It was a surprising turn for the SEC last football season with another down year. Then an even stranger thing happened: Nobody got fired.
Or at least no head coaches. A few coordinators were sacrificed, but the 16 head coaches who began the 2024 season will be back. Maybe it’s the coming financial crunch of revenue sharing. Maybe it’s newfound patience and perspective. Or maybe it was a bunch of separate situations that didn’t call for a change in a vacuum.
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If it was just the latter, we can guess what it means: Winter is coming.
In a recent mailbag, a reader asked which teams would have new coaches this time next year. Without predicting which ones — that would be mean — I put the over-under at 3.5. (And I said I probably would bet the over.)
As for who is in the most precarious position — and who seems the safest — here’s a ranking, going from the hottest seat to the coolest:
1. Sam Pittman, Arkansas, sixth year
This is two straight years that Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek has had to confirm Pittman was getting another year. Three times would be a bit much. Pittman, 63, is well liked and earned a lot of credibility turning a moribund program — the Razorbacks were 2-10 the two seasons before he arrived — into a competitive, respectable team. But is that the ceiling under Pittman? And how much does Arkansas aspire for more?
2. Billy Napier, Florida, fourth year
This seemed over in September, and yet somehow Napier made it, with a spark from DJ Lagway being a big help. Who knows, maybe last season was a turning point. But if the Gators have another rough start — and the first-half schedule is rough — Florida has to decide whether to let Napier, 45, ride it out again.
Brent Venables has a 22-17 record in three seasons as Oklahoma’s coach. (Ronald Cortes / Getty Images)
3. Brent Venables, Oklahoma, fourth year
Last season, Venables was allowed to make offensive coordinator Seth Littrell his midseason sacrifice. Maybe new OC Ben Arbuckle can turn things around, and Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione isn’t known for a quick trigger. But the 54-year-old Venables, respected for his defensive chops, is a head coach for the first time. He certainly can’t afford a third 6-7 season.
4. Mark Stoops, Kentucky, 13th year
Stoops, the dean of SEC coaches, earned a lot of credibility in Lexington for making Kentucky a competitive and gritty team. He could retire there if the program stayed like that, especially if it includes upsetting Ole Miss and nearly beating Georgia. But the overall record in 2024 (4-8) was still bad, and Stoops, 57, has squandered some of the credibility with the fans with past comments on their needing to pony up more name, image and likeness money.
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5. Brian Kelly, LSU, fourth year
This is a volatile situation, befitting a volatile coach. Kelly, 63, has been OK at LSU (10-4, then 10-3, then 9-4), but the program he left just played for the national championship under a first-time head coach. If LSU “only” goes 9-3 this year or isn’t a real College Football Playoff contender, patience in Baton Rouge might be up. But there’s still plenty of talent, and there’s a decent chance Kelly will finally have a breakthrough.
6. Hugh Freeze, Auburn, third year
This is another situation with a high range of possibilities. The coach who in his two seasons lost at home to New Mexico State, Vanderbilt and Cal (among others) is perfectly capable of having a horrid third year that spells the end. But Freeze, 55, has recruited well, and if Jackson Arnold ends up being the answer at quarterback, there’s no reason Auburn can’t contend for the Playoff. If it’s more of an in-between season, that’s probably enough to get Freeze another year. Although “probably” depends a lot on what “in between” looks like.
7. Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State, second year
Lebby came in last year with low expectations, yet still disappointed, taking a 5-7 team and going 2-10. Then his starting quarterback, the promising Michael Van Buren Jr., transferred to LSU to be a backup. Lebby, 41, was hired because then-new athletic director Zac Selmon wanted his guy. That can work a couple of ways: Selmon either will stand by his coach for a while, or ambition to get it right will take over.
8. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama, second year
Yes, it’s too early to say DeBoer goes into next year on the hot seat. And it’s a reach to say he needs to make the Playoff. But let’s say it’s an 8-4 season and the team isn’t even in Playoff contention. There will be a lot of antsy fans, worried that DeBoer, 50, just isn’t the right fit or can’t follow the legend. Still, he has won big everywhere he has been.
9. Clark Lea, Vanderbilt, fifth year
After three seasons of struggles, Lea had his breakthrough, and however much credit Diego Pavia gets for it, Lea probably bought himself a few more years. Plus, he also gets Pavia for another year. Either way, the 43-year-old Lea showed proof of concept by getting Vanderbilt its first winning record since 2013, when James Franklin was the coach.
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10. Mike Elko, Texas A&M, second year
It was a very good first season as Elko kept the Aggies in Playoff and SEC championship contention to the final regular-season game. That game, well, it didn’t go so great, as the second of a three-game losing streak to end the season. So the fans are not throwing parades for Elko, 47, but anyone who wins at Duke and then improves the program’s record in the first year has earned some faith.
11. Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri, sixth year
There was hot-seat talk entering the 2023 season, which Drinkwitz cooled considerably by going 11-2 and 10-3. He’s far from in coach-for-life territory, but he has the program in good shape. Drinkwitz, who turns 42 in April, is signed through 2028 on a contract Missouri gave him after the 2023 season.
12. Shane Beamer, South Carolina, fifth year
Last year at this point there were whispers of Beamer’s needing a good season. Well, he got quite a good one. That’s now three winning seasons, which by itself would have been a success, but contending for the Playoff and returning the quarterback who led the way has Beamer, 47, on quite secure ground: South Carolina in January gave him a raise and contract extension through 2030.
13. Josh Heupel, Tennessee, fifth year
Heupel, 46, already has done what athletic director Danny White hired him to do: get Tennessee out of the wilderness. Heupel has done even better, with his 2022 team briefly ascending to No. 1 and last year’s team making the Playoff. The next step, of course, is not getting blown out in the Playoff and making (and maybe winning) an SEC championship. There’s still a question here of Heupel’s ceiling, but he has raised the floor.
14. Steve Sarkisian, Texas, sixth year
Texas has made two straight CFP appearances, and it gave Sarkisian a contract extension after last season that takes the coach, who will turn 51 in March, through the 2031 season. The only thing left to do is win a championship, which is on the table for the Arch Manning-led Longhorns in 2025. Sarkisian is on very secure ground, although this is Texas, so it always will be hard to be the most secure coach in the SEC.
15. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss, sixth year
The only question fans have in Oxford is how long they can hold on to Kiffin. As long as he has been in college football, he’s still only 49, so he might not be in any rush to take one of the legacy jobs. Ole Miss is also doing everything it can to show Kiffin that he can win a championship there, with the collective-fueled 2024 team being one bad loss (ahem, Kentucky) from making it to the Playoff.
16. Kirby Smart, Georgia, 10th year
Smart has two national championship rings, three SEC championships, four CFP appearances and a career record of 105-19. Another season or two of not making it to the national semifinals will have the fans growing restless. But Smart, who just turned 49, has as long a runway as any college football coach.
(Top photos of Sam Pittman, left, and Billy Napier: Wesley Hitt and James Gilbert / Getty Images)
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