ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his initial SP+ power rankings for the upcoming 2025 college football season on Thursday.
The metric provides a valuable first look at the sport’s landscape for the upcoming season. Like any other metric, much will change once the games kick off. But SP+ is the industry leader for judging team quality and projecting future performance. For reference, here is how Connelly explains his metric:
A reminder on SP+: It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
The Big Ten’s landscape gains further clarity with the new SP+ release, as well as Connelly’s updated returning production leaderboard. The 2024 season brought significant surprises, with Indiana’s run to the College Football Playoff, Illinois’ 10-win season and USC struggling to make a bowl game. We now have the tools to project whether those performances will repeat in 2025, or which teams are worth circling for this year’s unexpected breakout.
Thursday’s SP+ release means that spring football is right around the corner. It also provides a direct reference point for our early 2025 Big Ten football power rankings. Here is how the metric projects the conference, paired with each team’s returning production mark:
SP+ Rating: -14.6 (No. 116 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 17.7 (No. 121)
- Defensive Rating: 32.3 (No. 99)
Returning Production: 32% (No. 127 overall)
SP+ reflects every other projection for Purdue’s 2025 season. New head coach Barry Odom faces a top-down rebuild, and may enter the season with the worst-ranked team in the Power Four. After a 1-11 season and significant transfer movement, it’s hard to disagree with the position.
17. Northwestern Wildcats
SP+ Rating: -6.1 (No. 87 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 17.6 (No. 122)
- Defensive Rating: 23.7 (No. 40)
Returning Production: 58% (No. 57 overall)
There is a dramatic gap between Northwestern, which barely cracks the nation’s top 90, and Purdue. The Wildcats enter 2025 with stability at head coach, a strong cast of returning players on the defensive side of the football and a projected upgrade at quarterback. That recipe should keep it out of the conference’s bottom spot.
16. Michigan State Spartans
SP+ Rating: -2.2 (No. 76 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 21.0 (No. 107)
- Defensive Rating: 23.2 (No. 37)
Returning Production: 63% (No. 30 overall)
This far from the position that Michigan State fans expect the team to be, even just entering year two of the Jonathan Smith era. Smith is known to build programs, so it’s reasonable to expect a gradual climb. But No. 16 in the conference represents a nightmare scenario. Smith needs results in 2025, or else the program’s lack of stability will continue.
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SP+ Rating: -0.8 (No. 69 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 24.0 (No. 94)
- Defensive Rating: 24.8 (No. 46)
Returning Production: 43% (No. 111 overall)
UCLA still needs to find solid ground under head coach DeShaun Foster. The team played well against a gauntlet schedule in 2024, though lost a majority of that team’s production. 2025 could be a turning point for the program — either Foster’s team builds on its momentum from last season, or it finds itself stuck in the conference’s bottom tier.
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SP+ Rating: -0.2 (No. 67 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 24.7 (No. 87)
- Defensive Rating: 24.9 (No. 47)
Returning Production: 51% (No. 85 overall)
Maryland is an easy pick to finish with Northwestern in the bottom tier of the Big Ten. The team struggled mightily in 2024, then lost several of its best players to the transfer portal, including starting QB Billy Edwards Jr. Mike Locksley would need to do extremely well to turn around the program’s fortunes.
SP+ Rating: 4.6 (No. 43 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 28.7 (No. 50)
- Defensive Rating: 24.1 (No. 42)
Returning Production: 71% (No. 7 overall)
Rutgers could be in for another peak season. It returns most of a team that went 7-6 in 2024, making a bowl game for the second consecutive season. The team did lose star RB Kyle Monangai and nearly its entire secondary. There are big questions on defense entering the season. But for Rutgers’ standards, the program is in a fantastic place.
SP+ Rating: 6.1 (No. 41 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 25.1 (No. 83)
- Defensive Rating: 19.0 (No. 20)
Returning Production: 64% (No. 25 overall)
This is far from where Wisconsin expected to be entering year three under Luke Fickell. It is third in the conference in returning production, though still ranked as a bottom-half unit. That is thanks to a 12-13 record over the last two seasons, including a 5-7 mark in 2024. The program’s 30-year run of consistent winning appears to be over.
11. Washington Huskies
SP+ Rating: 7.3 (No. 38 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 28.5 (No. 54)
- Defensive Rating: 21.2 (No. 29)
Returning Production: 52% (No. 84 overall)
Washington doesn’t rank well in returning production, but the program does have far more stability entering 2025 than it did in 2024. Jedd Fisch gets a full offseason to reload the roster and develop promising QB Demond Williams Jr. I’d expect a big step forward from the Huskies this season.
