Postseason ceilings for ACC basketball teams with realistic NCAA Tournament hopes

Quality over quantity.

That’s been the ACC’s postseason basketball formula for the past few seasons. 

The league might be down and getting fewer NCAA Tournament bids than any of the 3 other power conferences or Big East. But the teams that are getting into the field of 68 are making the most of their opportunities.

Last year, 4 of the league’s 5 teams made it to the second week of the tournament; 3 reached the Elite Eight and NC State advanced to the Final Four. The league’s 9 Final Four teams since 2015 are more than any conference, and its 111 overall wins are 28 more than anyone else over that same stretch.

This year is setting up to be more of the same.

While the ACC has only 3 NCAA locks heading into the final month of the regular season and will likely only get 1 – maybe 2 – additional bids beyond that, there’s a realistic possibility of multiple teams making deep runs into March.

And maybe even April.

As we head into the home stretch of the 2024-25 campaign, here’s a look at the realistic postseason ceiling for each team that should be participating in March Madness. And a few of those that still hold out at least realistic hope:

Duke

Record: 20-3 (12-1 ACC). NET: 2.

Don’t let Saturday’s loss at Clemson cast doubt about the Blue Devils. They were beaten on the road by the 2nd-best team in their conference in a game that might have gone to overtime had the kid with the mop at Littlejohn Coliseum done a better job of drying the floor near the Duke basket with 14 seconds to go. Jon Scheyer’s team is long, athletic, versatile and deep. It plays lights-out defense (most of the time) and can beat teams from around the rim and behind the 3-point arc. The Blue Devils have already shown they can stand up to top competition by winning at Arizona and beating recent No. 1 Auburn at home. And, oh yeah, they also have the guy who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft this summer.

Ceiling: National championship.

Louisville

Record: 18-6 (11-2). NET: 28.

After winning only 12 games in the past 2 seasons combined under Kenny Payne, the Cardinals have won 18 so far this season, including 12 of the past 13. Because of a rash of early injuries that have left them thin inside, Pat Kelsey’s team relies as heavily on the 3-point shot as anyone in the country. The Cardinals have the shooters to make it work. Reyne Smith leads the ACC with 91 3-pointers while teammates Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards have 81 more between them. But because they also lack depth and play an aggressive style of defense, they’re susceptible to a tightly-officiated game. That makes Louisville the kind of team that could lose in the opening round as easily as it could make a deep run.

Ceiling: Sweet 16.

Clemson

19-5 (11-2). NET: 30.

Brad Brownell provided the best description of his team’s postseason chances in his postgame press conference following the win that will likely get the Tigers back into the national polls. “When we’re locked in and playing at a high level, doing the things we need to do and preparing the right way,” he said Saturday, “we can play with just about anybody in the country.” They’ve proven that in wins against Duke and Kentucky while 3 of their 5 losses have come in overtime. With an experienced rotation that features 8 juniors, seniors or graduates among the top 9 – including a first-team All-ACC point guard in Chase Hunter and several others that helped take Clemson to the Elite Eight a year ago – the Tigers will be a tough out again this March.

Ceiling: Elite Eight.

SMU

18-5 (9-3). NET: 39.

The Mustangs have quietly played their way into NCAA contention in their first season under coach Andy Enfield and in the ACC. They play a high-intensity, up-tempo style that has produced the highest-scoring team in the league at 82.8 points per game. While they don’t shoot as many 3s as Louisville, they make them with greater frequency. Their 38.9 percentage is the ACC’s best. But while they score a lot, they also allow a lot. They’re only 11th in the conference in scoring defense at 71.5 ppg allowed. SMU still has work to do just to get onto the right side of the bubble with an 0-4 Quad 1 record and only 4 Quad 2 victories.

Ceiling: First round.

North Carolina

Record: 14-10 (7-5) NET: 45.

The best thing the Tar Heels have going for them right now is the words North and Carolina stitched across the front of their jerseys. That and the fact that they have some really good losses. They’re 1-9 in Quad 1 opportunities, with the only victory coming against UCLA at Madison Square Garden in December. They’ll have at least 2 more chances to add to that total at Clemson on Monday and at home against Duke in the regular-season finale. If UNC manages to sneak into the field of 68, its stay there will be determined entirely upon its draw. Hubert Davis’ team has talent in the backcourt to give a higher seed trouble, but it doesn’t have the low-post presence to hold its own against a bigger opponent with a strong inside game.

Ceiling: Second round.

Pittsburgh 

Record: 14-9 (5-7). NET: 47.

The Panthers looked like an NCAA lock back in mid-January. But they haven’t been the same since getting blown out by Duke by 30. They’ve lost 6 of 8 since and are only still within hailing distance of the bubble because of a high NET, inflated by nonconference wins against West Virginia, LSU and Ohio State. Jeff Capel’s team might have to win the ACC Tournament – or at least get to the final – to get in. But it doesn’t figure to stick around long even if it does.

Ceiling: First Four.

Wake Forest 

Record: 18-6 (10-3). NET: 60.

The Deacons have a better record than UNC or Pitt. And just as many Quad 1 wins (against No.2 4 Michigan). But despite what should be a solid NCAA Tournament resume, the analytics just don’t like Steve Forbes’ team. Maybe it’s because it only beat USC Upstate by 5 instead of 25. Or maybe it’s because they’re “Little Wake Forest.” Whatever the reason, the Deacons are a team no one will want to see on their line of the bracket if they do manage to finally end up on the right side of the bubble after 2 near-misses in the past 3 seasons. They have star power in Hunter Sallis, size and grit throughout the lineup. They defend like crazy, which makes them a handful when their shots are falling.

Ceiling: Second round.

Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.