There’s one behemoth, and a bunch of wannabes.
The Los Angeles Dodgers doubled down on their World Series championship with a colossal offseason, creating a monstrous, nine-deep pitching rotation and fortifying a roster that looks primed for a repeat. And their unofficial winter championship is reflected in USA TODAY Sports’ projected win totals for the 2025 season.
Our six-person panel forecasts the Dodgers as the lone 100-game winner, while parity rules everywhere else: Three division winners are projected to win just 86 games, while five American League teams are clustered within four games for the three available wild card berths. A look at our panel’s aggregate record projections:
AL East
They lost one superstar, but the New York Yankees reloaded sufficiently to likely race ahead of the pack and win their third division title in four years … The Baltimore Orioles are projected to slide from 99 to 91 to 87 wins, but a playoff ticket – and perhaps their first postseason win since 2014 – should still be in the offing. … The Toronto Blue Jays have tall tasks ahead of them – retaining Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and snagging a playoff spot after so many foiled free-agent pursuits. … Yes, the Boston Red Sox are better and more closely resemble a serious organization. No, that won’t get them much more than the hope that the roulette wheel lands on red by September’s end … You never discount the Tampa Bay Rays’ ability to surprise, but a lineup with questionable punch may not be able to support a rotation welcoming back Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen.
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AL Central
A moribund division awakened with a roar last year, and now the Detroit Tigers are best positioned to repeat the 2024 success that saw three teams reach the postseason. … It should be a very close race with the Kansas City Royals, who fortified the bullpen with Carlos Estévez and the lineup with Jonathan India and return the rotation troika of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. … Subtracting as the Cleveland Guardians did just won’t get it done in the Central anymore, as a stout bullpen is of little use with a diminished offense and a rotation reliant on Shane Bieber’s smooth return from elbow surgery … There’s always a chance with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober at the front of the rotation, but the cash-strapped Minnesota Twins likely had too docile a winter to keep up with the pack. … Just think: A projected 27% increase in wins would still result in the Chicago White Sox losing 110 games.
AL West
With Nathan Eovaldi re-upped, the Texas Rangers could be devastating should Jacob deGrom be fully operational and Kumar Rocker takes the next step in his progression. … Rolling the wild-card dice is the next logical destination for a Houston Astros team that keeps losing core parts from a franchise that saw its ALCS appearance streak end at seven. … No word on whether retaining Jorge Polanco and adding Donovan Solano made the season-ticket phone lines light up, but it’s safe to say the Seattle Mariners probably didn’t do enough to upgrade an offense that can’t keep up with its sterling pitching staff. … Irony, thy name is Athletics: Just as they begin four years in a minor-league park in West Sacramento the major league product is almost stomachable. … The strange pattern of adding upper middle class free agents to a mix of quick-to-the-majors, low-ceiling position players continues in Anaheim. Or maybe Yusei Kikuchi is in fact the guy to lead the Los Angeles Angels out of the wilderness.
NL East
Sure, they went belly-up in the NLDS against a division rival that proceeded to drop nearly $1 billion on one player, but the Philadelphia Phillies are still the squad to beat here, especially if Jesús Luzardo can stay healthy at the back of the rotation. … Juan Soto totally makes the New York Mets better, but two other free agents will likely determine their fate: Pitchers Sean Manaea and Clay Holmes. … Is this it for the Atlanta Braves? Bounceback years from various sluggers should keep them in the playoff mix, but after a so-far tepid offseason, their margin for error has dwindled. … The Washington Nationals won 71 games the past two seasons and are now pegged for 73. Sounds about right for a franchise that should be augmenting an emerging but still incomplete core. … For all their checkered history, the Miami Marlins have never suffered consecutive 100-loss seasons. So that’s the first order of business for new manager Clayton McCullough.
NL Central
Has the pack finally come back to the Chicago Cubs? Attrition and indifference elsewhere are almost as soothing a balm as renting slugger Kyle Tucker for the year. … We never count out the Milwaukee Brewers, but a third consecutive division title likely hinges on Brandon Woodruff’s smooth return from shoulder surgery. … Keep an eye on the Cincinnati Reds, who could be a different team with Matt McLain and TJ Friedl back from injury-marred seasons. … A weird executive transition from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom has predictably left the St. Louis Cardinals in limbo and Nolan Arenado, for now, reporting to Jupiter. … Paul Skenes and rotation mate Jared Jones give the Pittsburgh Pirates something to build upon, but a bevy of lineup and rotation holes remain in the second of Skenes’ six years of team control.
NL West
Should be a wild training camp battle for that No. 9 starter job for the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose firewall of pitching smooths Rōki Sasaki’s transition to the major leagues. … A real go-for-it vibe with the Arizona Diamondbacks, since this will probably be the only season Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are all in the rotation. They’ll pose some problems for the Dodgers. … Will the San Diego Padres keep it together for one more go? Dylan Cease and Michael King once again provide a nucleus for a playoff team – but would be difference-makers elsewhere if the Padres decide to cut bait. … A new front office regime can’t defy the San Francisco Giants’ magnetic attraction to the .500 mark, even if Willy Adames brightens the clubhouse and lineup. … We’d say don’t sleep on a Colorado Rockies lineup that should bang, but the pitching staff will once again pull them toward the basement.
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