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10. Minnesota Golden Gophers
SP+ Rating: 7.9 (No. 37 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 23.4 (No. 98)
- Defensive Rating: 15.5 (No. 11)
Returning Production: 62% (No. 40 overall)
In some ways, Minnesota is beginning to take the position previously occupied by Wisconsin — a potential top-30 team with one of the best defenses in the country and a middling offense. That is if all goes right. Minnesota has major questions entering 2025, including underclassman quarterback Drake Lindsey and its defense under new coordinator Danny Collins.
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
SP+ Rating: 8.2 (No. 34 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 24.5 (No. 89)
- Defensive Rating: 16.3 (No. 12)
Returning Production: 60% (No. 50 overall)
SP+ isn’t completely sold on a Nebraska breakthrough in 2025. A lot will depend on the play of sophomore QB Dylan Raiola. He excelled through the first half of 2024, as Nebraska started 5-1, before struggling down the stretch of the year, as the team finished the regular season 1-5. His play is the difference between the team finally returning to prominence.
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SP+ Rating: 9.7 (No. 30 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 35.4 (No. 14)
- Defensive Rating: 25.9 (No. 52)
Returning Production: 46% (No. 97 overall)
This position is far lower than Trojans fans would have expected entering year four under Lincoln Riley. As always, the questions lie on defense. The team should be able to put up points without much of an issue. Taking a step forward defensively is necessary for it to compete in the Big Ten.
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7. Illinois Fighting Illini
SP+ Rating: 11.2 (No. 25 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 30.5 (No. 38)
- Defensive Rating: 19.3 (No. 23)
Returning Production: 76% (No. 3 overall)
Predictive metrics weren’t fond of Illinois last season despite the team’s 9-3 regular season record and bowl win over South Carolina. It returns most of that successful team, including QB Luke Altmyer. I’d bet Illinois takes big strides in SP+ with another season of strong results.
6. Indiana Hoosiers
SP+ Rating: 12.0 (No. 24 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 32.0 (No. 29)
- Defensive Rating: 20.0 (No. 24)
Returning Production: 61% (No. 44 overall)
Indiana should be a major focus of the 2025 season. Its performance will provide a valuable test case for whether programs can instantly reverse multiple decades of losing. The team should still be strong this season, though another double-digit-win campaign would be a lot to ask.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes
SP+ Rating: 12.5 (No. 21 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 27.5 (No. 64)
- Defensive Rating: 15.0 (No. 10)
Returning Production: 57% (No. 65 overall)
Iowa’s profile should look familiar. The team is set to enter the year with one of the best defenses in the sport, although it will do so needing to replace both of its leading tacklers from 2024. The question comes on offense. Coordinator Tim Lester enters his second year leading the unit. South Dakota State transfer QB Mark Gronowski will dictate whether the Hawkeyes can boast an above-average offensive attack for the first time in a half decade.
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4. Michigan Wolverines
SP+ Rating: 17.7 (No. 13 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 28.7 (No. 51)
- Defensive Rating: 11.0 (No. 3)
Returning Production: 64% (No. 29 overall)
Michigan will be a popular breakout pick entering 2025. The team should enter the year with one of the best defenses in the sport. Top 2025 QB Bryce Underwood arrives to possibly right the ship after the team was downright bad at quarterback last season — that is, if he wins the job.
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3. Oregon Ducks
SP+ Rating: 22.6 (No. 6 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 39.5 (No. 3)
- Defensive Rating: 16.9 (No. 15)
Returning Production: No. 44 (66%)
Oregon may have a hard time replicating its terrific 2024 campaign. It lost the majority of its offensive production, including QB Dillon Gabriel, top WR Tez Johnson, TE Terrance Ferguson and RB Jordan James. Dan Lanning’s program is built to last. He shouldn’t have trouble reloading and again finishing near the top of the conference. Another 13-1 campaign, however, may be too much to ask for.
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2. Penn State Nittany Lions
SP+ Rating: 25.3 (No. 3 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 39.1 (No. 4)
- Defensive Rating: 13.8 (No. 7)
Returning Production: 63% (No. 33 overall)
Star QB Drew Allar, RB Nicholas Singleton and RB Kaytron Allen returning to the Nittany Lions in 2025 explains the team’s top offensive rating. It faces significant turnover defensively, although James Franklin’s recent recruiting has the program well-positioned to again boast a strong unit. The question with Penn State rests in its performance against the top teams on its schedule.
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SP+ Rating: 28.0 (No. 1 overall)
- Offensive Rating: 38.6 (No. 6)
- Defensive Rating: 10.6 (No. 2)
Returning Production: 63% (No. 33 overall)
No surprise, Ohio State leads SP+ after its national title run in 2024. The team needs to retool on both sides of the football after losing many of its top contributors to the NFL draft. Ryan Day’s recruiting output makes that a minor issue. The main question is whether underclassman QB Julian Sayin can replicate Will Howard’s terrific 2024 season.
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