes took care of business at a Washington team currently on the wrong side of the bubble but fell 65-62 at UCLA. They’ll get the other half of the two-headed Los Angeles monster Saturday at USC. While a signature win would be awfully nice, Ohio State should be feeling pretty good with the strength of its overall resume.
TCU (21-3, 9-2 Big 12): NET 10, SOS 42
After as tough a three-week stretch as you can get in Big 12 play, TCU will only play one projected NCAA Tournament team over the rest of February. That’ll be at home against West Virginia on the 23rd, although a few teams could pose a sneaky threat between now and then.
Kentucky (19-2, 8-1 SEC): NET 17, SOS 52
Georgia Amoore tied a school record with 43 points in Kentucky’s 95-86 win at Oklahoma on Sunday. The fifth-year senior, who also leads Division I with 7.5 assists per game, has continued to elevate her play, and the Wildcats are now one win away from their first 20-win season since 2019-20.
Duke (18-5, 9-2 ACC): NET 8, SOS 5
The Blue Devils have a staggering 11 wins over Quads 1-2, but playing a schedule that difficult has also left Duke with five losses, more than any other team seeded as highly.
But the team is still undefeated at home, a good sign heading into Sunday’s clash against the Haley Cavinder-led Miami Hurricanes, who have won two of three games following a 1-7 start to ACC play.
No. 4 seeds
North Carolina (20-4, 8-3 ACC): NET 13, SOS 29
UNC’s best wins this season are against Duke and Kentucky, the two teams directly above it in the bracketology. That may well be an important tiebreaker on Selection Sunday, but for now, North Carolina is just a smidge behind those two teams.
The Tar Heels should be on the lookout for next week’s clash against Virginia Tech, a bubble team whose best remaining opportunity for a resume-building win is that contest.
NC State (18-4, 10-1 ACC): NET 23, SOS 24
Over the past few weeks, we discussed how no ACC team had scored even 60 points against Duke. Apparently, NC State didn’t get the memo, as the Wolfpack won 89-83 at home against the Blue Devils on Monday.
Positioned firmly in the second tier of ACC schools behind Notre Dame, NC State travels to face a steadily rising Florida State team on Sunday.
Tennessee (17-5, 4-5 SEC): NET 11, SOS 7
Now with four Quad-1 wins and no losses outside of the NET top 20, Tennessee and the nation’s second-highest scoring offense (90.6 PPG) heads to LSU looking for revenge and another huge victory.
If the Lady Vols could pull it off, this would arguably be the team’s biggest week since the Pat Summitt era.
Maryland (18-5, 8-4 Big Ten): NET 24, SOS 9
It was another 1-1 week for a Maryland team looking to stop the bleeding. Sunday’s home loss to Illinois was the Terrapins’ first defeat of the season against an unranked team.
The good news is that Maryland only plays unranked teams for the rest of the month, but many of those opponents are still NCAA Tournament teams, and Brenda Frese’s squad has officially run out of wiggle room for maintaining a hosting position.
