It’s that time of the year when my arm hair starts standing up on its own. It is like Peter Parker’s “Spidey Sense,” but instead of sensing danger, I sense college basketball upsets in March.
‘Tis the season to sit on the couch, watch five basketball games at once and behold your brackets crumble within hours. To me, that’s true beauty.
Speaking of those brackets crumbling… I figured I should highlight some teams that have the potential to ruin a few people’s days with early upsets. Here are the sleepers that will make deep runs in the NCAA tournament:
Dana’s Ducks
The Oregon Ducks have been one of the most confusing teams in college basketball. Oregon was ranked as high as No. 9 in the country back in December and possesses four top-20 wins, coming against Alabama, Texas A&M, Maryland and, most recently, Wisconsin.
The Ducks’ issue is that they had a stretch from late January into early February where they lost five games in a row. Granted, two of those losses were to top-15 teams in Michigan and Michigan State, but it was the opposite trajectory from where head coach Dana Altman’s teams usually go.
As someone who lived and died with Oregon athletics for 15 years, Altman’s teams usually take a while to get going, but peak late in the regular season. But this year, the Ducks came out flying and have cooled off.
Regardless of the five-game losing streak, Oregon has returned to winning ways with three dubs in a row. The highlight of that stretch came when the Ducks erased a 16-point deficit with under five minutes to play and upset No. 11 Wisconsin last Saturday.
Oregon has had the 12th-hardest schedule in the country, according to Kenpom ratings, and the Ducks have been largely successful against the best of that gauntlet.
The Ducks are led by senior center Nate Bittle and sophomore guard Jackson Shelstad, both of whom are averaging 13.3 points per game as of February 25.
The two Oregon natives have shown up when the Ducks needed them most and displayed that big-game poise again this past weekend, with Bittle dropping 23 points and Shelstad nailing a 25-foot 3-pointer to tie the game with 15 seconds left.
While it’s clear that Oregon can lose to anyone, this team is deadly and with Altman as its coach, the Ducks can also beat anyone. If I am a No. 1 or 2 seed, the last team I want to see in that seven-to-10 range is Oregon.
UC…San Diego?!?!
In their fourth year in the Big West and first year eligible for the NCAA tournament, the Tritons are rolling, and possibly the last UC team you’d expect to be this good.
UCSD was good last year, finishing 21-12 overall and 15-5 in conference play, but, due to NCAA transition rules of having to wait four years after jumping from DI to DII as the Tritons did, UCSD was barred from postseason play.
Now in its first year as a full DI member, UCSD looks set to ruin a few brackets.
Historically speaking, around the 11-12 seed range, teams that do not turn the ball over much are more likely to upset a higher seed. Both James Madison and Yale, who upset Wisconsin and Auburn last year, respectively, rarely turned the ball over, and UC San Diego plays with a similar responsibility on the ball, tied for the least turnovers per game in the country.
The Tritons are 24-4, with two of those losses coming from out-of-conference play to Seattle University and San Diego State.
UCSD’s best win came against Mountain West contender Utah State and the Tritons are currently on a nine-game win streak.
Kenpom ratings agree with this high praise for UCSD, as the Tritons rank 35th in the current adjusted efficiency rankings — one of only four mid-major teams within the top 35.
A lot still needs to happen for UCSD to have its moment. The Tritons likely still have to win the Big West to make the NCAA Tournament, but, if Selection Sunday happened today, I’d take them to beat almost any No. 5 seed.
Certified Loverboy, Certified Missouri Valley Conference-ophile
The only Drake having a good year is the Bulldogs in Des Moines, Iowa, entering this week at 25-3 with a two-game lead in the race for the Missouri Valley Conference.
Drake will be one of the most popular upset picks in the NCAA tournament, as the Bulldogs have been in most brackets in recent years. And while it was still warranted in the past, the prophecy will come to fruition this time.
Head coach Ben McCollum made the jump from DII this year after winning four national championships with Northwest Missouri State and is already being rumored to take a bigger job after this season.
Junior guard Bennett Stirtz followed McCollum from NMSU and hasn’t missed a beat as one of the MVC Player of the Year contenders, averaging 19 points and six rebounds a game for the Bulldogs.
Drake has three wins over Power Five conference opponents: Miami, Kansas State and Vanderbilt.
The Bulldogs dropped only their third conference game of the year this past weekend, losing to another MVC contender in Bradley.
Drake will likely need to win the MVC Tournament in order to make the NCAA tournament, but, if it makes it, this team will be dangerous.
While we have a few weeks to learn a lot more about the NCAA tournament field, these three teams could bust a lot of people’s brackets and make a deep run in the big dance.
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