MLB Mailbag: Yankees, Arenado, Adolis, Orioles, Red Sox, Bohm, Robert

This week’s mailbag gets into the Yankees and Nolan Arenado, whether Adolis Garcia will bounce back, the Orioles’ position player surplus, possible Red Sox extensions, fits for Alec Bohm, a pair of hypothetical trade offers, and more.

Ralph asks:

Why are we seeing so many ideas for trades if the Yankees are so close to the threshold? If does not seem that anyone wants to take salary off of the Yankees, so how could they afford Bregman, Arenado or anyone else?

George asks:

The Yankees and Nolan Arenado seem like great fits for each other. Arenado at third would be an upgrade defensively, and he teams back up with Goldy. Jazz moves back to second. With Volpe at short, the infield should be sound defensively.

I know Mo turned down an Arenado for Stroman swap, but perhaps he might reconsider a trade involving Stroman as Spring Training arrives. The Cardinals were rumored to be interested in Clayton Beeter maybe a year or so ago. Also, they could use a right-handed bat.

Do see any pathway forward for a trade that satisfies the needs of both teams?

Daniel asks:

Will the Yankees eventually make a deal for Arenado and dump Stroman to the Cards?

The Yankees’ competitive balance tax payroll sits around $305MM, according to RosterResource.  So they’re already over the last threshold and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar added.  Back in May, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner famously said, “Look, I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially.”  So while the Yankees had a CBT payroll of $316MM in 2024, it’s fair to suggest they won’t go much higher and might simply subtract.

It’s worth keeping in mind that Stroman is not directly tied to Arenado.  The Yankees may simply eat, say, $10-12MM of the $18MM owed to him and enjoy the salary and tax savings.

We touched on this last week, but reporting this offseason has suggested the Yankees’ interest in Arenado ranges from non-existent to modest.  Yesterday, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote, “The New York Yankees have continued to check in on Arenado as well, league sources said, but payroll concerns from both organizations have made a trade unlikely at this point.”

Arenado’s situation seems more tied to Alex Bregman and the Red Sox than anything to do with the Yankees.  Regarding the financial aspect, two days ago, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote, “It’s become apparent how teams want the ticking clock to pressure the Cardinals into covering more salary than the $15 million-$20 million they have expected.”

Before the Cardinals kick in a dime, Arenado’s CBT hit is somewhere below $21.33MM per year, since A) the Rockies are paying $10MM of his remaining $74MM and B) $12MM is deferred without interest until 2032.  We can use $20MM as an estimate here.

There are two related complications with Arenado.  The first: how is he going to perform over the next three years?  Some projection systems say he’ll stick right around 3 WAR in 2025.  On the other end, the aforementioned The Bat X puts him at 1.4 WAR.  Wherever you project for ’25, Arenado’s age-34 season, you’d factor in further decline for his age-35 and 36 campaigns.

In his recent chat, Derrick Goold wrote, “[The Yankees] want to take on the player but have the Cardinals take on the financial risk that Arenado would repeat this past year. That way it was all upside for the Yankees with the ‘value’ of Arenado’s performance. They would be on the hook for what they considered the cost of him producing like he did in 2024, and the Cardinals would cover the rest.”

I’d love to sit down with Brian Cashman and unpack that, because Arenado was worth 2.5 WAR per Baseball-Reference and 3.1 WAR per FanGraphs.  Looking at various free agent position players who signed for one year, such as Gleyber Torres, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, and Max Kepler, the market has paid these types roughly $5-9MM per projected WAR.

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