Two teams in the middle of the crowded Horizon standings meet on Friday night.
Youngstown State will look to avenge a double digit loss at Milwaukee more than a month ago and use its recent hot streak to take care of business as small home favorites. The Penguins are winners of six of its last seven, firmly in the mix for a regular season title, but must win on Friday night to keep pace.
Here’s how to bet on this conference showdown.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 152.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Milwaukee
Themus Fulks: The Milwaukee guard has kept the offense on track, tops in the conference in assist rate this season while also posting a top five assist rate. A physical offense, Fulks sets the ton with his sound ball handling. He is also a 79% free throw shooter this season, averaging 14 points and nearly six assists.
Youngstown State
EJ Farmer: Farmer has been playing well since returning from a four game absence that included the Milwaukee game. With him back for the last eight games, he has scored 17 or more in five of them. He has struggled to find his shot consistently, but there is no denying his ability to get into the teeth of the defense and finish through contact, he’s top 10 in fouls drawn in Horizon play.
The return of Farmer to the roster for this one changes the dynamic quite a bit from the 15-point home win for Milwaukee in the first meeting.
This time around, I like the Penguins to win on its home floor as it has the physicality to match the Panthers on the glass. Milwaukee’s best strength is its ability to win the shot volume battle, leading the Horizon in rebounding percentage while also getting to the free throw line at a top 50 clip.
However, Youngstown State is a sturdy rebounding unit, third in defensive rebounding rate and top half of the league in opponent free throw rate. The team is sound in defending transition, which is where the shaky Milwaukee offense needs to play in to offset some of its halfcourt woes.
On the other side of the ball, the Youngstown State offense should feast inside, tops in the league in two-point field goal percentage. With Farmer back, the Penguins should have far more answers to out-pace the visitors.
I’m taking the cheap moneyline with the home favorite.
PICK: Youngstown State ML (-128, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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