Arizona State has lost six straight games in the Big 12 and now has a 3-12 record in conference play. The Sun Devils are desperate to string some wins together to try to improve their seeding in the upcoming conference tournament.
Kansas State is in a similar spot, but one that’s not quite as dire. The Wildcats are 7-8 in conference play but with a handful of teams sporting a similar record, a few wins would go a long way for Kansas State.
Let’s dive into the odds and my best bets for this Big 12 matchup.
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Spread
Moneyline
Total: 147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
B.J. Freeman OVER 14.5 Points (-110) via BetMGM
B.J. Freeman has done his best to help Arizona State break its losing streak. He’s averaging 18.4 points per game over his last five contests, well above his set total of 14.5 for this game. He should benefit from facing a Kansas State team that ranks just 120th in the country in defensive efficiency.
Coleman Hawkins UNDER 1.5 3-Point Field Goals Made (-190) via BetMGM
Coleman Hawkins has had a rough season from beyond the arc. He has a three-point field goal percentage of just 30.6% and things won’t get much easier against Arizona State. One of the few bright spots of the Sun Devils is their perimeter defense. They rank 54th in opponent three point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot just 31.3% from beyond the arc.
Arizona State’s metrics are much better than their record indicates this season and I think they’re live underdogs on the road against the Wildcats this afternoon. Kansas State ranks 104th in effective field goal percentage but Arizona State is right behind them at 130th. Defensively, Kansas State outranks Arizona State in defensive efficiency, 120th compared to 141st.
Arizona State ranks 69th in three-point shot rate with 44.2% of its shots coming from beyond the arc. Now, they get to face a Kansas State team that allows their opponents to shoot 33% from beyond the arc, which means the Sun Devils could have a big game from three-point range.
Give me the points with Arizona State on the road.
Pick: Arizona State +6.5 (-110) via BetMGM
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