On Saturday night, BYU basketball took down the Arizona Wildcats in a 96-95 shootout. It was the first of two consecutive road games in Arizona. The Cougars take on Arizona State in Tempe on Tuesday night. The last time these two teams met, BYU dominated Arizona State 76-56.
KenPom, the industry leader in predictive college basketball analytics, predicted BYU at Arizona State and updated BYU’s projected regular season win total. KenPom gives BYU a 58% chance to win with an expected final score of 76-74.
ESPN BPI is more optimistic about BYU’s chances to win this game compared to KenPom. ESPN BPI gives BYU a 61.7% chance to beat the Sun Devils.
BYU basketball has four games remaining in the regular season. The upcoming game at Arizona State is the second most difficult game remaining according to KenPom. Below are the win probabilities for each of BYU’s remaining games.
KenPom’s projected record for BYU is 21.5-9.5. For BYU, the goal will be to get to 21 wins in the regular season. Getting to 21 wins would put BYU in a very good situation to make the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament.
What does BYU need to do to get to 21 wins? The clearest path to 21 wins would be to protect home court. BYU needs to win at least two out of the last four to get to 21 wins. Going 3-1 over the last four and getting to 22 wins would give BYU a chance to improve its seed line.
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