No. 5 seeds
Alabama (19-5, 6-4 SEC): NET 21, SOS 33
Oklahoma State (18-4, 8-3 Big 12): NET 28, SOS 70
Michigan State (18-4, 8-3 Big Ten): NET 18, SOS 44
Oklahoma (17-6, 5-5 SEC): NET 16, SOS 4
No. 6 seeds
Utah (17-5, 8-3 Big 12): NET 26, SOS 36
California (19-5, 7-4 ACC): NET 35, SOS 49
Creighton (19-4, 11-1 Big East): NET 33, SOS 66
Georgia Tech (19-4, 7-4 ACC): NET 25, SOS 63
No. 7 seeds
Florida State (19-4, 9-2 ACC): NET 19, SOS 71
Vanderbilt (18-6, 5-5 SEC): NET 22, SOS 25
Ole Miss (15-7, 6-4 SEC): NET 14, SOS 10
Baylor (19-5, 9-2 Big 12): NET 20, SOS 73
No. 8 seeds
Iowa (16-7, 6-6 Big Ten): NET 31, SOS 15
West Virginia (18-4, 8-3 Big 12): NET 12, SOS 84
Indiana (15-7, 7-4 Big Ten): NET 37, SOS 19
Illinois (18-5, 8-4): NET 34, SOS 43
No. 9 seeds
Michigan (16-7, 7-5 Big Ten): NET 27, SOS 17
Mississippi State (17-7, 4-6 SEC): NET 32, SOS 31
Nebraska (16-7, 7-5 Big Ten): NET 39, SOS 23
Oregon (16-7, 7-5 Big Ten): NET 38, SOS 12
No. 10 seeds
Louisville (16-7, 9-3 ACC): NET 42, SOS 14
*South Dakota State (20-3, 10-0 Summit): NET 43, SOS 80
*Richmond (19-5, 10-1 Atlantic 10): NET 30, SOS 81
Colorado (16-6, 7-4 Big 12): NET 58, SOS 61
No. 11 seeds
*Columbia (16-4, 7-0 Ivy): NET 44, SOS 85
Harvard (16-3, 5-2 Ivy): NET 36, SOS 156
Iowa State (16-9, 7-5 Big 12): NET 40, SOS 26
Princeton (15-5, 6-1 Ivy): NET 46, SOS 95
Minnesota (18-6, 6-6 Big Ten): NET 29, SOS 74
*Ball State (19-4, 11-0 MAC): NET 60, SOS 111
No. 12 seeds
*James Madison (20-4, 12-0 Sun Belt): NET 53, SOS 93
*UNLV (18-5, 10-1 MWC): NET 48, SOS 154
*Fairfield (18-3, 12-0 MAAC): NET 45, SOS 204
*Belmont (14-7, 9-1 MVC): NET 55, SOS 51
No. 13 seeds
*Montana State (21-2, 11-0 Big Sky): NET 56, SOS 222
*Grand Canyon (21-2, 8-0 WAC): NET 67, SOS 242
*Middle Tennessee (17-6, 9-1 CUSA): NET 51, SOS 99
*Florida Gulf Coast (20-3, 11-0 ASUN): NET 63, SOS 302
No. 14 seeds
*UTSA (19-3, 10-1 AAC): NET 72, SOS 278
*Portland (21-3, 10-3 WCC): NET 73, SOS 345
*Southeast Louisiana (19-3, 13-0 Southland): NET 90, SOS 295
*Norfolk State (20-4, 7-0 MEAC): NET 96, SOS 135
No. 15 seeds
*Purdue Fort Wayne (19-5, 14-0 Horizon): NET 91, SOS 308
*Lehigh (18-4, 9-1 Patriot): NET 89, SOS 309
*Albany (19-4, 9-1 America East): NET 115, SOS 283
*Hawai’i (16-6, 10-2 Big West): NET 130, SOS 258
No. 16 seeds
*Fairleigh Dickinson (18-3, 8-0 NEC): NET 170, SOS 263
*Wofford (14-6, 6-1 SoCon): NET 142, SOS 83
*Eastern Illinois (14-8, 11-2 OVC): NET 167, SOS 112
*North Carolina A&T (12-8, 8-1 CAA): NET 152, SOS 219
*Longwood (16-7, 7-2 Big South): NET 231, SOS 355
*Texas Southern (11-10, 10-0): NET 272, SOS 153
Last Four In
Harvard (16-3, 5-2 Ivy): NET 36, SOS 156
Iowa State (16-9, 7-5 Big 12): NET 40, SOS 26
Princeton (15-5, 6-1 Ivy): NET 46, SOS 95
Minnesota (18-6, 6-6 Big Ten): NET 29, SOS 74
First Four Out
Saint Joseph’s (19-4, 10-2 Atlantic 10): NET 49, SOS 201
Seton Hall (16-6, 8-3 Big East): NET 68, SOS 65
George Mason (20-3, 10-2 Atlantic 10): NET 41, SOS 180
Virginia Tech (15-8, 6-6 ACC): NET 52, SOS 48
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