UConn scored a much needed win, rallying to beat Villanova during the week, but the pressure is mounting around the Huskies, who can use a signature win and avenge a recent loss to St. John’s at home by winning at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon.
The Red Storm have become one of the best defenses in the nation, and will look to give the Huskies elite motion offense fits for a second straight game as it looks to fortify its NCAA Tournament resume.
How should we bet on the rematch? Can we expect a similar result as the first game? Here’s my betting outlook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 138.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Connecticut
Alex Karaban: Karaban continues to struggle this season, and that was on full display against St. John’s in the first meeting. The veteran forward scored only three points while missing all five of his three-point shots. He has seen his near-38% three-point shooting from last season drop to 33% this season.
St. John’s
RJ Luis: Luis shined in the first meeting between the two, scoring a game-high 21 points while grabbing seven rebounds. The Big East Player of the Year candidate will look to lead the Red Storm to a season sweep of the Huskies with his ability to dominate inside on both ends.
This total is down four-and-a-half points from the first meeting after the 68-62 St. John’s road win went under the total of 143.
However, I can’t help but look that way again.
The Huskies defense is built to give St. John’s fits as the defense is an elite transition denial unit and strong on the interior, third in field goal percentage allowed near the rim, per Haslametrics.
St. John’s is a non-threat from the perimeter, and the team will struggle yet again to score efficiently after shooting only 40% from the field in the first meeting but feasted off of 18 UConn turnovers.
The Huskies will try to slow this game down and out-execute the Red Storm in the halfcourt, but the team’s shaky ball handling that ranks 145th in the country in terms of turnover rate will struggle against the elite St. John’s ball pressure is 14th in the country in TO%.
This game may be a slog yet again and feature a ton of contested shots as each defense makes the opposing offense uncomfortable. Despite the market adjusting, I’m going to go back to the under again in this one.
PICK: UNDER 138.5 (-105, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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