Women’s college basketball bubble watch: Predictions for crowded Big Ten race to tournament

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

As February continues, the bracket and seeding possibilities whittle away. The meat of conference play provides some of the very best basketball and most impactful games that we get throughout the entire season.

None of the top seeds are fully locked in, and there are some incredibly important games before the weekend for determining what the No. 1 and No. 2 seed lines look like. And, hey, we’ll also get the first selection committee Top 16 seed reveal on Sunday, giving some key insight into how the decision-makers view the upper crust of the field.

On Thursday, Kentucky hosts Texas in a massive game. Considering that the SEC currently has a three-way tie for first, and Kentucky sits a game back of the top three, this game could have sizable ramifications for March, similarly to South Carolina and Texas this past weekend.

Following that game comes our first crosstown showdown between UCLA and USC as Big Ten members. I’m still not used to the Big Ten commercial’s map including California, and I might not get to that point until the next sizable conference realignment. Do the Trojans knock off the final undefeated team in the country? Does UCLA increase its hold on the Big Ten with a rivalry win?

ACC

Locks: Notre Dame

Projected in: California, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State

On the bubble: Virginia Tech

Spotlight on: Virginia Tech

After last weekend, Stanford is officially out of bubble watch, entirely unlikely to make it to March Madness without winning the ACC tournament. That leaves Virginia Tech as the lone bubble team in the conference, as Louisville looks fairly solid at this point.

Key wins over Georgia Tech and Louisville bolster the Hokies’ resume. Currently 5-2 against the bottom half, they’ve cemented themselves as the bellwether of the ACC. Virginia Tech takes on North Carolina, Stanford, California, Boston College and Clemson in that order to close the year. Beating three teams in the lower tier would likely be enough for Virginia Tech to get in, but playing UNC and Cal close — or even snagging a game — would go a long way to ensure a tournament appearance in coach Megan Duffy’s first season.

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Big East

Locks: UConn

Projected in: Creighton

On the bubble: Marquette, Seton Hall, Villanova

Spotlight on: Seton Hall

The Pirates are a more defensive-minded, grit-it-out team than in the past few seasons. Jada Eads, their leading scorer during conference play, is a shoo-in for the Big East all-freshman team. Faith Masonius is a jack-of-all-trades point forward in her grad year.

You have to keep your guard up against the Pirates, who are ranked 18th nationally in steals per game while also rarely turning over the ball themselves. Does Seton Hall have a case for March Madness inclusion? My heart says yes, wanting to see this program in the tourney for the first time since 2016, but keeping in line with how the selection committee weighs teams, I’m leaning toward no.

Seton Hall’s best nonconference win was against a solid Cincinnati team (78th in the NET), and while it was good to see them go wire-to-wire and lose to Princeton (another bubble team) might hurt in the long run. The Pirates had some moments against USC and LSU — both No. 2 seeds in our bracket — but the final results (25-point losses) likely will be factors that keep them out of the tournament.

Things are made more difficult for the Pirates with only two teams capable of providing a shot at Quad 1 games in the Big East: Connecticut and Creighton. (Seton Hall has just one more shot in the regular season at a Quad 1 victory when it hosts UConn next week.)

The women’s basketball selection committee didn’t use the quad system last season, but it’s noteworthy that Columbia was the only team to make the tournament at-large without a Quad 1 win. So let’s put it like this, if Seton Hall were to convincingly beat the remainder of its conference opponents and at least play UConn tight, there’s a shot. It’s a long shot, and some luck would be required, but given how murky the bubble picture has been, it’s not impossible.

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Big Ten

Locks: Ohio State, UCLA, USC

Projected in: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon

On the bubble: Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington

Spotlight on: Minnesota

The Golden Gophers are on track for a regular season with more than 20 wins for the first time since 2019 and they sit above .500 in Big Ten play for the first time since 2018. The first season and a half of the Dawn Plitzuweit era has been a success despite multiple injuries to program star Mara Braun.

However, when looking at the NCAA Tournament this year, Minnesota still has to work to build a case for the Big Dance. Though Minnesota’s NET ranking (31) and record (19-6) are strong, the selection committee would likely poke holes with a deeper dive.

All of the Gophers’ nonconference opponents were in Quad 4. Winning no matter who you’re playing matters (and impacts NET), but it’s difficult to take much of that into account when none of those opponents would be auto-bids for their conference at this moment.

Minnesota has shown its mettle, playing good opposition tight (Maryland, Michigan, Iowa) and picking up key wins over Illinois and Indiana. But the Gophers need to secure a signature Quad 1 win or two to fully lock in as a tourney team. To point to a similar case, Marquette last ranked well in the NET with a similarly light nonconference schedule, but got into the field likely by beating Creighton in Big East play — and the Golden Eagles still barely got in as a No. 10 seed. Can Minnesota make some noise against Ohio State in Columbus this week?

