The 2025 season closes in and with it comes many enticing storylines across the MLB. From the debut of another star Japanese pitcher to multiple teams playing in minor-league parks, there is certainly no shortage of intrigue. But just for fun, here are 10 more arbitrary storylines to pay attention to this year. While each has a foundation based on stats and/or vibes, I wouldn’t necessarily put money on these coming true.
But, on the off chance they do happen, I’ll be able to say “I told you so!” and pretend that I can see the future. And at a minimum, they should hopefully be able to highlight some good draft-day values in fantasy leagues that are worth the gamble.
Disclaimer: These bold predictions are predominantly centered on redraft roto-style fantasy leagues. Draft position is based on recent NFBC draft data. End-of-year player rankings will use the Fangraphs Auction Calculator.
1. Nick Pivetta Finishes the Season as a Top-25 Starting Pitcher
Going into his age-32 season as a Padre, Nick Pivetta has been a relatively known commodity throughout his career. He’s regularly shown signs of promise while consistently returning a 4.00+ ERA in each of his eight MLB seasons. While these subpar results might make fantasy managers turn a blind eye to Pivetta, he isn’t the same oatmeal-ly pitcher he used to be. Since the start of the 2023 season, Pivetta has quietly struck batters out at the eighth-highest rate in the MLB among starters.
Highest K/9 Among Starters from 2023-2024 with Min. 120 IP
In early June of 2023, Pivetta reportedly discovered the key to his revitalization: an adjustment to his slider, turning it into a sweeper with drastically more horizontal break. Since this discovery, Pivetta gradually tinkered with and worked it into his repertoire, using it alongside his slider in 2023 but leaning on it much more heavily in 2024. Making up 23% of his pitches, this sweeper profiles out well, generating elite chase rates that helped Pivetta finish 60 of his 172 strikeouts in 2024 off the pitch. Unsurprisingly, his K% jumped as he started using the sweeper more. While FanGraphs doesn’t differentiate between sweepers and sliders, his sweeper slowly phased out most of his slider usage and commanded most of his SL-pitch bucket in 2024.
While his ERA over these past two seasons have been career-best marks, they’ve still been over 4.00, disguising the improvements he’s made. The underlying metrics acknowledge these improvements with his SIERA dropping below 3.40 in both seasons. His move into the more pitcher-friendly Petco Park should be beneficial and might help him get even closer to these friendly underlying numbers.
Though Pivetta averages as the SP#61 in NFBC drafts for the 2025 season, he’s posted eerily similar numbers on a per-inning basis to SP#17 Pablo López over the past two seasons. Not quite the workhorse that López is, Pivetta still has the chance to finish the 2025 season as a top-25 pitcher thanks to his elite strikeout rate, strong WHIP, and ERA upside.
2. Michael Conforto has a Resurgent 30-HR/100-RBI Season
After a two-year stint in Oracle Park, Michael Conforto will be getting a change of scenery as he slots into the juggernaut Dodgers offense. He’s projected to bat seventh in this lineup which should still turnover enough for him not to take a big hit to his per-game volume. While he might not have put up the flashiest numbers over his past few seasons, Conforto’s underlying numbers last year paint the picture of a valuable hitter. He continues to hit the ball hard without selling out his contact rate or walk rate.
As a hitter, Conforto should be excited to leave Oracle Park for Dodger Stadium. Over his two seasons with the Giants, Conforto was much more productive in his away games than his home games, evidenced by a 31-point jump in WRC+ when on the road. Albeit a small sample size, Conforto hit high-value pulled fly balls much more often when away from Oracle Park over those two years.
This is likely a conscious effort to avoid targeting Oracle Park’s power-sapping right field, but he should feel more confident hitting them as he goes from Oracle Park’s lefty HR park factor of 77 to Dodger Stadium’s 119. In his new home, Conforto has a chance to update his approach and fully tap into his power potential. While his health is always in question, Conforto has the potential to post a 30 HR/100 RBI season in this high-octane lineup.
3. Tyler Soderstrom Leads the Athletics in Home Runs
One of the most intriguing teams going into this season is the Athletics, and that’s not just because of the new home. This team will field a solid lineup with not just top-end talent but plenty of depth with 6 batters projected for 20+ home runs. While Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers may headline that group, Tyler Soderstrom has sneaky potential to lead the team in home runs.
Down the stretch in 2024 for the Diamondbacks, right-hander Justin Martinez was the primary option for saves while lefty A.J. Puk was used a bit more situationally. Though Torey Luvullo’s comments show a slight lean towards Puk as the team’s closer for 2025, without a big shakeup in their bullpen staff it’s hard to believe they don’t continue maximizing Puk’s usage flexibility. All major projections agree with this and still project Martinez for more saves, even while Puk is the better arm.
This makes predicting Puk’s 2025 fantasy value difficult, as there’s a good chance he gets neither the saves of a closer nor the wins of a starter. But as the MLB gradually moves away from the “workhorse” style of relievers, those with elite ratios and strikeout upsides become more and more relevant in fantasy baseball. By Fangraphs auction dollars last season, many elite non-closer relievers put up top-15 RP values like Jason Adam (green) and Cade Smith (orange).
Though this might not be a perfect portrayal, it does demonstrate how relievers can still provide strong value to fantasy teams without reliance on saves. And while Adam and Smith were fantastic pitchers last year, Puk was even better. After his short early-season scuffle, Puk was top 3 among all of these top-30 relievers in just about everything from June 1st onward. He topped the charts in ERA, WHIP, SIERA, K-BB%, and even innings pitched. If he’s able to keep this pace up through the entire 2025 season, he will return more value than Adam and Smith did last year. Add in a potential for a handful of saves behind Justin Martinez and a top-10 RP season should be easily achievable.
9. Carlos Correa Finishes as a Top-10 SS
Carlos Correa averaging an ADP of 235 as the SS#23 in NFBC drafts is wild. Sure, he’s missed time over the past couple of years due to his lingering plantar fasciitis, but he’s being far too discounted by drafters for his most recent season where he missed about half of the year. While playing just 86 games is certainly not ideal, he reportedly had a healthy offseason and is still expected to play as the everyday shortstop this season. But the Twins will likely be more deliberate in their DH rotations to better manage his condition and help get him off his feet.
Correa confirmed last season that his bat skills have aged like a fine wine by posting elite ratios, counting stats, and home run power en route to a 155 WRC+ year. Going into his age-30 season, he hasn’t shown a susceptibility to typical age-related decline thanks to his elite bat speed and great chase/whiff rates, so there should be no doubts about Correa’s skills going into 2025. With his great per-game production, he was still able to put up a top-20 season among shortstops last season in only half a year’s worth of games. Even if his injury propensity limits his volume this season, he should return value well above his muted ADP and should be a gamble worth taking.
10. Hayden Wesneski Wins 10+ Games for the Astros
Hayden Wesneski has shown some potential in his time with the Cubs before being traded to the Astros as part of the blockbuster Kyle Tucker deal. He’s pitched both as a starter and out of the bullpen for the Cubs with a total of 190 innings over his 3-year MLB career. He throws a strong sweeper as his primary offering, generating high whiff rates and a paltry .235 xwOBA against over his career. His other major offering is his average-pace four-seamer which has been ticking up in velocity over the last few years. While it doesn’t have great shape, it plays up thanks to his elite extension.
Theoretically, the Astros wouldn’t add Wesneski to the Tucker deal if they didn’t have a plan for him. Their strong pitching development group should be able to tinker with Wesneski’s mechanics to get the most out of his abilities. Whether that’s improving his four-seamer shape or moving to better utilize his sinker, Wesneski brings a solid foundation with plenty of room for improvement. Expected to have plenty of volume at the start of the 2025 season, he should be able to solidify himself as a contributor to this Astros team. Wesneski should be able to leverage his above-average 41% Quality Start rate to earn double-digit wins this year for the Astros.
Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire | Designed by Aaron Asbury (@aarongifs on Instagram)
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