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Big 12

Locks: Kansas State, TCU

Projected in: Baylor, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Utah

On the bubble: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa State

Spotlight on: Iowa State

Iowa State is a perfect reminder of why predicting things on paper before a season is so difficult. Although it’s fair to say the Cyclones have underperformed its preseason expectations (while noting the loss of Mackenzie Hare for the season before Big 12 play), some of the expectations may have come too soon.

The Cyclones were solid but were 13-9 at this point last season, owning a 2-4 record in what would count as Quad 1 games this year. Most of Iowa State’s push to wind up a No. 7 seed came from its late-season run, spurred by wins over Kansas State (twice), Baylor and Oklahoma. Without those three weeks, the 2023-24 Cyclones would’ve been in a similar position to this season’s.

It stands out that there isn’t a middle of the Big 12, given the lack of depth in the league. Iowa State is a sort of the separator between the top and bottom of the Big 12, going 0-5 against the teams higher in the standings and undefeated against the teams below it. The Cyclones taking out Colorado recently was huge for adding a decisive win over another bubble team. We’ll find out whether Iowa State can put its best foot forward the rest of February, much like last season.

𝗗𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿 👏

Four 3s and a buzzer beater for @a_jackson2205!!

🌪️🏀🌪️ pic.twitter.com/OugDpUh9R5

— Cyclone Basketball (@CycloneWBB) February 9, 2025

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SEC

Locks: Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Texas

Projected in: Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

On the bubble: Auburn, Florida

Spotlight on: Florida

Texas A&M is unfortunately out of the NCAA Tournament picture at this point, dropping five straight games by double digits since star wing Aicha Coulibaly’s injury. The Aggies had potential after beating Kentucky, but injuries have held them back.

We’re here to talk about the Gators, however, and they’re getting quite close to the same territory as Texas A&M.

Florida’s best win is a toss-up between Clemson and Missouri, both Quad 2 opponents. Can the Gators find something to get them going on defense to close out the year? They’ll have to make a splash as they ranked 14th out of 16 SEC teams in defensive efficiency.

The Gators have talent: Liv McGill is one of the nation’s best freshmen as a poised lead guard with silky shot-making. Ra Shaya Kyle is a consistent matchup problem in the post. Jeriah Warren is having a breakout final year. Laila Reynolds has shown promise as a sophomore wing.

Florida has lost every Quad 1 game by double digits, but it has three more opportunities to pick up a win in those games down the stretch. I’d also keep my eyes peeled on Sunday when the Gators host Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are projected in the field but have been on a tough skid since beating Auburn. This will be a key game for both teams, as neither can afford a loss.

. @mcgiaiviA1 ➡️ @lailaReynolds15

📺https://t.co/mU6OUsCAPd pic.twitter.com/7eUnFxdq4s

— Gators Women’s Basketball (@GatorsWBK) February 7, 2025

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Mid-majors

Locks: None

Projected in: Albany, Ball State, Belmont, Columbia, Fairfield, Fairleigh Dickinson, FGCU, Gonzaga, Harvard, Hawaii, Grand Canyon, James Madison, Lehigh, Lindenwood, Middle Tennessee, Montana State, Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina-Greensboro, Radford, Richmond, Purdue-Fort Wayne, South Dakota State, Southeastern Louisiana, Texas Southern, UNLV, UTSA

On the bubble: Drake, George Mason, Green Bay, Missouri State, Murray State, Northern Arizona, Portland, Princeton, St. Joseph’s, South Florida

Spotlight on: St. Joseph’s

If you haven’t watched the Hawks, I strongly recommend changing that this week as St. Joseph’s travels to Richmond on Thursday to take on the best team in the A-10.

Laura Ziegler has a claim as the best conference player and one of the best among mid-majors, averaging 19 points, 12 rebounds and more than four assists per game. She shoots well from long distance on high volume, is adept at scoring in the post and can play well out of a two-player game. She’s emblematic of St. Joe’s as a team, playing with a ton of versatility and scoring prowess at every position.

I’ve seen the notion thrown around that the A-10 will be a two-bid league, and while that’s a possibility, it isn’t guaranteed. St. Joseph’s and George Mason, the two teams trailing Richmond in the A-10, have strong records and quality NET rankings. However, each lacks a nonconference Quad 1 win, and few opportunities to pick those up remain. St. Joe’s resume was also hurt by a 91-65 loss to fellow bubble team Villanova.

The Hawks are good but need to beat Richmond once in the two remaining regular-season matchups.

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photos of Niamya Holloway and Yarden Garzon: Jevone Moore and Jeffrey Brown / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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